What's sort of interesting about this storm in general is that decent mixing in the boundary layer is progged. Very rare to see on a southerly flow event.
Definitely could be an active day in SE NY and CT. Low level wind fields strengthen through the day and we're talking about 200-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH. Plenty of CAPE behind the warm front as well. As long as convection can fire up (not a ton of a synoptic scale trigger) there is certainly a tornado threat.
This morning sort of reminds me of 7/1/2013.
It also has to strengthen some. A 1002 mb low over BDR isn't going to be very exciting.
If the UKMet is right with something in the mid 980s then we'll have more of an opportunity for fun.
lol no kidding. If this goes too far west I'd be worried about missing out on rain.
Do think there's a risk for some tornadoes east of the storm's path and at least some gusty wind particularly south coast. Not a huge storm but may be fun for some.
cool look with the melting layer around the radar site collapsing SE as the boundary layer cools and also the mid level warming 3-5kft up coming through CT and RI.
FWIW, looks a bit warmer in the 925-850mb range over C CT west toward POU comparing HRRR 1 hour forecasts and the height of the melting layer on KOKX dual pol. Definitely not coming in on the cold side of things.