yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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3km NAM had more of a line sweeping in from the west... HRRR had more of a "discrete storm" picture IMO
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Rotation marker on the Appomattox storm on radarscope
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So looks like HRRR wins over 3km NAM
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@wasnow215 Tornado watch coming for you soon per SPC MCD just issued
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Def looks like there is some rotation down by Appomattox? Or am I wrong?
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I'd start watching the storms in SW VA... looks like things are moving more NEward now... some storms are firing ETA: and just as I post that... STW pops up just east of LYH... that's the one to watch IMO as it heads NE
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Is there a storm out by Middleburg? Radarscope had a rotation marker out there and what looks to be a few lightning strike markers too
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Trees and wires blown down in Greenbrier County in WV per LWX SWS
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920pm LWX AFD update:
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I was guessing two hours from where the line was... it could be more. The line was beginning to move more NE than E
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I'm guessing that will be the line we will be waiting for in the next two hours or so
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The line in WV moving east and northeast is currently being warned for winds to 70mph
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It might in a lil while when the LLJ strengthens some more across the region and when the CF gets closer
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STW NE Loudoun and SW Frederick till 7pm... poss tor wording as well
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FDK right in/near the path
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STW for Carroll and SE Frederick counties in MD
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Yeah just read the warning... haven't seen that before from LWX
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Already been out twice down there
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50/20 tor probs... decent. Also from watch discussion for our area through tonight:
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Tornado Watch in effect till 3am
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Mesoscale Discussion 0347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Areas near/east of the Blue Ridge of North Carolina into Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 62... Valid 142050Z - 142215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for supercells potentially capable of producing tornadoes continues, and could increase at least a bit further through 6-7 PM EDT. Trends will also continue to be monitored for northward development toward the northern Virginia vicinity, which may require an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...A zone of enhanced near/surface warm advection and convergence to the lee of the Blue Ridge mountains may remain a focus for discrete thunderstorm development across North Carolina into Virginia through the 22-23Z time frame. Aided by peak boundary layer instability associated with daytime heating (including CAPE up to 1000 J/kg), a few supercells are possible, in the presence of strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear. The Rapid refresh suggests that southwesterly 850 mb flow may continue to strengthen in excess of 50 kt, contributing to further enlargement of low-level hodographs and perhaps increasing tornadic potential. ..Kerr.. 04/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
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MD out... watch possible soon
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Tornado Watch within the hour for W PA - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0344.html
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Wonder if that 10% TOR will be expanded at all on the 2000 SPC OTLK
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Tornado Watch till 8pm for SW VA... includes the RNK counties that just about border the LWX CWA... Lynchburg is in the watch... just SW of CHO
