EasternLI

I'll believe it when I see it, but we'll see.

Merry Christmas everyone Wishing everyone happiness and good health.

Gefs and the eps trying to shift the MJO a little bit east in extreme clown range. But they've tried this before though too. Just thought I'd make mention of it since both kind of did it this time.

Here we go. This is the little snippet that I remembered reading. It's in this paper. How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models? https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/20/jcliD200024.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display For most models and the reanalysis, the height response over the North Pacific to the QBO is mainly explained by the direct downward-arching of the equatorial stratospheric winds. Specifically, the arching easterlies during EQBO correspond to a high height response in the reanalysis and some models There's also some interesting points regarding the NAO and modeling. Which isn't really surprising as that's always been a fickle area. A strong negative (positive) NAO-like response is observed during EQBO (WQBO) winters in JRA-55 (Fig. 2a; also see Fig. 7 in Gray et al. 2018), while both lobes of the NAO (i.e., the low center in the midlatitude Atlantic and the high center in high latitudes) during EQBO are somewhat underestimated even in the ensemble mean of good models

Yes, I remember that. There was a specific height level of the QBO he focused on for that. I wish I could remember exactly. It doesn't seem to be online anymore. What I'm talking about is something else though. I'm just speculating that maybe the QBO aided the amplitude of the ridge somewhat directly. So we see a record -PNA episode as a result. Just a hypothesis. I'd have to find the paper on that and read it again.

I've been thinking a little bit about that record -PNA business. I think it's actually possible that the QBO could be contributing to the Pacific ridge directly. I remember reading that the QBO actually has a surface reflection. In the form of North Pacific high pressure. But only in EQBO and la Niña. I'll have to dig around for that.

Lol just terrible

I've done quite a bit of reading on the qbo. From what I've gathered, it doesn't quite work that way. I used to think of it in a very similar way. So I understand where you're coming from. Think of it as more of a modulator not so much as a driver. Which can constructively or destructively interfere with, well many various things allegedly. It's actually quite complicated. However, it's starting to be revealed to be quite important. Definitely not fully understood, and is a hot topic of recent and further research. Most notably in more recent research, it has a strong connection with how the mjo is able to propagate, it's amplitude, and ability to have effectiveness. This happens only during boreal winter and is strongly linked. So, for example, we have a la Niña plus EQBO. Research says that because of this, the MJO should be more active. Also, it should be able make it beyond the Maritime Continent barrier. While, under WQBO plus la Niña, that would be the opposite. If it were an el nino, it wouldn't matter for the MJO. But also, the MJO is less effective in those cases. This is just one example, it goes beyond the MJO as well. The MJO relationship has just been the focal point more recently. Here's one recent paper which goes over some of this. Hopefully this is somewhat useful information for you. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2019.1588064

Just wanted to wish you fine folks happy and healthy holidays. I lurk in here often because I think all of you provide some excellent analysis. Cheers

No way. Started a storm thread once and it almost immediately evaporated lol

Of course even a good pattern doesn't need to deliver anything either. But it would help.

This isn't like that. The actual wheels are in motion in 48 hrs. This looks pretty solid IMHO.

Hey, I'm all about the science, but I'm also a giants fan. Other giants fans know what I mean

It's always one liner responses too. Maybe put a little effort into it

Somebody should just start a January thread soon. My mojo sucks, so somebody else lol

Watch the progression. Focus by Japan. The west Pacific Jet extends and shoves the ridge poleward. Going to have to watch that. That's looking kind of legit.

Beautiful example of the wave break there on that.

GFS is doing it too. I think this is what we were seeing on the EPS mean as well.

Hmmm, perhaps the wave break idea is gaining support. Due to Pacific jet extension from high pressure decent in E Asia. This is not the only thing showing this.

So let's take a look at the MJO currently. When I look at this picture, I see that the MJO did in fact propagate east. However, it was shunted to the southern hemisphere just like the NOAA update said was possible due to la Niña. So it has minimal effect where we are. What we're left with, is the anchor by Australia and the feedback loop. But also, the strong subsidence in the Indian ocean. Which is also anchored in place by all of this. Guidance is showing a new wave forming in association with the feedback loop. Just my take on it.

I haven't looked at the eps clusters in a while. But they all have some kind of cold shot around new years. All over the place though, after that.

I always thought that we could get this season to around average snowfall. Haven't seen anything to change my mind on that yet.

Yeah, saw that. I was thinking that could be associated with a wave break. So maybe it gives a little shove when that happens?

I don't see the 00z eps getting to phase 8. Looking like phase 7 still to me throughout that run. What I think we’re seeing is a wave break or two that grabs a piece of that ridge and pushes it poleward. A lot of guidance is showing something like that. So maybe that pushes some of that cold east somewhat for a time. It seems to me as though the same overall pattern is still in place for the most part. At least on that run.

Just noticed this thread. 0.5" in Riverhead Measured 5 locations, all the same.