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CT Rain

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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
  2. CT Rain
    The 3-hour increments with rapid boundary layer warming will make the model output for ptype fairly dubious. But yeah, a decent thump of snow before rain.
  3. CT Rain
    Barring a wholesale shift offshore... the retreating high and prolonged easterly flow is going to make it challenging to get >6" of snow south of the Pike. Even if you did track this thing over HVN-BOS for many it's heavy snow to heavy rain. I think a reasonable "best case scenario" for the I-84 corridor is like 3-6 or 4-8" followed by heavy rain. If the entire thing gets shunted offshore then we do better but that seems unlikely right now.
  4. CT Rain
    GFS is a horror show for the weenies.
  5. CT Rain
  6. CT Rain
    Yeah... looks like heavy snow to heavy rain right now. If the antecedent airmass sucked it would be brief snow to rain.
  7. CT Rain
    Yeah the antecedent airmass is pretty tasty.
  8. CT Rain
    It's a really cold antecedent airmass so even the GFS track is probably a decent burst of +SN before we pour.
  9. CT Rain
    Kevin is always excited for a damaging southeaster though.
  10. CT Rain
    We cut.
  11. CT Rain
    Seems like this weekend is a bit of a stretch but man what a tasty pattern D10-D15.
  12. CT Rain
    7.5 in West Hartford melted to 0.50"
  13. CT Rain
    FWIW the HREF members are a bit juicier across SNE at 00z than they were at 12z.
  14. CT Rain
    Oh sorry, I was talking CT. Yeah... still time to get cranking in E Mass especially.
  15. CT Rain
    Seems like the convection is going to be an issue. A bit disappointing to see the RAP/HRRR and the NAM trends but still looks good for 3-6 in many spots in CT.
  16. CT Rain
    I was sort of hyping this afternoon. Definitely hedged high verbally after looking at those model soundings off the GFS/NAM. Hopefully the HRRR is off the mark.
  17. CT Rain
    He's not bad.
  18. CT Rain
    I know. Not really comfortable ditching my 3-6 in Hartford... but a crush/fluff job under that mid level band wouldn't shock me.
  19. CT Rain
    Yes... that has me worried for the Hartford area. Could definitely see a 10" jack in that mid level banding given the MAUL and good snow growth.
  20. CT Rain
    Updated numbers
  21. CT Rain
    Yeah absolutely. What I meant by not a huge impact is you can't look at that SLP spread and think some members are whiffs and 200 miles off ACK and others are tucked in near BID. Definitely a dual low structure which makes those spread graphics a bit more difficult to interpret than a straight synoptic low track question. Given the amount of convection (with intense supercells) the HRRR is blowing up I think the dual low idea is definitely pretty reasonable right now.
  22. CT Rain
    This is definitely an odd look. Can certainly see the EPS struggling with chasing the convection. I actually think even with a really wide spread in those little Ls there's probably not nearly as much spread in the sensible wx impact here. Could certainly see competing lows and a more strung out kind of appearance but the super out to sea solutions are still going to have a weaker low closer to the coast and plenty of snow in SNE.
  23. CT Rain
    The HRRR is ripping supercells over the Gulf Stream. Definitely the reason for the double low and generally unimpressive QPF. Totally disrupts to warm conveyorbelt processes. Meh.
  24. CT Rain
    You can see the RAP closing the H7 low over Long Island Sound. Not a bad look.
  25. CT Rain
    Wouldn't take much to do it with some nice frontogenesis and even a bit of a MAUL. Relatively deep DGZ. When someone gets 0.6" of liquid and 15:1 kinda rates...
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