Ralph Wiggum

Aside from some flurries Wednesday, next period that is piquing my interest is Dec 11-Dec 16. Looks like the EPO ridge holds, PNA tries to spike, split flow returns out West, stj is active, and the PV is nearby. Hints of blocking at HL on the Atl side across the ens means. Any poor looks continue to remain at day 10 and no closer....a very encouraging sign. Even more encouraging are the ens backing off on the not so great looks and beginning to prolong the promising PAC look. Need to move on from today's debacle.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!

Bomb Cyclone

Weeklies just tossed out the idea of a warm december fwiw and instead try to reestablish HL blocking and CPF. This December is going to be different. @RedSky let me know when you're ready to enter the time machine. $10k no refunds and no coming back

So when do we track? Under 36 hours? Cut us a break Red. Anyway, getting skeptical of this ++ao that is forecast to have staying power. All ens break it down quickly and most now have a strong cpf established first 10 days of December. I'm thinking the ao spike is the PV reflection as it is splitting at the trop level.and migrating across the N Pole to Hudson bay and farther south. Once it splits and crosses that region should see the ao go negative again. Will likely fluctuate thru winter but we are seeing good signs in the right HL spots over and over.

At least 3 trackable events, possibly 4 thru the first week or so of December and some people are already way down the line writing December off and looking to January lol? Some things never change I guess. Peak climo isnt here yet so anything before say the 3rd week of Dec is a bonus. With that said I'm not 'expecting' snow with any of these threats....just saying there are possibilities worth tracking. Definitely not a shutout look moving forward. Maybe a relax/reload of the current pattern as has been well-advertised, but the background state of this coming winter is already showing itself.

33f in Warminster with moderate snow. Light accumulation on grass.

Dont think I would want to be one of the folks tethered to the balloons at the Macy's T-Giving Parade. Looks breezy

I'll just leave this here

Negative NAO pops for a period over the next 4 days before losing traction in the medium range in response to a flexing EPO ridge out West. Split flow continues off the West Coast. Strat PV taking a beating and looks to continue to do so. How that translates down to the trop as a SSWE unfolds in the coming weeks tbd but at the very least should allow for the PV to move around as opposed to be anchored in one gyre over the North Pole. Should be seeing a BN temp regime trying to set up during the last few days of November into December as the EPO ridge takes over the flow out West into the Plains and possibly lead to some CPF eventually spilling East. With that said, Thanksgiving week is and has appeared to be a week of transition irt the overall hemispheric pattern. There was uncertainty as where it would head leading into the start of December but we are beginning to see some agreement among guidance. EPO ridging will be the main player heading into the LR with an active pattern/stj evolving. Whether we can get the Atl side to play nice or the PV sets up over Hudson Bay with little HL blocking keeping the flow fast and furious over the Northern tier and Northeast will be something to watch. Seems the pattern evolution wont be horrible. Could see a clipper-type pattern trying to take shape. If we can get any blocking during such a period would yield greater potential for a slow mover. But alas, cloud talk at this point. This GEFS plot does pose some interest and I believe this is a period that deserves some monitoring as the pattern setup has some potential. 50/50 sets up following the holiday as the EPO ridge flexes allowing for a fresh cold air supply. Some ridging (waning) is still seen over the Eastern NAO region but is slowly being pushed out by a piece of the PV dropping into the Baffin Bay region. A piece of UL energy is moving into the Eastern Plains and there are signs that a +PNA may briefly pop in conjunction. So this is a somewhat threatening look. If the PNA is real and can help force the UL energy farther S and under us that could yield a trackable event. Is a period the keep an eye on as the season is finally upon us.

Right I forgot I'm thinking KDYL.

Hurricane's winter outlook is out. Low solar activity, near normal to slightly above (30-35") snowfall. He and I are on similar pages which that sort of company I will gladly take!! Hurricane's Winter Outlook

@The Iceman Hey, I'm really liking the Flyers core and youth. Should actually make a push this year. Farabee and Frost are exciting. Myers on D has been a welcome piece. TK playing well. Most vets playing solid. I still think Jake needs to go. Losing faith in Ghost too. But I am hearing Patrick is progressing nicely and may return sooner than later.

Any non weather related stuff and/or general banter that may derail the actual obs and weather threads goes here.

But I heard November snows in Iran yield a mild rest of the winter there....kiss of death sorta thing

Typical pattern change/reload/transition look. That is no doubt coming....most ens show this at least starting by day 10. Some bring the current looks back, some flip it.....certainly .mixed signals. Should have some idea about where Dec may head on or around Thanksgiving. I do like some of the recurring themes we have seen most of the fall. Doesnt mean they will hold as a background state this winter though. Lots to be answered.

Was discussing in another forum how the Euro weeklies and seasonal stuff keeps throwing out a strong +NAO/+AO yet the EPS day 10 is completely disagreeing. After last year, I'm trying to mainly focus on Day 10 and under this year...which looks decent. I keep asking myself can such a decent fall pattern with blocking tendencies really hit a wall and flip on itself to such an extreme as the weeklies and seasonal depict? I suppose the answer is yes. However, last year the weeklies and seasonal were touting the epic unicorn of patterns and it never materialized. Could this be the opposite of last year? Lots of questions and we should see some answers over the next several weeks.

18z gfs has a nice storm next Sunday

Man if we could get this look to stay all winter or something remotely close it would just be a matter of time. Anyone else see the 95-96 similarities in this flow?

If you look at the PV both at the trop and strat levels signs indicate the majority of the cold is actually going to be deep into Siberia and on the opposite side of the N Hemi. With that said, if we somehow continue to have the BN cold show it's hand with the PV where it is forecast to propogate, I dont think we will be worrying about it too much as there are signs now (really far out there but something getting sniffed out?) that CPF may establish in December allowing for the Siberian cold to follow behind. I'm sure it wont be wall-to-wall BN temps all winter....we will undoubtedly see the reloads and relaxing at times. But the signals are looking promising for more cold and less 'mild' this winter. We can only hope the looks continue.

Rather active pattern moving forward the next 10 days with several impulses riding the NS and some active disturbances in the stj. Climo says still a little early to get overly optimistic but all the players are entering the field that we would want to see at this time moving towards late November. A few coastal systems and a few reinforcing shots of cold air (think clippers) next week to 10+ days. If this was 3 weeks later and this potential background state can hold, some happy people gonna be posting in here.

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all unanimously advertise a similar day 10 500mb pattern with BN temp regime and the late November "warmup" delayed yet again. Low heights near Aleutians, higher heights in the NAO region and NW coast/W Canada, BN heights Northeast US. Slowly gaining confidence that this is going to be a recurring theme this season. Still a few weeks early though confidence is growing that as we enter December we are going to be tracking.

38F Warminster with flurries

Random Monday morning musings: Another cold/chilly early/mid November morning. Historical data posted in other groups strongly correlates cold Novembers with BN temp DJF in our region (more + correlation farther N and W into PA, less S). Many records broken recently for low temps....shattered even. Tendencies for coastal development off the SE Coast recently and on future guidance. Likely a function of AN gulf stream SSTs and the strong baroclinicity between the colder than usual air mass over the land interacting with said SSTs. Pattern also speaks for itself with trof established over the E and SE. SPV continues to be bullied and pushed around with the TPV splitting and not being able to align/sync with 10hPa level. Seeing PV centers near Siberia, another N Hudson Bay region, and lobe over Europe. Ridge poking N thru Chukchi Sea and into Arctic Circle keeping -AO hopes alive going forward. Hints LR of -NAO re-emerging (continual blocky theme). Aleutian Low remains a feature. Split flow evident off West Coast with one jet into NW US/British Columbia Coast and another undercutting thru old Mexico and across into the SE US. This flat SE ridge is not a bad thing moving forward imo as the pattern reloads IF the N Atl and AO cooperate. As the PNA goes - at times this sets up a gradient flow into December with overrunning systems moving across potentially. That ridge should be a lift mechanism to push precip N. If the AO and NAO cooperate and keep the one PV center in a location to advect cold air into the Northeast, it will be a good Dec pattern coming up with SWF (southwest flow) events providing snow chances for the Northeast. Again, just some musings on this Monday. Not seeing anything too alarming. Was seeing some SE ridge pops on LR ens but again it seems to be balanced but the goings-on over the N Pole and N Atl HL blocking. That's of course if the general ideas hold. Bottom line, I'm certainly not disliking the look moving forward. Maybe a relax/reload in 7-12 days but we can see the neg temp anomalies rebuilding across the Eastern US again after a moderation with the warmest temps into Canada. Not a CPF look (yet) BUT like seeing the neg temps reappearing. An old sage once said, when Canada is warm in December, the lower 48 is generally chilly/cold.