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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The HRRR was giving your area several inches earlier. Good luck!
  2. John1122
    I don't know if it will be right with QPF in my area but the NAM is probably going to miss on changeover. At 10am it has snow on the Plateau and rain in the valley. The Valley appears to have mostly transitioned in areas getting QPF. Heck, I'm actually warmer than some of you way south of me at this point. The top down cooling was very efficient. If you guys get the NAM rates advertised I expect some egg on faces for some forecasters.
  3. John1122
    My humidity is tanking too. I was at 83 percent when the virga started now at 66 percent.
  4. John1122
    Just nothing doing here. I hate the waiting, especially since I've been burned by being too far north multiple times in the last few years.
  5. John1122
    Rogue flurry or two here. Have the upper support temps but not the QPF.
  6. John1122
    Still virga here, nothing coming down to the surface under those returns. It's generally not supposed to reach the ground here until 8-9am anyway.
  7. John1122
    Still virga here.
  8. John1122
    MRX has lifted the SPS, not sure if they are going to issue something else or just not have any products at all.
  9. John1122
    Current 0c 850 is from Jamestown to Greenville roughly. It crashes all the way into Northern Gulf coast states over the next 3-6 hours per modeling.
  10. John1122
    I'm at 34.9 right now. Just need the qpf, MRX mentioned that as being the issue for my area.
  11. John1122
    Returns starting to move overhead. Showing up as snow on radar but not reaching the ground yet.
  12. John1122
    MRX basically says too warm, NAM is wrong etc. Seems to feel this will bust even in areas they forecast snow. I have managed to hold steady in the mid 30s overnight. But they say even though I have 1-2 inches of snow forecast, they aren't confident my area will get enough moisture so didn't bother with a WWA because of the bust potential.
  13. John1122
    Nashville put up winter weather advisories for their Plateau counties. MRX added two counties in SWVA and two on the Southern Plateau to a WWA. None issued elsewhere.
  14. John1122
    06Z NAM produced again. 1-4 inches widespread across the forum from Jackson to Nashville to Knox. Chatty area has rain/mixing issues but still manages some snow.
  15. John1122
    There's so many microclimates here. I wonder if southerly flow is somehow going on there due to terrain or something?
  16. John1122
    European basically held serve with 1-3ish from around Nashville and East. Now cast basically from here on out.
  17. John1122
    The 4z RAP, which is a pretty good model under 8-10 hours with some events, is starting to really key on West Tennessee out in its later range. It appears to be dropping heavy snow under its heavy returns but rain all around it. Creeping down here. DP has shot up. Wet bulb is holding around 32.
  18. John1122
    The 03z RAP that is starting now is also slightly south and less organized looking than the actual radar.
  19. John1122
    Current radar looks better organized/further north than the 00z NAM had it around this timeframe. Probably 50 or so miles north of where it was depicted in Arkansas.
  20. John1122
    Down to 36 now. Not sure how low I'll go before the clouds thicken and the temps stop falling or even rise.
  21. John1122
    I hope we can thread the needle and get a true near forum wide slider. It's a sad world when we get a weak gulf low with overrunning and a 1045+ HP in Iowa and it's not a slam dunk in February. That said, surely QPF won't be an issue. We've constantly out performed short range modeling on QPF for the last several months. Including the first system this week missing by an average of .25-.30 to low imby with that one.
  22. John1122
    37 degrees, humidity rising. Hoping for 2 inches but expecting 1 or less.
  23. John1122
    This station is a few miles from me and 200 feet higher up.
  24. John1122
    I noticed the dp is also 24 in Crossville.
  25. John1122
    High thin cirrus clouds here. Temp is 42.4 degrees 50 percent humidity and falling. Dew point temp is 24.8.
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