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CT Rain

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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    The GFS is really insistent on some pesky dry air around 850mb underneath the good H7 fronto.
  2. CT Rain
    Wow - yeah. Didn't expect to see that.
  3. CT Rain
    Maybe - but there's not a ton of cold to the north of us right now. Springfield VT in the valley there is 33/30 and Keene NH is 37/37. Going to take some time. Not like we have a ton of cold just luring north of the Pike to advect in.
  4. CT Rain
    Yea I feel like the 12k/3k NAM are easy closing calls. Gets pretty cold pretty quickly.
  5. CT Rain
    FWIW for the ice lovers south of the Pike... the 00z NAM is quite a bit colder (and faster) than the 18z was.
  6. CT Rain
    There is a big push down the Hudson Valley. Albany is already 28/25 but it's quite a bit milder in S VT at a higher latitude. Even the global models have picked up on this... pretty impressive.
  7. CT Rain
    Tomorrow afternoon is looking sort of gnarly. NAM nest is upper 20s by 18z for N CT with an additional 0.25" of liquid between 18z and 00z. Seems like a pretty nasty glaze/pingers. A lot of the morning drive we may rot around 33F.
  8. CT Rain
    The cold push is looking less and less impressive around here tomorrow morning. Seems like we sort of rot at 32/33F for a while. Definitely not a flash freeze look.
  9. CT Rain
    Hate to see it. 32F at BDL with 50F and snow eating fog at KTOL by 8z?
  10. CT Rain
    All the models (even the globals) really like the Hudson River drain and into W CT too.
  11. CT Rain
    I've noticed over the past couple years some of the HREF members tend to be a bit too cold at 2m and can over-do the low level drain down the valleys here in CT. But it is definitely interesting seeing the 12z HREF mean solidly below freezing in Hartford at 12z while HRRR/3km NAM (which are both HREF members) much slower. Shows you how frigid those other members are. I'm hoping by later today we have a better sense of where that weak wave forms to our southwest and where the front sets up.
  12. CT Rain
    It's also so weird to see the GFS now colder than other models at 2m for a winter storm. For so long we were used to just tossing its furnace solutions.
  13. CT Rain
    Ugh - feel better. I slipped on ice on the Cape a couples weekends ago and sprained my ankle really badly. Blah.
  14. CT Rain
    He's 0 for 3 so far.
  15. CT Rain
    HRRR is close to a straight rainer south of the Pike lol
  16. CT Rain
    Kevin gets 50F for his morning run on the HRRR.
  17. CT Rain
    Yeah it's warm.
  18. CT Rain
    Yeah. A lot warmer than everything else.
  19. CT Rain
    Yeah I was using 3km NAM temps and ptype.
  20. CT Rain
    hahaha. I know it was hard not to.
  21. CT Rain
    Whoaaaaaaa
  22. CT Rain
    Verbatim it's a lot of nothing for you.
  23. CT Rain
    Yeah obviously there are some storms where there will be a clear "winner"... but in general I think the differences are overplayed and taking a blend is a pretty good approach more often than not.
  24. CT Rain
    The GFS also had 20" of snow for some of us 2 days ago. It hasn't been perfect either. The GFS/Euro debate is sort of funny now that the GFS has improved some and the Euro has done some weird things of late. Seems like in almost all of these cases a blend between the two (even 50/50) with a nod to the mesoscale models when appropriate is a really good way to go.
  25. CT Rain
    Still has more of a "fropa" look than it did on some of those earlier runs though. It is interesting to see the high res/mesoscale models all over the place. Seems like the front placement and where (if?) we get a wave along it will be key.
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