Ralph Wiggum

We don't need insane vodka cold nor do we want that. Also as many have been stating, pattern doesn't start filtering in until closer to mid month which is after 10 days. Eta: Most of those mean + anomalies occur in the next 6-7 days it appears

Weeklies, analogs, LR ensembles, telleconnections. Whoever would use an op GFS for LR forecasting probably would benefit from a new hobby.

At least 3 individual threats the next 10 days. Mongolian dome of cold already beginning stages of filtering over the pole. So many vorts flying around none of these systems will be realized in the LR....more SR and MR tracking.

This is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. Our standard nickel/dime events. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened

As I posted a few days ago, this is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. maybe a nickel/dime event. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened NAO ridging which is what we want. Patience.

Yeah I'm wondering if we actually enter a clipper pattern (after years without one) under the block/ridge for a bit with some overunning events ejecting out of the SW undercutting the ridge off the W Coast as the blocking relaxes. We've had those patterns before and I have a suspicion we may ne headed that route when the cold finally begins to enter the US after the 15th.

Well, I did say during that storm in a post here to give me that same storm track in January and we can talk. Might get my wish.

Euro loves this system. Too much lol. Over amped and at mouth of Delaware Bay. Fun tracking ahead.

We've had a few bouts of wintry weather over the past 10 days...nothing major but the slowly evolving hemispheric pattern change has been taking place. There should continue to be tracking chances over the next 10 days as well. Suppression may actually be an issue tho (too much of a good thing) until we hit mid month when the EPO and PNA begin to move colder air over into our source regions and the NAO block relaxes. I dont see the HL blocking fading completely this winter....it has become our base state. But we should see ebbs and flows with the AO/NAO as it seesaws between +/- as well as the PNA/EPO doing the same. This has been our base state of the NAM this season so far. Both PAC and ATL will play a dance and I doubt both work together favorably for sustained periods though transiently I could see both sides being very favorable for us. The nice thing thus far is even tho the PAC has been meh, it has not been completely hostile like last year. Long story short, next 10 days will provide a few more tracking chances but the real fun begins mid month onwards as the NAO relaxes and a quasi CPF begins to help our cold air source region in Canada.

PD4

Displaced Alaskan trof/West Coast ridge SSW mucked things up Nina climo March will rock SER flex at end of run

In the discussion forum, some have moved past the threat on the 8th, past the @WxUSAF storm on the 11th/12th, and have started targeting specific events after January 15. Feels like a normal winter around here.

@CAPE How did you fare in this one?

33 and rain here. Never wanted to have to post that but there it is. Happy New Year everyone!!

Next week is looking better across guidance wrt HL blocking and subsequent ridging out west later in the period. Pattern evolution had been showing for a while but now it is getting closer in time and not being kicked later which is a great sign. Key features moving forward are the evolution and progression of a negative west based NAO, disturbances forced under the region, and eventually ridging in the EPO and perhaps PNA regions. First two 500mb maps are the Euro and GEPS showing what I am talking about. The Euro actually has a weak 50/50 in addition to a possible storm signal around day 8ish which is reflected at the surface in the bottom map. We should finally begin to have trackable events within the next few days irt medium and longer range. Eta: ensembles continue the pattern progression with a very active and dare I say "classic" look thru the end of their runs. Euro op has another potentially bigger system brewing after day 10. Let's get thru the next few days and kick 2020 outta here. Happy New Year friends!

Nobody knows how the SSWE will work out.....nobody. Dont be fooled into thinking they do. Yes there are some correlations but many more questions that scientists are still working on answers for.

Funny thing is the PAC begins to look half decent on the GEFS then we completely lose the NAO. So we can get some colder air with sheared out waves in a progressive flow east of the Mississippi.

Dusted .2"

Ghosts of 1994 for interior on the GGEM

Finally into Wiggum rule territory. Worked out on Christmas Eve earlier than normal with flakes the next day. If we can hit 60 this Friday let's get more flakes flying within the next 5 days.

12z suite not very encouraging at all. Maybe time to come to the realization things have changed and we can't even score in a decent pattern anymore. More likely to score in a convoluted fluke regime anymore.

Mesos have snow squalls throughout the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Merry Christmas!!

Same here. Probably came off the dead coyote roadkill across the street from my house.

If it were only 10 days later when we hit 60F the Wiggum Rule would apply and we would likely see flakes within 5 days. However, based on 12z suite we should have ample opportunities moving forward

The problem I am seeing isn't the pattern nor the storm evolution/track. There is simply no anomalous cold air on this side of the N Hemisphere anywhere. I mean, you could argue there are transient BN temps sporadically but overall if you look at the N Hemisphere maps the only real cold air is over in Siberia and Mongolia and not expansive whatsoever. Everywhere else is generally AN to much AN especially in our traditional cold air sources to the N. Could be a year where we have the pattern and the storms but we miss out more times than not on snowfall. If we can get some CPF that would help but I'm sure as soon as we get PAC help the ATL side will turn progressive with no blocking.