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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    I strongly approve of the 700mb low track on the GFS.
  2. CT Rain
    We take that. The NAM is pretty similar.
  3. CT Rain
    Pornographic NAM run IMBY
  4. CT Rain
    lol
  5. CT Rain
    We've reached peak "north trend" New England forum.
  6. CT Rain
    I wouldn't read into that much lol
  7. CT Rain
    I've only seen the mean on wxbell - wish they had more products available.
  8. CT Rain
    Is it easily available online?
  9. CT Rain
    What a disaster
  10. CT Rain
    Thinking about a generic 8-16" statewide right now. Just not enough confidence to pin down best banding.
  11. CT Rain
  12. CT Rain
    I feel like the synoptics on the GFS were pretty similar but the evolution of the WCB and associated QPF was way different. Probably wrong. But I do think shearing out the shortwave and letting convection go wild can do some weird things. The NAM, on the other hand, just does the classic huge jump NW with the southern stream.
  13. CT Rain
    Nice call. The southern stream shortwaves always like to come in amped and NW. I guess my biggest concern was always that this thing would get shredded and weaken some as it moved east to prevent the big totals in SNE.
  14. CT Rain
    Maybe I’ll just double my paltry 6”-12” forecast and call it a day.
  15. CT Rain
    That’s a nice ukie look
  16. CT Rain
    Yup
  17. CT Rain
    You can see why the GFS sh*ts the bed with the storm in SNE. 700mb low and warm conveyorbelt just falls apart. Not sure it's right but definitely a caution flag IMO.
  18. CT Rain
    My biggest concern with the GFS is just how everything falls apart as it comes NE. Probably too much but I think a Euro/GFS blend makes sense.
  19. CT Rain
    Storm really falls apart on the GFS once it gets into SNE. That s/w goes into the shredder.
  20. CT Rain
    I mean it's possible. Some hellacious fronto.
  21. CT Rain
    12km NAM is beautiful for the QPF Queens. I do think it's overdone with such a wide swath of that kind of liquid? Seems fairly progressive and not that classic ML lows closing off and pivoting right under us?
  22. CT Rain
    Beast mode on the NAM. Pretty wild look there.
  23. CT Rain
    I wonder if the s/w sort of damping out/getting sheared opens the door for non-hydrostatic stuff to start taking over with convection offshore. We'll have less and less forcing from DCVA as that s/w weakens over SNE but may see convection start running the show over the Gulf Stream and messing with the WCB and other stuff.
  24. CT Rain
    I have a feeling there's going to be a pretty narrow band along the max fgen zone that gets slammed. I doubt it's nearly as widespread as the QPF queens would believe. I could see something like the 18z Euro (narrow band of really good stuff) and less on either side. Not sure, of course, where that band is.
  25. CT Rain
    Yeah I think they were saying that as a reason that confidence is low. I think they changed it last year. They also got rid of Blizzard Watches
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