Ralph Wiggum

He wanted to star gaze I think. I did get some breaks last night and was able to see the grand conjunction. If I hadn't known I would have assumed it was just another planet(s) or star cluster. Pretty cool to have been able to get a glimpse of something though knowing it has been 800 years.

So not only are we waiting for the long awaited -NAO to break down....we are still grasping for a strat warming event to pummel the PV and 'hopefully' have a positive impact and also patiently waiting the lag from the weakening Nina. Ok, cool...got it. So March should rock. @CAPE yes I saw what you wrote and yes I agree. Im just being facetious but you have to admit, all these elements we are waiting to line up then break down and lag patience and this and that are comical.

I value your opinion and concur....hear hear!!

People are suggesting in the disco forum that the sustained -NAO look isnt what we want...its the Archambault when it relaxes. Am I the only one that is picturing the -NAO we've been begging for not relaxing until April? I mean, fail is what we do best so you can't say it's unpossible.

The first step is admitting you have a problem. Imma head out.

Fringed

I think I have BINGO!

You know once the Nina fades and the PAC lag starts to become workable we are going to lose the -NAM right?

Working on a new movie...."The 12z Suite....A Million and One Ways to Fail with Classic HL Blocking"

greenskeeper () putting in OT today!

There he is!! Alive and well I see.

What position do you play for them?

From your keyboard to @WxWatcher007 sickle.

But 95-96!!

Because it is a model guidance at range and not going to nail the surface every time even with a good ul look. Guidance says this period has potential.

Probably won't see a sustained PNA ridge this winter based on enso state. Admittedly the Nina looks to have peaked but we will likely be past prime climo by the time we see lag effect out West wrt the PNA. We will see transient ridging in that area as is evident in recent weeks. But as many including myself have stated earlier in the season, the main wild card will be AO and NAO ridging. Thus far we have seen a tendency for those regions to linger in negative territory. As long as we aren't seeing a sustained PAC firehose destroying any cold air sources, we can score without a +PNA. I dont have specific examples handy attm but they have been posted here in the past. AO and NAO are far more important in this region for snowstorms than a PNA spike. And we can still get MECS in a -PNA especially if the pattern keeps reloading in the AO/NAO zones.

But it isnt perfect. Discard.

Never saw so many ways to fail with an epic block the entire run as the 12z GFS op depicts lol. One of those will work....Im willing to bet on that. Too many vorts moving thru. Probably going to be a period of swift medium range tracking coming up beginning next weekend.

Yes. And if you believe the means it anchors in and meanders around the general NAO region. So hopefully as you said timing and luck can play a role when it ventures into the more favorable areas. GFS op is eye candy wrt HL blocking the entire run and even becomes more favorable farther out. But alas....op at range so salt grains and all that jazz.

The trof is in the Aleutian chain. Thats not a horrible look with a split flow off the West coast.

Just mentioned this in my home forum. Ens means are east-based. That is one way we could waste the good pattern looks on the ops. Unless you have a stable boat and head East.

Is he hugging the Euro op? Because the EPS aren't quite as intense looking as the op. Both GFS/Euro op are more blocky and better positioning but a little far out to be using the op as gospel. If the block is too far East that is one possible way the ripe pattern comes and goes without producing (see GFS op and the pinwheel retrograding fish storm).

HR³ puts down a fresh dusting over extreme SE PA.

Ensembles are beginning to highlight the week following Christmas for a favorable pattern for POTENTIAL winter storm evolution. Front comes thru Christmas morning and associated slp heads towards Nova Scotia and begins to pump a ridge near Southern Greenland over the weekend (east-based -NAO?). By the time Monday the 28th rolls around there is a blocking pattern established in the NAO region (east?). This is the period to watch (Dec 28-Jan 3) as disturbances head across the country and run into the block. Potential is high based on these looks for one of the disturbances to connect IF the blocky looks continue in the NAO. AO is neutral to slight negative, PNA ridge is trying to pump, Aleutian low is present, and there is a weak split flow off the West Coast. All are favorable teleconnections. Keep in mind this doesn't always yield a storm but these are the drivers that many look for when discussing Northeast winter storm potential. GEFS is the most aggressive wrt actually honing in on a specific threat