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CT Rain

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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Yeah absolutely. What I meant by not a huge impact is you can't look at that SLP spread and think some members are whiffs and 200 miles off ACK and others are tucked in near BID. Definitely a dual low structure which makes those spread graphics a bit more difficult to interpret than a straight synoptic low track question. Given the amount of convection (with intense supercells) the HRRR is blowing up I think the dual low idea is definitely pretty reasonable right now.
  2. CT Rain
    This is definitely an odd look. Can certainly see the EPS struggling with chasing the convection. I actually think even with a really wide spread in those little Ls there's probably not nearly as much spread in the sensible wx impact here. Could certainly see competing lows and a more strung out kind of appearance but the super out to sea solutions are still going to have a weaker low closer to the coast and plenty of snow in SNE.
  3. CT Rain
    The HRRR is ripping supercells over the Gulf Stream. Definitely the reason for the double low and generally unimpressive QPF. Totally disrupts to warm conveyorbelt processes. Meh.
  4. CT Rain
    You can see the RAP closing the H7 low over Long Island Sound. Not a bad look.
  5. CT Rain
    Wouldn't take much to do it with some nice frontogenesis and even a bit of a MAUL. Relatively deep DGZ. When someone gets 0.6" of liquid and 15:1 kinda rates...
  6. CT Rain
    Here's my new map.
  7. CT Rain
    Nice MAUL for Hartford on the GFS. We take.
  8. CT Rain
    The 3km NAM was run from Kevin's basement. Total I-84 weenie jack. Definitely looks like some mid level goodies pretty far NW.
  9. CT Rain
    HRRR coming in hot too with a good bump NW from 18z. Nice start to the 00z suite.
  10. CT Rain
    Pretty sizable jump NW on the EPS.
  11. CT Rain
    Euro is a great run for E Mass. Better back here but almost marginally. Also looks like the H7 low closes a bit earlier and tracks pretty close to the south coast. Definitely better.
  12. CT Rain
    How could I not?
  13. CT Rain
    I don't hate that 700mb low track on the NAM. Explains the QPF max/mid level goodies from HFD to BOS.
  14. CT Rain
    There are a lot of nice EPS members to the west... but there are plenty pretty far south and east like what the NAM is showing. Seems like the NAM is well within the reasonable range of solutions.
  15. CT Rain
    I don't see nearly that much QPF
  16. CT Rain
    Looks like a great scooter sh*t streak
  17. CT Rain
    Wouldn't it be amazing if Kevin changed to rain after all?
  18. CT Rain
    Yeah a friend from high school in Essex texted me that they had hail bigger than pea size and it was really loud. I didn't believe him and made him take pictures. Then 15 minutes later he texted again to say it was pouring rain. Meanwhile... it was still snow in Montauk lol
  19. CT Rain
    Yeah - I think the biggest factor is that there was a tremendous amount of convection in that band so you had a lot of latent heat release doing some funky things to the thermal profile. When we had 1/4 mile +SN in Groton and reports of rain and hail on the east side of the mega band we knew something pretty wild was happening. The "asteroid ice" that fell was more like hail than sleet - plenty of riming and also some legit hail characteristics around the updrafts.
  20. CT Rain
    Quickly above freezing on Mount Tolland for a wet Christmas?
  21. CT Rain
    Pretty strong model signal for the last day or two for a really icy start Christmas morning.
  22. CT Rain
    Same on my car this morning! I took a picture too haha
  23. CT Rain
    Even Hartford/Tolland may get a nice thump before pl/zr/ra. Maybe a 1-3 kinda deal for N CT and more north of the Pike?
  24. CT Rain
    Yeah was not expecting the EPS to looks so different. Very little signal for something on Monday.
  25. CT Rain
    Did Kevin lock in 3-6?
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