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yoda

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Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    This sounding is just WSW of DC in Fairfax County at 06z MON on the 00z NAM NEST:
  2. yoda
    LWX had a great write up in their evening AFD that I posted in the catchall severe thread... dunno what Wakefield is saying though
  3. yoda
  4. yoda
    @high risk @Kmlwx @C.A.P.E. @Eskimo Joe Excellently written updated evening AFD (posted at 951 PM) about the threat for late tomorrow into tomorrow night by the LWX mets... excellent points both for and against
  5. yoda
    But it says "some thunderstorms"... take out the damaging wind gusts part and it makes it seem like they are saying some thunderstorms will be capable of producing a tornado. I like that it says that spotter activation is likely too
  6. yoda
    Interesting wording in the HWO about late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Usually it says something like an isolated tornado is possible... but instead says this:
  7. yoda
    Yeah its Margusity... but still, that's not a good map from the 18z HRRR... which I mentioned in a post above https://mobile.twitter.com/HenryMargusity/status/1117203973465870336
  8. yoda
    So instead of posting something, @Eskimo Joe would rather just lol every post... impressive Surprised he didnt lol @Kmlwx post above
  9. yoda
    18z HRRR at LR, so take it FWIW, but that radar image doesnt look good around 03z to 04z... string of sups
  10. yoda
    12z NAM NEST also has PDS TOR soundings showing up across LWX CWA from 00z to 08z MON
  11. yoda
    12z NAM in Augusta/Rockingham counties at 03z MON
  12. yoda
    12z NAM in SW St. Mary's County at 09z MON
  13. yoda
    @Kmlwx @high risk SPC 12z HREF ensemble mean paints fixed layer STP of 4 to 7 across the region from around 03z to 08z MON Also shows 40% or greater ensemble probability of fixed layer STP >3 from 03z to 08z MON
  14. yoda
    Falling asleep - yes I know its 4am - and a loud rumble of thunder woke me back up
  15. yoda
    New Day 2 has SLGT almost to the i95 corridor and west for late Sunday into Sunday night
  16. yoda
    Charles County MD at 08z MON aka La Plata tornado zone from the 00z NAM NEST
  17. yoda
    Def agree and good post. I edited my post above and posted a sounding at 03z MON a little bit NW of CHO... prob overdone but PDS TOR lol
  18. yoda
    Just NW of CHO... Rockingham/Greene/Albermarle county area... first of the year lol
  19. yoda
    @high risk What do you think of the 00z NAM NEST tonight? STP looks to be pretty high across the region from 02z to 08z MON... looking at it on weather.cod.edu
  20. yoda
    TOG near Fuquay-Varina... was decent for a moment looking at CC ETA: Solak posted image above
  21. yoda
    Tree damage reported in Cumberland with the severe thunderstorm in W MD
  22. yoda
    STW up in W MD and extreme N WV... winds to 60mph
  23. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX seems to hint at that:
  24. yoda
    HWO does mention risk... even states an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out due to hodograph 12z NAM seems to also have two distinct "threat" periods... one around 00z and one around 09z looking at the soundings
  25. yoda
    SPC day 1 OTLK has marginal risk for good amount of the LWX CWA... 5% hail and 5% wind
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