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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    I think the GEFS and the UK being so far offshore (plus a fairly far east NAM) definitely are red flags today. Want to see some sizable jumps toward the Euro. My gut is a Euro-esque solution is more likely but need some 12z jumps. The Euro isn't quite the king it once was.
  2. CT Rain
    Yeah GGEM looks tucked
  3. CT Rain
    Maybe a bit east with the trough axis too? Anyway if that verifies I'll absolutely lose it.
  4. CT Rain
    Came east a bit. Not great but not a huge change from 18z.
  5. CT Rain
    GFS looks a bit worse to me.
  6. CT Rain
    It's also quite slow compared to the Euro.... and has slowed down from 18z.
  7. CT Rain
    The NAM would be fun.
  8. CT Rain
    Yeah seems slower. I think the op run was too. More along track spread/changes from 12z than a shift east or west.
  9. CT Rain
    The whole thing looked a smidge slower too. Maybe an hour or two slower with the H5 evolution?
  10. CT Rain
    At least at 90h vs 96h it's a smidge NW on this run than the previous run at the surface.
  11. CT Rain
    What the hell is the GFS narcan?
  12. CT Rain
    Yikes. The GEFS are east a decent bit.
  13. CT Rain
    Yeah it does take an extra few ticks to close off and get going.
  14. CT Rain
    Man the Euro is beautiful for me and Kevin. We take.
  15. CT Rain
    Yeah the weird thing with Boxing Day is that the mid level low tracks were actually decent back this way. But those lows were so broad everything was displaced pretty far north and west of the low center.
  16. CT Rain
    I meant prior to this storm lol
  17. CT Rain
    Beast mode. Scooter can stop is complaining... but not quite perfect for us in CT lol
  18. CT Rain
    GFS is definitely sharper and going to phase earlier. Should be better than 6z.
  19. CT Rain
    yup. It ejects the southwest US shortwave just in time. Northern stream s/w looks sharper too.
  20. CT Rain
    I'm still surprised that the 6z GEFS look so ugly. Figured we'd see at least a bit of improvement overnight.
  21. CT Rain
    If this is a Boxing Day redux I’m going to lose my mind.
  22. CT Rain
    We take
  23. CT Rain
    Yeah I think that's the biggest takeaway here... if we can get the phasing right there's some very high end potential. Hopefully we can figure out the southern stream s/w in the next day or so and can eliminate the risk for a whiff.
  24. CT Rain
    Pretty good jog east on the GEFS. Seems like it's within the envelope of possibilities but still a ton of time to go.
  25. CT Rain
    1-3 flakes for Kevin on the GFS?
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