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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    What was your question?
  2. CT Rain
    I'm not expecting a whole lot here anyway
  3. CT Rain
    Aren't 10:1 clown maps virtually useless in a storm like this? Idk why they're getting so much play here.
  4. CT Rain
    Subsidence in Tolland?
  5. CT Rain
    Yeah at least the forecast is exciting and keeping me awake!
  6. CT Rain
    I didn't really. I think longitude helps some for W CT.
  7. CT Rain
    I will enjoy my 6 hours of cat paws that never accumulate!
  8. CT Rain
    Here's our forecast. Pretty tough call but this is the best I could manage for the time being lol
  9. CT Rain
    GFS looks pretty much identical 0z to 6z. That inverted trough really screws us south of the Pike for a while.
  10. CT Rain
    Idk. It’s a really bizarre evolution on the NAM. Not sure what to make of it.
  11. CT Rain
    The soundings and 2M temps off the NAM are definitely not what I’d expect for a low near ISP. What a pasting around here. I can’t recall an evolution like that IMBY.
  12. CT Rain
    6-10" when it's 34 or 35F in Mansfield as this model shows would be something. Again.... clown maps and clown ptype algorithms can lead you to dark places. The inverted trough trend today should be a big caution flag for CT/RI outside of the NW Hills.
  13. CT Rain
    actually that's during the meat of it. I do think there's some longitude assist in play here south of the Pike.
  14. CT Rain
    Yeah looks good up your way!
  15. CT Rain
    Eh?
  16. CT Rain
    It's funny that the clown map brigade is convinced 1-2 feet for most is a good bet.
  17. CT Rain
    Beware the clown maps.
  18. CT Rain
    Just saw the GFS. Jesus.
  19. CT Rain
    High res op run may be picking up on some cyclogenesis along the inverted trough a bit better than the coarser ensembles but it is nice to see things consolidate pretty quickly. The 12z Euro soundings were pretty warm here in the BL. Hopefully we can work on that a bit in later runs.
  20. CT Rain
    That's a nice look on the EPS overall. Still worried about some warming initially here a bit farther south but can't complain much.
  21. CT Rain
    Yeah I think the "dual low" thing isn't really worth tossing. It's just a reflection of surface pressure falls along the inverted trough prior to full phase/capture. So even if the low isn't as distinct in reality that E/SE flow ahead of the inverted trough will do some damage to the BL.
  22. CT Rain
    lol you're not wrong. I do think that even the "good" looking tracks are going to have issues here in the valley with a pretty torched BL. Going to be a needle threader. Feel better for W CT though as it looks like the congrats ALB scenario is less likely.
  23. CT Rain
    Well I'm not that certain. The Euro is still torched in the boundary layer and verbatim is a lot of rain out of the hills.
  24. CT Rain
    Starting to get more bullish here in CT. The tucked trend has slowed or even reversed. Not much cold air to work with but may be just enough given the very well timed bombing/occlusion to bring the heavy stuff here.
  25. CT Rain
    How we pray. Jeez.
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