John1122

If Eastern Kentucky gets downsloped by the Smokies we are in a Day After Tomorrow Scenario.

GFS is just incredibly dry after the storm this weekend. Tries to get something going in Texas but a 1040H drives straight to Dallas and smashes it.

TV Mets are really just awful. I often wonder if they feel bad inside with what they are saying. This should probably be spoken of as a serious winter threat with the potential that it doesn't happen rather than outright dismissal going on right now. As of now TV Mets are saying "the tops of the mountains may see enough to sled on but no worries anywhere else". The potential impact to the power grid is significant if even half the amount shown by most models gets on trees and power lines. I'm not really confident that any where gets 10+ inches but it looks very possible for some isolated places. I find it odd NWS Nashville is that dismissive of the possibility after parts of their CWA got 8-10 last storm and this one has a higher potential for big totals by all appearances.

Parts of their CWA got 10 inches last storm.

No one is going to stick their neck out before the NWS puts out a winter product.

It won't be in range for another day for the 51 hour run. It won't see the whole event until Friday night or Saturday.

The RAP loves tossing out big runs until about 8 hours before the event. We may see some 2 ft clowns from it.

It's wonky but still has about 10 inches falling here with a freezing rain interlude.

I don't think a Low is going to sit and spin over Mt LeConte for 6 hours but I guess maybe?

There's always a gamble in believing the models 12 hours out, let alone at this range. All you can do is say at this lead, they are about as good as they can get for our forum area. That said, a few years ago the Euro gave me 32 fantasy inches and the NAM 28. I got 1.5 inches as it ended. Above 2500 got 15 inches in that storm. So the thermals were barely off and it bit me hard.

This one is more recent than that one if I recall correctly. It may have even happened last winter. Kentucky reported he was getting freezing rain 20 or 25 miles north of me while I was getting snow. It's very rare but it happened in that case.

Dynamic cooling is generally rate based/top down cooling. It showed very heavy precip falling there but as rain. I don't recall seeing many NW quadrants fall as rain while the southern portion falls as snow.

There was a system in the last few years where it snowed here and was freezing rain in Kentucky. The warm nose ran-up the west side of the Plateau and wrapped into Kentucky. It's in one of the winter storm threads here. Can't remember which right now. But that made some sense from a topographical standpoint. The NAM had freezing rain across the Northern Plateau on the NW side of the storm with snow on the central Plateau and points south.

The NAM showed heavy rain over Tazewell, the snowiest city in the state with an observation station, and heavy snow over the southern valley. I'm not for sure how that would work. But I'll certainly take my chances with it's track.

Another Euro haymaker. No big snow holes here. There would also be sleet in areas.

Euro more progressive, South and East vs 12z through 84. Frozen falling 40 and North.

UKIE.

The big clown is the Canadian. It developed a heavy deform band over the midstate and just went great guns.

A good 100 mile or so shift on the Canadian.

The Canadian went from being entirely north of almost all of Tennessee to making a run at breaking Nashville's all time storm record.

Canadian is just pummeling the mid-state at hour 90.

Through 54 the Canadian is about 50 miles SE of 12z.

GFS is well south and east again vs earlier runs from today when it took the low up into Kentucky on its way to a hand off. Still on the northern edge of guidance and very amped which was a Para bias as mentioned earlier. I wouldn't be surprised if the Canadian is the furthest north suite here at 00z. But I'd guess it's still south of its 12z run the LP crossing Tennessee.

The snow shield is better deeper into the south vs 18z. Deeper into Alabama. The random snow hole over Roane and Loudon County, may be some kind of downsloping off the Plateau. Globals struggle with placement of it though. But if you live in an area that gets downsloping in these events, know it's possible.