Ralph Wiggum

Not 'every' winter. Dont speak in absolutes. But sure I play things cautiously. I wouldnt call it pessimism. But Ninas require alot of patience especially wrt the SER. There really is no getting around that. This isnt a shut the blinds pattern either....but I guess you skipped the part where I mentioned this incessantly too?

Geez, did you cancel winter already too? Have faith win or lose

USA or draw jumped to +215....all-in

USA +1.5 regular time should be a lock but -390 ugh. USA or tie at -110 seems too easy Decisions decisions

This eggnog at 930am on a saturday is hitting different.

LFG!!

Probably not. But there have been times when it happened...when some oddity like the MJO or rogue Rosby Wave behavior or a SSWE mucks things up. Let's remain cautiously optimistic.....and patient of course.

Aaaannnndd thats enough internet for me for the day:

And whats with these 20 foot skeletons people still have in their front yards from Halloween? Saw like 3 yesterday with Santa hats on them.

I take full accountability for the extended delay in the favorable pattern change. Ever since I tuned up my snowblower Thursday the ens have been delaying things. On a good note, the thing runs clean as new and all my Christmas decorating outdoors was finished at 1030pm last night. The lights look amazing in the umm rain

This is about the time in Nina Decembers where we start tracking the LR breakdown of the pattern change that never actually changed. Hang in there.

When he officially cances winter is when we generally get a trackable storm that hits. We can only hope.

Were you patiently waiting for it?

Deja Vu of last year already. Watching the EPS show a stellar pattern after 300 hours, everyone getting bricked up about it, then watching the EPS caving to the GEFS under 150 hrs is pure comedy honestly. If we kick the can enough times and are patient enough, eventually we will cash in. It might be the coming week, mid month, late month, or even Jan or Feb. But im optimistic with the blocking we are seeing at HL that we will get our chances and will reap the rewards of being patient. ...eventually. i still like dec 10-20 window. I know thats a broad range but with all the changes happening under the nao block, we just cant know.

We're also going to require a credit card on file for security purposes, your birthday, copy of your drivers license, and ss # please.

Thats purdy! Now lets start getting these eps looks post 300 hours to start moving up in time.

Bingo

^^^Real balancing act between the SER flex, a lobe of the TPV sliding along in S Canada, and the NAO. Not going to have the details worked out for another 5 days imo then a couple days to fine tune.

Wave to keep an eye on. Hints among all models but results vary from a southern slider to a nice clean easy event in this region, to a SNE cash-in.

Nice look again in the eps LR. Would be cool to see this start moving up in time and not stuck out past 300hrs+ but you know the game....these looks are great on paper but it's the slightly flawed pattern perfection where we actually cash in (9th-10th ie?)

As per usual as well, something will eventually pop-up in the short-range while the focus in the discussion thread may be focused on the LR.

Mods should add this to hand out like they used to weenie tags:

P05