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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Low 50s for Groton!
  2. CT Rain
    Super cold airmass too.
  3. CT Rain
    2.0" at BDL. Bust here in CT.
  4. CT Rain
    Bust here. 1-3 N CT and little if anything to the south. Meh. Onto the next one.
  5. CT Rain
    HRRR is really paltry for the rest of today.
  6. CT Rain
    GFS is a decent ice storm for Sunday
  7. CT Rain
    Just was looking at that. Certainly a different kind of look than the NAM.
  8. CT Rain
    Will have to watch for a sneaky fluff bomb Thursday and Friday... very deep DGZ. Wouldn't take much to squeeze out an inch or two with minimal QPF.
  9. CT Rain
    Right for the wrong reason lol
  10. CT Rain
    The funny thing was is that the QPF forecasts weren't that bad - and the hires models way too high. I had 0.36" liquid here (5.2" of snow) which was pretty close to the mean on the GEFS/EPS/Euro/GFS and about 50% of the NAM. I wonder if that fronto band really went to town so far to the NW because it really maximized the snow growth zone and you had really efficient dendrite production. It's not like the band put down a ton of liquid - but it managed 15 or 20:1 ratios with efficient flake production.
  11. CT Rain
    Looking at the individual HREF members... all of the 12z members are wetter (more QPF) than their 00z counterparts. Worth watching to see if that becomes more of a trend today.
  12. CT Rain
    Would love to hear what the ratios are under that band. If someone can do a core - let me know!
  13. CT Rain
    Subby zone for me and Kev north of that band?
  14. CT Rain
    Southern CT going to get hit hard by that fgen band. Looks good on radar.
  15. CT Rain
    Yeah I like it. We'll see if we get a shuffle today.
  16. CT Rain
    The HREF isn't updating on the SPC site but I went through the 12z members on Pivotal and they look decent. Definitely northwest of the globals but not nearly as big as some of those crazy NAM runs yesterday.
  17. CT Rain
    NAM tickles offshore
  18. CT Rain
    I think the prob snow forecasts really struggle at this range when you've got a large gulf between the global models and mesoscale models. They're not really fine tuned for that. As we get closer at the higher res ensembles come into view we're in better shape.
  19. CT Rain
    The probabilistic snow forecasts are just not good. This does not seem to be a legit 90th percentile forecast for SNE.
  20. CT Rain
    Nice nudge north on the 18z GEFS qpf mean.
  21. CT Rain
    Yeah I showed the WS Watch and said yeah this will come north.
  22. CT Rain
    This looks like one of these storms that is going to keep ticking NW. I'm pretty enthused here. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the hires models win with the amped up southern stream.
  23. CT Rain
    The IBM blend? Yeah I have that available to me - most of the hour-by-hour stuff on air and on our app is driven by their blend.
  24. CT Rain
    I've literally never heard anyone say that before lol
  25. CT Rain
    Yeah and they have figured out bias correction quite well. Their verification scores are pretty remarkable - I believe they're beating NWS for most variables and all times too. Going to have issues with highly anomalous or high impact events though which is where humans add value... otherwise humans FTL.
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