John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The RGEM jumped more NW than the NAM. Has a nice 2-4 inch event East of 75.
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I will say this about the storm, it seems oddly warm here to get a deep south ice and snow storm like the one being modeled. Normally we'd have to be in the 10's or low 20s for highs and lows in the 0-5 range for the Florida Panhandle to have a winter weather threat.
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It's the NAM at 84 so not the best, but it's much further N/W with the precip than anything from 12z at hr90.
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I really hope the Canadian is right, because the GFS was one of the most frustrating runs ever. Dry cold while people to the S/E/N/W of the forum area get 6+ inches of snow.
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I'd say that Euro run will just about wrap it up. It's folded to the GFS several times this winter. Unfortunately this one was a fold that takes virtually all of us out of the game except for a few passing flakes, maybe. Not sure if there's any path back this close to the start of the system. Looks like we are gonna get missed to the north with system one, missed to the east with two and if the GFS is to be believed, missed to the south with system 3. The Carolinas will look like Texas last year by early next week.
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The Euro control is just about a clone of the OP.
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I probably won't have any P-Type issues. Remainder are at worst in the 20s during the snow.
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She's a beaut, Clark!
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The Euro is going to be pretty from the Plateau to the mountains. Frigid and snowy.
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18z GFS to 0z GFS. Slight NW shift.
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Looking at it from 06z Sunday, it was probably 25-50 percent light here and Scott Co. Was way light in the Central and So Valley.
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How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it.
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That's a bump from 18z.
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The NAM was a bit west/north with its precip field vs 18z. 18z had frozen in Central NC at 84, 0z at 78 has it over Johnson Co Tennessee.
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Check now. I used a different hosting site.
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Last 4 Euro runs that reach 18z Hr 90. See a trend?
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Some limbs in my area, I went out while it was snowing and knocked snow off my fruit trees. Quite a few trees down county wide. Around 1/3rd of meters in the county were without power most of last night. I lost power for a bit but they got it back before long. Last year it was off for days. The snow compacted because it and the ground were so wet. There's around 1.5 inches of smashed snow that's like an ice block and there is about 3 inches of more fluffy snow on top of it.
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Snow has actually returned this evening and is falling lightly. I believe as the sun sets the DGZ gets lower as the atmosphere cools and squeezes out any remaining moisture. I like any day where I wake up and the trees look like this then when the sun is setting they still look like this. High was 26 today.
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The 18z NAM really blasted Kentucky with the Wednesday into Thursday system. Something to watch for our posters in SE Kentucky into SW VA.
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It's the German model.
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The 3 run trend on the ICON went from barely brushing Hatteras with flakes to snow back to the 75 corridor.
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The GFS is struggling lately at D5.
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MRX map for the event. It's close for here as most of the county is in 4-6 inches or 6+, maybe not quite enough 8-10. LaFollette had areas of 4+ central and west. The 2.9 figure is likely from the east side. Further east toward the Claiborne line it was probably around 2 total.
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The 06z Control for the win! It did indeed show where the 12z op was heading.
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They and WVLT had 2-3 inches across Campbell Co. WVLT at one point went out of their way to say Campbell wouldn't be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning and had 2 inches over most of the county 24 hours out.
