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yoda

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  1. yoda
    1630z OTLK from SPC disco for our area While storms have weakened, showers/cloud cover remain prevalent near/east of the Appalachians at midday across the Mid-Atlantic region. This will tend to limit/delay destabilization in many areas (especially with north-northeastward extent). That said, air mass recovery/advection is expected from the west, with ample upstream clearing per visible satellite imagery across the Cumberland Plateau into parts of the Allegheny Plateau. Pending the timing/location of destabilization, some terrain/lee trough-related development may diurnally occur, although the most prevalent/more certain scenario may be for potentially severe storms to spread into the region this evening. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard regionally, although a tornado could occur, attributable to MCV-enhanced flow and/or with any storms interacting with the effective warm front across the Mid-Atlantic region.
  2. yoda
    Any idea why 1630z OTLK from SPC is late? I'm checking kamala and SPC... I don't see it
  3. yoda
    I thought KH3 was okay tbh
  4. yoda
    Finally... https://comicbook.com/gaming/news/kingdom-hearts-4-release-window-and-first-new-world-confirmed-in-new-trailer/
  5. yoda
    I am just on Facebook mostly now. I have an account on X, but barely use it
  6. yoda
    Understood, but seems LWX disagrees in their morning AFD? Or am I misreading? In addition to any heavy rain threat is the potential for bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. Increased flow down into the low levels would be favorable for organized line segments capable of mixing down damaging wind gusts in any organizing cold pools. The saturated profiles could result in water loading downdrafts, though the lack of mid-level dry air may keep DCAPE low putting a ceiling on just how high damaging wind gusts can get (most likely in the 50-65 mph range). The increased low- level flow and SRH coupled with moist profiles could lend to the threat of a few tornadoes as well. Although the prospect of early morning clouds and precip may at first glance seem to preclude a higher potential for heating and severe weather later in the day, the high low-level moisture content coupled with steady height falls aloft means that heating will not need to be as robust to result in sufficient CAPE for strong to severe convection, especially given the shear that will be present. Some severe weather or flood threat may persist into the night given the above listed factors.
  7. yoda
    LWX seems to be hitting the threat a bit harder in this afternoon AFD DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms and some instances of flash flooding are possible on Sunday. Some residual convective activity may be ongoing on Sunday morning. This remains to be seen and will be guided by the degree of overnight instability and boundary placement. How the atmosphere recovers through the day should ultimately dictate the degree of severe thunderstorm threat during the core diurnal heating hours. The ingredients are certainly present for a more impactful event if meteorological parameters all come together. Looking a bit more closely at this event, a broad mid/upper ridge persist across the Four Corners eastward to the southwestern Atlantic. Amplified flow north of this expansive anticyclone will continue to be a conduit to active convection, many in the form of mesoscale convective systems (MCS). As mentioned above, a remnant MCS might still be ongoing early Sunday across the region. While above average heights persist, expect some non-zero height falls to cross the area in response to an approaching shortwave. Within this northwesterly flow aloft, vertical shear is ample for the time of year, generally around 30 to 35 knots. Depending on model choice, mixed-layer CAPE values approach 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg. The combination of these two will easily support a risk of severe weather. While damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat, other severe types loom if storms can remain discrete in nature. Additionally, a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall continues along much of the Alleghenies eastward along/north of I-66/U.S. 50. Precipitable water values rise markedly, possibly into the 2 to 2.25 inch range. While a single thunderstorm will be capable of torrential downpours, the bigger threat would be for repeat and/or training convection. The latter potential exists which supports the flash flood risk. Although drought continues over much of the region, many areas have seen a one category improvement over the past week. Convection will likely be ongoing into Sunday night with the cold front not passing through until early Monday.
  8. yoda
    Oh ok 499 NWUS51 KLWX 142303 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 703 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0541 PM Hail 2 E Charlottesville 38.04N 78.44W 08/14/2026 M2.50 inch Albemarle VA Local Official Also reports of hail damage to vehicles at the same location. && Event Number LWX2608205
  9. yoda
    BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lala Advisory Number 9 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 149.5W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Oahu and Kauai Counties. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Oahu * Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
  10. yoda
    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS
  11. yoda
    91mph wind gust reported by spotter 2 E Mokena IL 96mph wind gust reported by private weather station 2 NNW Shorewood IL
  12. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 INC089-127-111645- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0075.000000T0000Z-260811T1645Z/ Porter IN-Lake IN- 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR PORTER AND EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES... At 1107 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was racing toward Porter County at over 75 mph. HAZARD...Tornadoes and wind gusts in excess of 100 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These dangerous storms will be near... Valparaiso around 1115 AM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4122 8697 4127 8706 4129 8712 4127 8719 4124 8722 4162 8723 4163 8716 4165 8715 4165 8710 4171 8693 4124 8693 TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 275DEG 59KT 4145 8727 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
  13. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 INC089-127-111645- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0075.000000T0000Z-260811T1645Z/ Porter IN-Lake IN- 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR PORTER AND EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES... At 1107 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was racing toward Porter County at over 75 mph. HAZARD...Tornadoes and wind gusts in excess of 100 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These dangerous storms will be near... Valparaiso around 1115 AM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4122 8697 4127 8706 4129 8712 4127 8719 4124 8722 4162 8723 4163 8716 4165 8715 4165 8710 4171 8693 4124 8693 TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 275DEG 59KT 4145 8727 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
  14. yoda
    Oh ok Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 INC089-127-111645- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0075.000000T0000Z-260811T1645Z/ Porter IN-Lake IN- 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR PORTER AND EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES... At 1107 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was racing toward Porter County at over 75 mph. HAZARD...Tornadoes and wind gusts in excess of 100 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These dangerous storms will be near... Valparaiso around 1115 AM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4122 8697 4127 8706 4129 8712 4127 8719 4124 8722 4162 8723 4163 8716 4165 8715 4165 8710 4171 8693 4124 8693 TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 275DEG 59KT 4145 8727 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
  15. yoda
    Warned for gusts to 100 mph now
  16. yoda
    Tosses out 3 straight days of all time record highs
  17. yoda
    Um, can we not have what the 00z Euro tossed out in the super extended range (days 10-15)? Definitely do not want. Yes it will change at 12z... but no, do not want
  18. yoda
    I'm more watching the N IL complex
  19. yoda
    Some bright sun and blue skies here and off to the west. I think as long as we can get a good 4 to 6 hours of good heating it will be up to the boundaries and chance as you have stated
  20. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 555 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread southeastward across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. Hot and humid conditions will combine with favorable winds aloft for a risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Martinsburg WV to 40 miles east northeast of Baltimore MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
  21. yoda
    Watch up till 9pm for entire LWX CWA except St. Mary's
  22. yoda
    Or now... watch coming soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1896.png Mesoscale Discussion 1896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Areas affected...the Maryland and West Virginia Panhandles into the Delmarva Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101659Z - 101900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds is expected to increase this afternoon, likely requiring a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s has contributed to a moderately unstable air mass as of early afternoon with steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Upstream convection over southwest PA is gradually developing a tighter leading-edge reflectivity gradient and more robust trailing stratiform region, suggestive of an organizing cold pool. Current thinking is that the evolving convective system will further intensify as it continues east-southeast and encounters an increasingly unstable environment across the discussion area. The current KPBZ VWP is sampling strengthening west-northwest flow above 2 km AGL, which will likely aid in further cold pool organization. These factors will lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind gusts across the area this afternoon, likely requiring the issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39117919 39457922 39687831 39607644 39657577 39167542 38627575 38367675 38547793 38717879 38877919 39117919 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  23. yoda
    I'm guessing a MCD for us by 230pm
  24. yoda
    And 2% tor
  25. yoda
    So are the storms currently in Ohio the ones we should be watching for this afternoon?
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