CT Rain

Yeah, I think the lockdowns and mask mandates made sense at the time. Now that most people >65 have been vaccinated the rationale for keeping strict restrictions in place becomes more tenuous. The goal was to flatten the curve to prevent the health care system from collapsing and that worked. Now that the vulnerable have a growing level of protection time to open up. I still think mask mandates in public when you can't maintain distance makes sense... and it doesn't make sense to open nightclubs at 100% capacity.

Dual pol showed that beautifully. Nice surge north with the warm layer in the boundary layer.

The NAM is very close to something fun for interior areas on Monday.

You are such a baby. Right now you're under like 5 dbz radar returns. Has your visibility dropped below 4 mile?

lol yeah the high res models all had that band tickling the coast. No surprise here.

You may get some sleet in a bit actually. Radar shows a pretty good surge north in the melting layer through N NJ and SE NY.

Kevin finally gets his 48 hour snow event on the GFS

Am I the only meteorologist who has never once pulled up the ICON?

Both. I mean just sort of weak and strung out.

HRRR is a dumpster fire. Time to move on to Morch.

Ummm

There are a few big ensemble members in there. Worth watching.

It was closer to an inch and they were hit hard.

For sure. We've had a couple decent events in CT over the last few years where we've been able to fine tune the impacts with certain flat ice amounts thanks to the ASOS I group. Once you get to 0.5" you start seeing some limbs snap and outages and over 0.75" it starts to get more significant.

Yup for sure. I mean I guess it could always bump up but a quick thump probably doesn't get it done. Also the NWS is now forecasting straight "flat ice" accretion. No more radial. So 0.5" of flat ice accretion is the new warning threshold but you won't start seeing major impacts until at least 0.75" and probably more like 1.0" Radial ice = flat ice * 0.4

We're sort of QPF limited for a big ice storm here. 0.5"-1.0" of all ZR will cause some issues but definitely short of what you need for the ice storm that Kevin dreams about.

Low 50s for Groton!

Super cold airmass too.

2.0" at BDL. Bust here in CT.

Bust here. 1-3 N CT and little if anything to the south. Meh. Onto the next one.

HRRR is really paltry for the rest of today.

GFS is a decent ice storm for Sunday

Just was looking at that. Certainly a different kind of look than the NAM.

Will have to watch for a sneaky fluff bomb Thursday and Friday... very deep DGZ. Wouldn't take much to squeeze out an inch or two with minimal QPF.