yoda
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 220 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... The northwestern City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Northern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 220 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Brambleton to near South Riding, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Centreville, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Reston, Leesburg, Olney, South Riding, Herndon, Fairfax, Vienna, Damascus, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Pimmit Hills, Poolesville and Mclean.
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 217 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 VAC047-113-137-177-261830- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-190426T1830Z/ Madison VA-Orange VA-Culpeper VA-Spotsylvania VA- 217 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...EASTERN ORANGE...SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER AND CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES... At 217 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Culpeper to 9 miles north of Louisa, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Law enforcement. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Culpeper, Spotsylvania, Mine Run, Elkwood, Stevensburg, Brandy Station, Verdiersville, Everona, Locust Grove, Flat Run, Thornhill, Nasons, Winston, Mitchells, Glenora, Dunavant, Lake Of The Woods, Unionville, Cookstown and Raccoon Ford.
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Are those mini hooks entering Fairfax or is the radar playing tricks? ETA: Down by Lake Ridge
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So this would be the ENH on the MA scale you made, yes?
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Central and Southeast Pennsylvania Northeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify along a cold front this afternoon and spread across the watch area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
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Tornado Watch till 9pm 40/20 tor probs with the watch
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looks like some rotation down in Albemarle county
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STW for CHO and Albemarle county
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Surprised no watchbox yet... has to be coming shortly
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Probably will be a tornado watch IMO (thinking more like 80/20)... should be partly to mostly cloudy with sunshine for at least another hour looking a sat
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Now this should work lol
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For some reason kamala won't let me post (quote it either) the updated 1630z SPC disco so I have to wait for it to come up on the SPC homepage
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Sat suggests a few hours of sunshine looks like through early this afternoon
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I like this part that I bolded... wonder if it will be 30 wind or 10 tor... probably 30 wind for ENH
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Sat loop in motion for today that i posted at the bottom of the last page can be gotten from here -- http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp
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seeing some breaks in the clouds here with some filtered sunshine... looks like maybe an hour or 2 of sun? Everything is moving in a NE direction
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Updated Morning AFD from LWX for this afternoon's severe risk:
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Darrow/Gleason were the writers of the 0600 Day 1 OTLK @C.A.P.E. @high risk @Kmlwx
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SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK has 5% hail, 15% wind, and 5% tornado for DC and Baltimore metro regions as well as all of the Eastern Shore and Delaware into SE PA and S NJ
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NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINAS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind and isolated tornadoes are expected from North Carolina into the Middle Atlantic Friday. Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible over northern Utah, southeast Idaho, southwest Wyoming and northwest Colorado. Other storms may produce a few strong wind gusts over a portion of the Florida Peninsula. ...Carolinas to the Middle Atlantic region... Southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it becomes absorbed within the base of an amplifying northern-stream trough and move off the Atlantic Seaboard early Friday. The northern-stream trough will continue through the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic region during the day accompanied by a cold front. Modest low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F will advect through the warm sector along a 50 kt low-level jet. This in conjunction with some cloud breaks will destabilize the boundary layer with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg possible. Some thunderstorms may be ongoing along the NC coast early Friday in association with the leading shortwave trough. Farther upstream, storms are expected to intensify along and ahead of the cold front as the boundary layer destabilizes from VA into NC and possibly as far south as SC. Strengthening mid-upper wind profiles accompanying the northern-stream shortwave trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of embedded organized structures with storms developing within the evolving squall line and some supercells with any storms developing ahead of the line. Damaging wind appears to be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. Severe threat should end by early evening as the cold front moves offshore. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 04/25/2019
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SLGT risk issued for DC metro... MRGL pushed back west to around i81 corridor on updated Day 2... damaging winds main threat but also chance for a few tornadoes
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Sounds good... what did you think of the Euro and does the HRDPS have any value for severe weather? @losetoa6 mentioned both in the main disco thread ETA: Good call on the MRGL risk
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Lol The Reston EF0 tornado in western Fairfax County was about 25 miles NW of me. I consider that close by... but to each his own I guess
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Federalsburg is 22 miles away from Greensboro... or 25 minutes or so
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https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_lwx/status/1119408944525578240
