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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Always looked a lot better out your way
  2. CT Rain
    Well 8-12" isnt nothing.
  3. CT Rain
  4. CT Rain
    It's probably using SLRs that are a bit too high and it is time lagged so that crazy ARW run from 12z is in there.
  5. CT Rain
    That H7 low is pretty enlongated on the NAM. Sort of a weird look. The Queens will be disappointed though... only like 0.8"-1.0" QPF for Hartford County.
  6. CT Rain
    NAM looks really good I think. It consolidates things in time. Looks pretty hellacious for many. Still on the fence back here but H7/H5 low tracks look good for 10 or 12" of mid level magic around Hartford.
  7. CT Rain
    RAP looks a bit better comparing 21z to 00z. A bit farther west with mid level features.
  8. CT Rain
    HRRR definitely looks better with the surface low consolidating a better just east of the elbow.
  9. CT Rain
    Loving the Euro. Let's do this.
  10. CT Rain
    This also looks a lot better for E Mass/Boston than back this way so I think it's an easier call out that way.
  11. CT Rain
    I do think leading up to these storms the NWS/TV have a hard time sort of resetting when there's a trend toward a bust or more caution flags as the event nears. Ramping up is easy but no one wants to back down. After all the trends today this does not look like the same storm I was expecting when I went today... but you wouldn't know that from watching TV or reading that BOX AFD. I could definitely be wrong but there are far more caution flags right now than things that make me super stoked.
  12. CT Rain
    It is strange to see a lot of the TV people ramping up and the BOX AFD bordering on Armageddon. I don't really see it after the 12z runs and the data since - particularly in the Hartford area. Running with a 12-20" total was just too much for me given the guidance. Even getting more than a foot seems like a challenge at this point. I do like the look for S CT look for a nice burst overnight.
  13. CT Rain
    I've been thinking that.
  14. CT Rain
    Yeah it's not like it's just the 3km NAM and the ARW chasing the convection offshore and everything else is big. The Euro, GFS, etc are trending toward trash.
  15. CT Rain
    I love the enthusiasm... but that BOX AFD seems completely divorced from the reality of every piece of guidance today.
  16. CT Rain
    GFS is a disaster
  17. CT Rain
    Appreciate it. Seems like there's still quite a bit of uncertainty here.
  18. CT Rain
    Yeah I agree with this. The jet stream evolution just screams a crusher for most of SNE but that convection over the Gulf Stream wants to screw us. Seems like this is just going to wind up being a weird evolution overall.. and it has definitely sped up a lot.
  19. CT Rain
    That may or may not have been done on my second pass. bahahahahaha
  20. CT Rain
    Here's my latest.
  21. CT Rain
    Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here.
  22. CT Rain
    It's a super bizarre evolution. Like the HRRR has a nasty 500mb dry slot over Providence and Boston with the SLP center way outside of the benchmark. This one is going to look very very weird I think.
  23. CT Rain
    Yes - I actually feel better about the south coast. Seems like everything wants to close up and track a bit SE. I think LI and coastal CT could do very well.
  24. CT Rain
    Really bizarre to see the surface low waaaaay out of the benchmark and the 700mb low tucked so close to the coast. Not really sure what to make of it.
  25. CT Rain
    The 18z HRRR is so far southeast with these double barrel lows near the convection. It's a really really odd evolution.
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