yoda

Yes

And the regular 18z NAM reading above posta looks like 6 to 7 inches?

On the road... but what was QPF for DCA on both 12km and 3km 18z NAM runs for WAA? Looks like 18z NAM was 0.6" QPF?

FWIW from AKQ for part 1... they went WSWarning for the counties bordering the LWX CWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 VAZ048-061-062-064-069-509>511-302200- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0600Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland 434 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

DCA just missed out on the epic CCB on 06z RGEM... just off to the NE

LWX morning disco on part 1

Meanwhile... we hope... 06z NBM

00z NAM still very juicy and nice with WAA... but big swing and miss after with CCB -- too far north for just about everyone 4-8" and that's it

06z 3km NAM juiced up compared to its 00z run by a good amount for the WAA part... up to 0.45" to 0.50" QPF by hour 45 when DCA mixes... 3-6" of snow... 4-8 on Kuchera

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 DCZ001-MDZ003>005-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ028-030-031-040- 050>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Frederick VA-Warren- Clarke-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Eastern Mineral- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 MDZ006-008-011-507-508-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T1100Z-210201T1100Z/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern Baltimore, Cecil, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 MDZ001-VAZ025>027-029-036>039-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501>503-505- 506-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0300Z-210201T0300Z/ Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle- Greene-Madison-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi

I will take you to Jabba now... er.. show you the EPS members now

@jayyy @psuhoffman There are around 11 or 12 monster hits in the EPS tonight FYI ETA: I consider "monster" to be around 16 inches or more

9 inches at DCA on the 00z EPS mean lol

There is a Day 9 event on the Euro tonight FWIW

Well if we go that route, FWIW, the GEPS mean was 0.3 to 0.5" wetter on 00z than 18z

Guess we'll see what happens on the 00z EPS... though I think we are just about too close in now for it

Seems you and @psuhoffman are on agreement on that... which is good lol

Yes... I mean as I have said before I would love 12".... but I just want to see that WSWarning issued... 4" is my benchmark

Well PSU got harping on suppress... and this evening they have almost all besides UKIE went north

994mb SLP just east of Ocean City, MD at 72

Looks like a lil better ridging out west at 00z 36 compared to 12z 48 to me... yes?