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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Holy fu*k
  2. CT Rain
    I was actually getting ready to go pick up dinner with Scott and Legro texted me lol
  3. CT Rain
    That was an awesome storm.
  4. CT Rain
    Gotta love the GFS. We cave.
  5. CT Rain
    Yeah I'm happy with our numbers right now. Obviously big error bars here but we'll see.
  6. CT Rain
    Exactly. There's something weird going on. The fact that 30% of the Euro Ens members don't even give Boston 6" shows that this setup is really freaking challenging.
  7. CT Rain
    I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution. The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag. I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.
  8. CT Rain
    The 18z NAM 3km is a disaster. Way east.
  9. CT Rain
    The weird thing is we have seen the spread increase in the EPS fairly dramatically from 00z to 6z to 12z. And it's no just the dual low thing... there are some real eastern outliers that are struggling to get precip even to Boston. Doubt they're right but a few red flags to consider.
  10. CT Rain
    As mentioned the spread in the 12z EPS has only grown larger from 06z and 00z. Not really what you like to see this close to an event. What surprised me was how many members have really ugly solutions. For example, 30% of members have <6" of snow for Boston. That's not an insignificant amount and it has increased from 00z.
  11. CT Rain
    Looks like more along track spread more than anything else.
  12. CT Rain
    700 low track is a bit east for my liking here. BUT that 500mb low track is juicy for us. So a decent look for some deform snow even far west.
  13. CT Rain
    Seems like the goal posts are narrowing now. I think getting >12" here is starting to get pretty tough. We're seeing a tick east with the hugged solutions and a tick west with the OTS ones. I like 6-12" for HVN/HFD to the RI border for now.
  14. CT Rain
    GFS is better. Definitely west some.
  15. CT Rain
    Even the confluence to the north over Canada looks better.
  16. CT Rain
    Appreciate it! Been a weird storm to communicate but feel like we can still provide context/value that you can’t get on an app.
  17. CT Rain
    Thanks yeah. I didn’t want to show the same stuff I’ve been showing. Figured it was a different way to express the uncertainty which is definitely higher than normal.
  18. CT Rain
    I showed the NWS 10th/90th percentile forecasts. First time I've ever done that lol
  19. CT Rain
    Jesus. GFS is east.
  20. CT Rain
    Yes but this is definitely more uncertain than most. The 10th/90th percentile NWS forecasts tell the story well with 0" to 18" in Hartford.
  21. CT Rain
    Well that's a weird evolution but damn close to a monster hit in SNE.
  22. CT Rain
    Ha- I did the same.
  23. CT Rain
    I didn't. I had one ready to go and pulled it right before the 4.
  24. CT Rain
    Yeah that's a pretty good jump west on the EPS. Didn't expect to see that at all.
  25. CT Rain
    Over/Under for Tolland? 3"?
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