CT Rain
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Everything posted by CT Rain
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HREF with a nice little Sound Effect Snowstorm for SE CT and S RI
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Looks like around daybreak with the warm front and then near cold fropa. But in the warm sector mixing looks pretty good so could be pretty gusty then as well.
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In Hartford? 50+ wouldn't surprise me.
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00z models definitely increased the wind threat here in CT some. Pretty nasty looking signal tomorrow. Also, a bit more concerned about the coastal flooding with less of a lull modeled around high tide tomorrow morning.
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3km NAM really loves the convection along the warm front.
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It's weird.
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No. The numbers are hard coded into their matrix. So a Level 4 event is by definition 125-380k outages. It's not hype it's completely reasonable.
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If I was them I'd do the same. 125k is not a crazy outage number for CT. They have to file the "Level 4" with PURA before the storm and they had a really hard time as it is getting crews in from outside because this storm was so expansive. Seems like a reasonable worst case scenario to me.
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No. It's CT. But it's also a bad headline. They're predicting a Level 4 event which would mean 125k-380k without power.
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Yeah for sure they're overshooting. Most likely scenario is widespread advisory and scattered outages but there is definitely some potential for some higher end stuff with convection.
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Yeah I have 50-60 mph gusts. Saying widespread outages as that's what Eversource is saying and to prepare people for the holidays. I do think there's the chance for some bigger gusts in/around convection but that can always be tough to accomplish.
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I'm neither excited nor going big.
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Probably not going to lose much pack up north but rapid temp drop is going to turn it to a glacier. Maybe a bit better end of the week as temperatures warm a bit and the snow softens some?
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Could see 1-2" of Sound Effect Snow SE CT and South County RI
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I don't get the "wind forecasts always underperform" thing. I feel like most of our forecasts verify fairly well at the ASOS stations. If you're looking at the HRRR/Euro or whatever raw model output though and taking that as a forecast you're going to be disappointed.
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Yeah could be impressive. Wave action on a southerly wind always creates more issues than you’d expect with a given tide level.
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A nice setup for the south coast with OES... even as far west at SE CT.
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A few opportunities too. Convection along the warm front, better low level lapse rates after the warm fropa with a bit of warming, and then possible violence on the cold front. Pretty interesting setup.
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NAM/HRRR definitely have trended toward a more impressive wind event in SNE. It may rock in some towns tomorrow AM.
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The NAM is quite lame as has been mentioned.
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Maybe disaster averted for NNE? Looks like some snow on the front and back end and dew points struggle past 45F.
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These are about as impressive as you'll see. Also... 60 knots at top of the mixed layer out of the NW as the storm passes. GFS may be too well mixed (and NAM too inverted) - but throw in some convection this definitely is worth watching.
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I get it. In 17 years here I've never had anyone tell me or even implicitly pressure me to change the forecast. In fact more often than not if the forecast changes for the worse (tornadoes, more snow, higher winds) it's met with groans and annoyance by everyone in the newsroom as it means more work, longer days, etc. It's sort of funny but it's actually the opposite of what most people probably think goes on.
