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CT Rain

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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Yeah it's not like it's just the 3km NAM and the ARW chasing the convection offshore and everything else is big. The Euro, GFS, etc are trending toward trash.
  2. CT Rain
    I love the enthusiasm... but that BOX AFD seems completely divorced from the reality of every piece of guidance today.
  3. CT Rain
    GFS is a disaster
  4. CT Rain
    Appreciate it. Seems like there's still quite a bit of uncertainty here.
  5. CT Rain
    Yeah I agree with this. The jet stream evolution just screams a crusher for most of SNE but that convection over the Gulf Stream wants to screw us. Seems like this is just going to wind up being a weird evolution overall.. and it has definitely sped up a lot.
  6. CT Rain
    That may or may not have been done on my second pass. bahahahahaha
  7. CT Rain
    Here's my latest.
  8. CT Rain
    Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here.
  9. CT Rain
    It's a super bizarre evolution. Like the HRRR has a nasty 500mb dry slot over Providence and Boston with the SLP center way outside of the benchmark. This one is going to look very very weird I think.
  10. CT Rain
    Yes - I actually feel better about the south coast. Seems like everything wants to close up and track a bit SE. I think LI and coastal CT could do very well.
  11. CT Rain
    Really bizarre to see the surface low waaaaay out of the benchmark and the 700mb low tucked so close to the coast. Not really sure what to make of it.
  12. CT Rain
    The 18z HRRR is so far southeast with these double barrel lows near the convection. It's a really really odd evolution.
  13. CT Rain
    I think I'm too high in the Hartford area. Hard to keep 12-20" when you have a pretty notable jump east with the mid level low centers especially.
  14. CT Rain
    Pretty sizable jump east on the EPS with with the low center and total QPF.
  15. CT Rain
    Yikes. What a nightmare. H7 low track looks ok early on back here but damn.
  16. CT Rain
    The Reggie looks like ass.
  17. CT Rain
    The omega thump on that band and even down toward Hartford is at like 400mb. Don't like that.
  18. CT Rain
    Lopped like 40% off your QPF
  19. CT Rain
    I agree with this. Still TBD. Also figuring out where the subby zone is just east of the big time deform snows.
  20. CT Rain
    Given that H7/H5 low track some mid level goodies back this way I think. Great run. See you all tomorrow.
  21. CT Rain
    One reason to be bullish back to the west into CT and LI... even the GFS with its wonky depiction has a great look to the west. In fact it introduces dry slot issues for Boston. Check out the 300K isentropic surface at 18z. I also attached an area averaged sounding for SE Mass.
  22. CT Rain
    The GFS is about 1" of liquid for HFD/HVN. Given the fact it's busy bumping west and catching up with everything else you have to give the nod to the Euro. Given somewhat better than 10:1 ratios even a straight GFS/Euro compromise would get you 12-20.
  23. CT Rain
    We chucked on TV.
  24. CT Rain
    Big QPF jump on the GFS ensembles from 18z to 00z. Sort of time to toss them since they've been trash.
  25. CT Rain
    New call. Big jump at 11!
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