CT Rain

Yeah the Cape is pretty close to a lock. For most of us you'll need one of the deeper solutions to verify and get the low to tuck in pretty close to the coast I think. That may take some work.

The NAM is quite a bit farther SE than the HRRR and Euro. I would imagine that would be close to NBD outside of the coast in SE NE.

Ha yeah for sure.

On a rad cooling night you could easily be at 36F at 2m but 32F on your windshield or blades of grass.

Got my Epic pass in the mail today. Should ensure no snow this season.

That's a separate issue (over warning for flooding... which we've done forever) than issuing a tropical storm warning for some 35 knot gusts or something.

Because flooding is by far a much bigger threat. Besides a mention of some 40 mph gusts it's a waste of time to be honest. During the event we are quite inverted north of the warm front so those gust products seem overdone. As the storm pulls away there's a brief window for some 30-35 knot gusts but it doesn't look particularly impressive to me especially with a life-threatening flood event happening before. The Flash Flood Watch is enough for today.

This has a lot of the hallmarks of a serious flood event. I'm pretty concerned for what unfolds tonight somewhere in CT/SE NY.

Get lost.

Those Euro gust products are trash

lol

It's all good. I'm pretty spoiled and travel a ton to cool places. I'll be back. I've always said that a hurricane is the only weather that will cut a trip short for me. Blizzards are a dime a dozen around here and tornadoes who knows until it's happening.

That's actually not true. All the stations had continuous coverage that day. One of the reasons why stations will do this for tropical systems and snowstorms is that people will watch in large numbers (our ratings will be much higher for storm coverage than for what the typical programming is) and most people only watch for small chunks of time - so if you're on for 10 hours straight you provide a service for someone who may be interested in checking in every now and then.

Hurricane hunter obs are not impressive.

The GFS would be massive hydro problems in CT and W Mass.

It is. I mean I would say anything that’s a top 5 outage in the last 50 years is historic and isaias was #3 on that list was a 50 mph TS.

Yeah I mean rain soaked soil, potential for 60 gusts and our infrastructure does not look great.

I’m somewhere between France and Newfoundland right now

I mean it doesn’t take much to knock out power here. Isaias was a top 3 outage for Eversource.

This seems like the biggest wildcard to me at this point. Track is relatively locked in but I can see a pretty wide range in impacts right now with uncertainty wrt strength.

No doubt about that. I was in town for about 10 days leading up to the 4th and it was absolutely mobbed. Hard to think of a better way for a virus to spread than packed bars, little ventilation, terrible weather, etc.

I do think the interesting thing with the new CDC guidance and Delta overall is how the public has really just moved on. I live in one of the most liberal towns in one of the most liberal states (not Cambridge, but close) and yesterday at the gym I saw zero people in masks out of maybe 60 or 70 people there. We're in that fuzzy space between containment/mitigation and people just making judgment calls based on their own risk tolerance. For example I was traveling quite a bit and got a rapid test a few hours before going to a wedding just to be sure... but I'm not changing my day to day behavior after being vaxxed and not living with anyone who's high risk.

Yeah - seems like we're probably farther into Delta than we think and this will run its course sooner rather than later.

Also wrt to the Ptown cluster... I was there for about 10 days leading up to July 4th and town was an absolute mob scene. It's always packed in the summer but this was unbelievable. With terrible weather and bars/clubs so packed you couldn't move (with virtually no ventilation, low ceilings, etc) it seems like a perfect environment for a few superspreader events. Even worse than a cruise ship. Not a huge surprise a number of vaccinated people were infected... but there were tens of thousands who weren't.

Is it that crazy? I know about 20 people who had covid in Ptown and they were either asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic. They never would have been tested had the news of the "provincetown cluster" been everywhere. Seems reasonable that as the spread is more significant in younger people who are mildly or asymptomatic there is going to be a big drop in testing and tons and tons of cases going unreported.