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CT Rain

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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Looking at the individual HREF members... all of the 12z members are wetter (more QPF) than their 00z counterparts. Worth watching to see if that becomes more of a trend today.
  2. CT Rain
    Would love to hear what the ratios are under that band. If someone can do a core - let me know!
  3. CT Rain
    Subby zone for me and Kev north of that band?
  4. CT Rain
    Southern CT going to get hit hard by that fgen band. Looks good on radar.
  5. CT Rain
    Yeah I like it. We'll see if we get a shuffle today.
  6. CT Rain
    The HREF isn't updating on the SPC site but I went through the 12z members on Pivotal and they look decent. Definitely northwest of the globals but not nearly as big as some of those crazy NAM runs yesterday.
  7. CT Rain
    NAM tickles offshore
  8. CT Rain
    I think the prob snow forecasts really struggle at this range when you've got a large gulf between the global models and mesoscale models. They're not really fine tuned for that. As we get closer at the higher res ensembles come into view we're in better shape.
  9. CT Rain
    The probabilistic snow forecasts are just not good. This does not seem to be a legit 90th percentile forecast for SNE.
  10. CT Rain
    Nice nudge north on the 18z GEFS qpf mean.
  11. CT Rain
    Yeah I showed the WS Watch and said yeah this will come north.
  12. CT Rain
    This looks like one of these storms that is going to keep ticking NW. I'm pretty enthused here. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the hires models win with the amped up southern stream.
  13. CT Rain
    The IBM blend? Yeah I have that available to me - most of the hour-by-hour stuff on air and on our app is driven by their blend.
  14. CT Rain
    I've literally never heard anyone say that before lol
  15. CT Rain
    Yeah and they have figured out bias correction quite well. Their verification scores are pretty remarkable - I believe they're beating NWS for most variables and all times too. Going to have issues with highly anomalous or high impact events though which is where humans add value... otherwise humans FTL.
  16. CT Rain
    It's straight model blend from IBM. They don't even touch it.
  17. CT Rain
    Yeah....
  18. CT Rain
    Midday newscasts are tough to make wholesale changes unless it's a real short term thing. No point in jumping on things before the full suite of 12z guidance and ensembles is in.
  19. CT Rain
    lol
  20. CT Rain
    With a MAUL above and below. We take.
  21. CT Rain
    Also super nice snow growth along that mid level warm front from I-84 corridor up toward Ray.
  22. CT Rain
    I wonder if it's better to just ditch Sunday and see what we can do with the Monday/Tuesday s/w.
  23. CT Rain
    EPS snow probs aren't great but the op is certainly juicy.
  24. CT Rain
    You in Worcester tonight?
  25. CT Rain
    Gotta be concerned for spring water table issues at this rate. Brush fires on the Massif?
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