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yoda

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Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    Still 5 tor, 15 hail, 15 wind at 1630 OTLK 30 wind and ENH risk remains where it is... maybe a super slight south shift
  2. yoda
    https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_20080604 https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_20080604_lsr http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/06/june_4_2008_severe_weather_out_1.html
  3. yoda
    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1028 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will remain offshore today and a southerly flow will continue to usher in warmer and more humid conditions. Max temps will top off in the mid to upper 80s across most locations with a few locations possibly approaching 90 degrees. The increased heat and humidity will lead to an unstable atmosphere. Latest modified KIAD sounding shows around 1-2KJ/KG of MLCAPE developing this afternoon, with some locations possibility reaching over 2KJ/KG. A convective system is also tracking through the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania this morning. This system will track through our area this afternoon into this evening. Latest thinking is that this system will weaken as it approaches late this morning, but re-development is possible across our area this afternoon into early this evening due to the increasing instability. Strong deep layer shear combined with the instability suggests that severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening. Deep layer shear will most likely be around 40-50 knots. Current thinking is that the best chance for strong to severe storms will be near and east of a pressure trough that should set up near the Blue Ridge and Catcoctin Mountains this afternoon. However, given the strong shear profiles and relatively favorable mid-level lapse rates, there is a threat for severe storms across the entire area. Do think that overall coverage of the severe storms will be isolated to scattered since the lifting mechanism is relatively weak. Locally damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out due to the strong shear profiles. In preparation for today`s potential severe threat, ensure you and your family have multiple ways to receive warnings and have a plan and place to take shelter if needed. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible later this evening ahead of the cold front. Instability will be more limited, but the shear profiles will be quite strong. Therefore, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out with this activity, especially across northern Maryland/northern VA/eastern WV. Activity will diminish overnight as instability continues to decrease and the cold front drops farther south.
  4. yoda
    I forget where @mappy gets those zoomed in outlook SPC maps
  5. yoda
    ENH is just north of DC... includes just about all of MD (except S MD) and S PA
  6. yoda
    That's a large 5 percent tornado area from SPC on the new Day 1 OTLK
  7. yoda
    00z HRRR and 02z HRRR bring a line through of cells around 20z
  8. yoda
    Another view of the sounding at DCA at 03z FRI per pivotalweather
  9. yoda
    00z NAM NEST decides to drive through some what would appear to be supercells around 20z to 21z... then brings a pretty decent line south from PA as a finale around 03z but its fragmenting around DC at that time
  10. yoda
    Oh hai... sounding around DCA at 03z FRI per the 00z NAM
  11. yoda
    00z NAM sim radar brings some nastiness for the evening commute from BWI to DCA to near EZF at 21z
  12. yoda
    Ok... those are some disturbing soundings the 00z NAM is tossing out at 00z and 03z FRI at KIAD... 03z FRI at KBWI and KDCA... Yes, just a sounding, but you don't see those types of soundings around here very often Yes, doesn't guarantee we see severe. But still... wow @Kmlwx @high risk
  13. yoda
    Tornado Warning in NE MO for Marion and Shelby counties
  14. yoda
    18z NAM soundings at 21z THUR and 00z FRI are pretty impressive across the region
  15. yoda
    I think it will continue to look that way on sim radar until the MCS that LWX mentioned in the afternoon AFD develops
  16. yoda
    LWX's afternoon AFD re tomorrow from 2:30PM
  17. yoda
    SPC Disco from the 1730 OTLK
  18. yoda
    1730 SPC OTLK moves the SLGT and ENH risk south some compared to earlier Day 2
  19. yoda
    I'm liking Thursday based off the NAM/NAM NEST/SREFs... I see the slight risk moving south some on the new Day 2 and an ENH in PA.
  20. yoda
    00z NAM soundings at 21z THUR and 00z FRI look tasty
  21. yoda
    Lol there could be a high risk here and @Eskimo Joe would find a way to meh it
  22. yoda
    LWX afternoon AFD on Thursday afternoon threat:
  23. yoda
    I wonder if that action on sim reflectivity in SW PA/W MD would reach us in the few hours after the 12z NAM NEST run ends
  24. yoda
    12z NAM soundings look good as well IMO, esp between 21z THUR and 03z FRI
  25. yoda
    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 550 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda has developed a well-defined center with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. A special advisory will be issued on Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi
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