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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    The coastal flood threat on the Sound is pretty significant. The probabilistic ESTOFS has a median tide of 7.1ft MLLW at New London which is really high for them (highest since Sandy... and before that the last time about 7ft was Hurricane Carol). I'm in Truro for the storm so am pretty stoked to see the wind tomorrow morning at the ocean.
  2. CT Rain
    It's really an ISO issue since Eversource is out of the generation business. They are extremely worried about what will happen if we get a prolonged cold snap - we actually had a call with them earlier this week about it.
  3. CT Rain
    You getting excited to see your lush lawn by midday Monday?
  4. CT Rain
    Yeah agreed. Seems like a reasonable compromise attm.
  5. CT Rain
    Kevin's been texting with extreme displeasure with this map.
  6. CT Rain
    First call
  7. CT Rain
    I would take heavy under on those Euro snow maps down this way. For example by 7z it's already up to 32F in Hartford and only about 0.1" of QPF has fallen at that point. With a rapid changeover you're going to have issues with the snow maps and how they're assigning ptype per 3-hour increment.
  8. CT Rain
    Yeah it looks very windy along the coast. Pretty impressive stuff. Should just miss high tide but it's close down here.
  9. CT Rain
    Probably overdone but starting a snowstorm with strong SE flow at 850mb is not great!
  10. CT Rain
    maybe kevin can begin as rain with mangled flakes? What a nightmare this storm is. Like Will said it's so close to a beautiful setup... a total waste.
  11. CT Rain
    Epicosity.
  12. CT Rain
  13. CT Rain
    Who said we wouldn't get snow? Seems pretty reasonably that many get a couple inches and it washes away.
  14. CT Rain
    I also noticed on the soundings that back this way almost all of the omega was very low... right where the warm advection was maximized (like 850-700mb). For a while even with heavy precip we dried out at like -8c and above. Even if you hold off the boundary layer torch by an hour or two... it wasn't exactly an encouraging sign.
  15. CT Rain
    I bet the weenies reacted with violence. I'll be in Truro for the weekend so I'm all for some damaging gusts Monday AM.
  16. CT Rain
    Imagine living in Connecticut and being excited for snow with a look like this.
  17. CT Rain
    Probably too far west. Tough to get something over the Apps. Still, shows where the best upper level forcing is for the storm track. Well west. Going to be tough to get sig snows 6"+ south of 84/Pike
  18. CT Rain
    Looks like a tick west on the 18z Euro Ensembles.
  19. CT Rain
    For sure. At least for my backyard seems like we're going to have a really hard time preventing the torch as the high retreats and wind cranks out of the E/SE. Farther north up toward the Pike I think there's definitely more room.
  20. CT Rain
    Euro is really warm in the boundary layer. 2m temps at BDL up to +4c at 12z Monday.
  21. CT Rain
    I'm not sure it makes a huge difference south of the Pike... but farther north if you do have a mesolow or some weakness offshore you might be able to hold some boundary layer chill a bit longer.
  22. CT Rain
    It's funny how everyone hated the offshore mesolows on the last storm... but is all about them this storm.
  23. CT Rain
  24. CT Rain
    The 3-hour increments with rapid boundary layer warming will make the model output for ptype fairly dubious. But yeah, a decent thump of snow before rain.
  25. CT Rain
    Barring a wholesale shift offshore... the retreating high and prolonged easterly flow is going to make it challenging to get >6" of snow south of the Pike. Even if you did track this thing over HVN-BOS for many it's heavy snow to heavy rain. I think a reasonable "best case scenario" for the I-84 corridor is like 3-6 or 4-8" followed by heavy rain. If the entire thing gets shunted offshore then we do better but that seems unlikely right now.
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