INteresting to see the snow probabilities from the NBM and WPC be so low too. Basically <10% chance of >1" of snow for Tolland/Union. Even NW CT is pretty low.
Yeah it's close. Was thinking the easterly flow probably hurts him a bit compared to NW CT. Even the hires models (3km NAM/HRRR) are a good 2F cooler at 2m to the west. Seems like some longitude assist WOR.
Yeah it can't go too crazy given the upper level setup. Not like we're getting a crazy bomb that's closing off at 500mb. It's sort of a SWFE with some redevelopment off the coast.
My worry with that is they're just weaker which isn't really great either. Not sure the op GFS would get it done with a weaker and more strung out system.
Yeah you can see that on the model 2m temps... there's definitely a bit of longitude assist there.
I think Litchfield Hills and Berkshires will do very well being a bit farther west plus some upslope assist/cooling.