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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 0347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Areas near/east of the Blue Ridge of North Carolina into Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 62... Valid 142050Z - 142215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for supercells potentially capable of producing tornadoes continues, and could increase at least a bit further through 6-7 PM EDT. Trends will also continue to be monitored for northward development toward the northern Virginia vicinity, which may require an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...A zone of enhanced near/surface warm advection and convergence to the lee of the Blue Ridge mountains may remain a focus for discrete thunderstorm development across North Carolina into Virginia through the 22-23Z time frame. Aided by peak boundary layer instability associated with daytime heating (including CAPE up to 1000 J/kg), a few supercells are possible, in the presence of strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear. The Rapid refresh suggests that southwesterly 850 mb flow may continue to strengthen in excess of 50 kt, contributing to further enlargement of low-level hodographs and perhaps increasing tornadic potential. ..Kerr.. 04/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
  2. yoda
    MD out... watch possible soon
  3. yoda
    Tornado Watch within the hour for W PA - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0344.html
  4. yoda
    Wonder if that 10% TOR will be expanded at all on the 2000 SPC OTLK
  5. yoda
    Tornado Watch till 8pm for SW VA... includes the RNK counties that just about border the LWX CWA... Lynchburg is in the watch... just SW of CHO
  6. yoda
    This sounding is just WSW of DC in Fairfax County at 06z MON on the 00z NAM NEST:
  7. yoda
    LWX had a great write up in their evening AFD that I posted in the catchall severe thread... dunno what Wakefield is saying though
  8. yoda
  9. yoda
    @high risk @Kmlwx @C.A.P.E. @Eskimo Joe Excellently written updated evening AFD (posted at 951 PM) about the threat for late tomorrow into tomorrow night by the LWX mets... excellent points both for and against
  10. yoda
    But it says "some thunderstorms"... take out the damaging wind gusts part and it makes it seem like they are saying some thunderstorms will be capable of producing a tornado. I like that it says that spotter activation is likely too
  11. yoda
    Interesting wording in the HWO about late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Usually it says something like an isolated tornado is possible... but instead says this:
  12. yoda
    Yeah its Margusity... but still, that's not a good map from the 18z HRRR... which I mentioned in a post above https://mobile.twitter.com/HenryMargusity/status/1117203973465870336
  13. yoda
    So instead of posting something, @Eskimo Joe would rather just lol every post... impressive Surprised he didnt lol @Kmlwx post above
  14. yoda
    18z HRRR at LR, so take it FWIW, but that radar image doesnt look good around 03z to 04z... string of sups
  15. yoda
    12z NAM NEST also has PDS TOR soundings showing up across LWX CWA from 00z to 08z MON
  16. yoda
    12z NAM in Augusta/Rockingham counties at 03z MON
  17. yoda
    12z NAM in SW St. Mary's County at 09z MON
  18. yoda
    @Kmlwx @high risk SPC 12z HREF ensemble mean paints fixed layer STP of 4 to 7 across the region from around 03z to 08z MON Also shows 40% or greater ensemble probability of fixed layer STP >3 from 03z to 08z MON
  19. yoda
    Falling asleep - yes I know its 4am - and a loud rumble of thunder woke me back up
  20. yoda
    New Day 2 has SLGT almost to the i95 corridor and west for late Sunday into Sunday night
  21. yoda
    Charles County MD at 08z MON aka La Plata tornado zone from the 00z NAM NEST
  22. yoda
    Def agree and good post. I edited my post above and posted a sounding at 03z MON a little bit NW of CHO... prob overdone but PDS TOR lol
  23. yoda
    Just NW of CHO... Rockingham/Greene/Albermarle county area... first of the year lol
  24. yoda
    @high risk What do you think of the 00z NAM NEST tonight? STP looks to be pretty high across the region from 02z to 08z MON... looking at it on weather.cod.edu
  25. yoda
    TOG near Fuquay-Varina... was decent for a moment looking at CC ETA: Solak posted image above
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