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yoda

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Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    I'm guessing that will be the line we will be waiting for in the next two hours or so
  2. yoda
    The line in WV moving east and northeast is currently being warned for winds to 70mph
  3. yoda
    It might in a lil while when the LLJ strengthens some more across the region and when the CF gets closer
  4. yoda
    STW NE Loudoun and SW Frederick till 7pm... poss tor wording as well
  5. yoda
    FDK right in/near the path
  6. yoda
    STW for Carroll and SE Frederick counties in MD
  7. yoda
    Yeah just read the warning... haven't seen that before from LWX
  8. yoda
    Already been out twice down there
  9. yoda
    50/20 tor probs... decent. Also from watch discussion for our area through tonight:
  10. yoda
    Tornado Watch in effect till 3am
  11. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 0347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Areas near/east of the Blue Ridge of North Carolina into Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 62... Valid 142050Z - 142215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for supercells potentially capable of producing tornadoes continues, and could increase at least a bit further through 6-7 PM EDT. Trends will also continue to be monitored for northward development toward the northern Virginia vicinity, which may require an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...A zone of enhanced near/surface warm advection and convergence to the lee of the Blue Ridge mountains may remain a focus for discrete thunderstorm development across North Carolina into Virginia through the 22-23Z time frame. Aided by peak boundary layer instability associated with daytime heating (including CAPE up to 1000 J/kg), a few supercells are possible, in the presence of strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear. The Rapid refresh suggests that southwesterly 850 mb flow may continue to strengthen in excess of 50 kt, contributing to further enlargement of low-level hodographs and perhaps increasing tornadic potential. ..Kerr.. 04/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
  12. yoda
    MD out... watch possible soon
  13. yoda
    Tornado Watch within the hour for W PA - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0344.html
  14. yoda
    Wonder if that 10% TOR will be expanded at all on the 2000 SPC OTLK
  15. yoda
    Tornado Watch till 8pm for SW VA... includes the RNK counties that just about border the LWX CWA... Lynchburg is in the watch... just SW of CHO
  16. yoda
    This sounding is just WSW of DC in Fairfax County at 06z MON on the 00z NAM NEST:
  17. yoda
    LWX had a great write up in their evening AFD that I posted in the catchall severe thread... dunno what Wakefield is saying though
  18. yoda
  19. yoda
    @high risk @Kmlwx @C.A.P.E. @Eskimo Joe Excellently written updated evening AFD (posted at 951 PM) about the threat for late tomorrow into tomorrow night by the LWX mets... excellent points both for and against
  20. yoda
    But it says "some thunderstorms"... take out the damaging wind gusts part and it makes it seem like they are saying some thunderstorms will be capable of producing a tornado. I like that it says that spotter activation is likely too
  21. yoda
    Interesting wording in the HWO about late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Usually it says something like an isolated tornado is possible... but instead says this:
  22. yoda
    Yeah its Margusity... but still, that's not a good map from the 18z HRRR... which I mentioned in a post above https://mobile.twitter.com/HenryMargusity/status/1117203973465870336
  23. yoda
    So instead of posting something, @Eskimo Joe would rather just lol every post... impressive Surprised he didnt lol @Kmlwx post above
  24. yoda
    18z HRRR at LR, so take it FWIW, but that radar image doesnt look good around 03z to 04z... string of sups
  25. yoda
    12z NAM NEST also has PDS TOR soundings showing up across LWX CWA from 00z to 08z MON
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