Yeah it does look like the pattern will support cold and a nice anticyclone to the north thanks to confluence.
Even if we do "cut" should be a pretty classic SWFE kind of event.
I had a mix in the forecast for Day 9 and Day 10 in the 10-day forecast. It was crazy how long it had been since I've even had something like that pop up on the graphics.
I see 0F in New Milford and 9F in Greenwich so 4F is reasonable there. There's definitely a gradient with the core of the cold over eastern New England and less the farther SW you go.