Jump to content

CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    26,098

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    NAM definitely has a nice severe threat on Sunday. Steep mid level lapse rates (~7c/km), MLCAPE over 2500 j/kg, and about 40 knots of deep layer shear. Could definitely see some big hailers and wind if that verifies. Favored areas probably include the coast with the front overhead and westerly flow.
  2. CT Rain
    At least it wasn't snow
  3. CT Rain
    Yup that's been the risk all along. The global models have been consistently south.
  4. CT Rain
    Raise SSTs a few degrees every summer and suddenly things become fun.
  5. CT Rain
    Seems to me like the environment is pretty favorable along the warm front all the way back into NJ/NYC and coming northeast from there through daybreak.
  6. CT Rain
    Just got my Epic pass. Let's do this!
  7. CT Rain
    Only 2600 eversource outages... pretty meh. Looks like a lot of 40-50 mph gusts.
  8. CT Rain
    Very meh. Not many reports at all given radar. Radar velocities were very impressive off ALY/BOX but a lot of that was aloft and didn't mix down. Given the strong LLJ not surprised to see strong winds picked up aloft but am surprised we didn't see much in terms of damage.
  9. CT Rain
    Especially the 18z/00z runs so far have really done a number on the lapse rates. Interestingly lots of 0-3km CAPE but really meager 500-700hpa lapse rates. Deep layer shear isn't awful... particularly pre-18z... with 30-40 knots. We'll see for sure... curious to see how the morning convection shakes out and if we can get a bit of discrete action ahead of the main show.
  10. CT Rain
    The soundings on the NAM and Euro remain extremely impressive tomorrow across SNE. HRRR a bit less so but we certainly could see a few spinners and maybe even a sig tor if things break right.
  11. CT Rain
    lol what a disaster that was
  12. CT Rain
    LCLs are extremely low on that sounding.
  13. CT Rain
    The NWS uses it to determine what gets a heat advisory or warning so it's not totally a media invention lol
  14. CT Rain
    Euro and NAM wind fields on Thursday are worth watching, Wiz.
  15. CT Rain
    Deranged.
  16. CT Rain
    Yeah the NAM is hideous.
  17. CT Rain
    Thankfully everything has been fairly progressive so far which has helped with the flood threat. We'll see how it shakes out later today.
  18. CT Rain
    The entire neighborhood may fall victim to a mudslide.
  19. CT Rain
    Not to mention soils are saturated, rivers and streams are running very high, etc.
  20. CT Rain
    The 3km NAM has been showing some very impressive bullseyes too - just all over the place with location. The 18z run had 13" of rain near Albany lol
  21. CT Rain
    Not gonna lie - this is a frightening look.
  22. CT Rain
    Could be a pretty significant flood event tomorrow for someone in SNE based on the 12z runs. Can't rule out a tornado either if some areas destabilize event given the strong low level shear.
  23. CT Rain
    Yup. Lapse rates are steep.
  24. CT Rain
    Albany is probably the best spot ~20z.
  25. CT Rain
    Waiting for Wiz to get excited for tomorrow. Nice looking CAPE and low level shear late tomorrow afternoon through evening for E NY and western New England. Definitely some tornado potential there.
×
×
  • Create New...