It certainly has had a tough go of it this summer and not just in our region. But convection is very difficult to model really, especially when you get the setups which had occurred in the Great Plains/Tennessee Valley/Southeast where you know MCSs will develop, but pinpointing exactly where/what time initial development will occur several-plus hours out is highly difficult.
Anyways. we've been outside the HRRR's range but it has been pretty consistent thus far - again, doesn't mean too much because we had seen that before, but if this remains consistent with the 0z run and subsequent runs overnight...that would be a very positive sign.
Need to keep in mind too that we do not need much solar heating in this type of setup.