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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Zzzzzzzz
  2. CT Rain
    May have to watch the mixing on the back side of the storm. With a decent pressure gradient if we're able to keep the sun we could see some fairly good northwesterly gusts even inland. Even the GFS has ~40 knots at the top of the mixed layer back here.
  3. CT Rain
    Who's going to put the nail in this thing's coffin and start a Lee thread?
  4. CT Rain
    That warm front means business for NYC/LI and maybe coastal SNE. Pretty classic sunrise tornado look.
  5. CT Rain
    Pretty favorable CAPE/shear setup around 00z as far east as I-91. If the NAM is right with the front timing Sunday could be fun for the coast Boston, Providence, New Haven, etc. Quite a bit of CAPE and deep layer shear. Could be some decent hail.
  6. CT Rain
    NAM definitely has a nice severe threat on Sunday. Steep mid level lapse rates (~7c/km), MLCAPE over 2500 j/kg, and about 40 knots of deep layer shear. Could definitely see some big hailers and wind if that verifies. Favored areas probably include the coast with the front overhead and westerly flow.
  7. CT Rain
    At least it wasn't snow
  8. CT Rain
    Yup that's been the risk all along. The global models have been consistently south.
  9. CT Rain
    Raise SSTs a few degrees every summer and suddenly things become fun.
  10. CT Rain
    Seems to me like the environment is pretty favorable along the warm front all the way back into NJ/NYC and coming northeast from there through daybreak.
  11. CT Rain
    Just got my Epic pass. Let's do this!
  12. CT Rain
    Only 2600 eversource outages... pretty meh. Looks like a lot of 40-50 mph gusts.
  13. CT Rain
    Very meh. Not many reports at all given radar. Radar velocities were very impressive off ALY/BOX but a lot of that was aloft and didn't mix down. Given the strong LLJ not surprised to see strong winds picked up aloft but am surprised we didn't see much in terms of damage.
  14. CT Rain
    Especially the 18z/00z runs so far have really done a number on the lapse rates. Interestingly lots of 0-3km CAPE but really meager 500-700hpa lapse rates. Deep layer shear isn't awful... particularly pre-18z... with 30-40 knots. We'll see for sure... curious to see how the morning convection shakes out and if we can get a bit of discrete action ahead of the main show.
  15. CT Rain
    The soundings on the NAM and Euro remain extremely impressive tomorrow across SNE. HRRR a bit less so but we certainly could see a few spinners and maybe even a sig tor if things break right.
  16. CT Rain
    lol what a disaster that was
  17. CT Rain
    LCLs are extremely low on that sounding.
  18. CT Rain
    The NWS uses it to determine what gets a heat advisory or warning so it's not totally a media invention lol
  19. CT Rain
    Euro and NAM wind fields on Thursday are worth watching, Wiz.
  20. CT Rain
    Deranged.
  21. CT Rain
    Yeah the NAM is hideous.
  22. CT Rain
    Thankfully everything has been fairly progressive so far which has helped with the flood threat. We'll see how it shakes out later today.
  23. CT Rain
    The entire neighborhood may fall victim to a mudslide.
  24. CT Rain
    Not to mention soils are saturated, rivers and streams are running very high, etc.
  25. CT Rain
    The 3km NAM has been showing some very impressive bullseyes too - just all over the place with location. The 18z run had 13" of rain near Albany lol
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