yoda

it was a gif/meme

Uh no, the GFS is the worst scoring model MIllvilleWx also posted above that the WPC was discounting the GFS/GEFS and going with a CMC/UKIE/EURO blend this morning

Wow... that's bold of LWX to put that wording in the ZFP's already Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 338 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 DCZ001-VAZ054-281200- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 339 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .TODAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 20. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. .SUNDAY...Rain and snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow and rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .MONDAY...Snow likely. Snow may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 70 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Or we just take the EPS...

FWIW, on the 06z NAM, snowing at DCA at 75 hours (09z SUN) h5 map at 84... yes at end of the run and range stuff

If it passes that far south and moves eastward... we all do well... @MillvilleWx mentioned on the last page where our "Goldilocks" zone was for h7 pass

6 to 8 as a mean is still pretty nice along the i95 corridor

My bar is 4". That simple. We get 6" while NYC gets 20"? Well that sucks, but I just want WSW criteria snow. Any more is gravy and sauce

I believe his mention of where the h7 low passes is causing that. If we can get that to move south a tad, the higher totals will come back south... is that right @MillvilleWx? Or do i have that wrong?

Thanks for your great and reasonable posts. I am gathering we want the h7 low to be like 50-75 miles S of us for perfection?

6-12 is a nailbiter? Okay then

Looks like a decent h5 pass at 126 to me FWIW

h5 low going by at 120

Brings a 998mb SLP over the Delmarva

96 -- 1005mb SLP E IN CAD strongly evident... looks like transfer is starting or ongoing per isobars bending

Everything looks shifted a tad ESE at h5 comparing 00z 72 to 12z 84 IMO

998mb on KS/MO border at 72

Fauquier County Public Schools are closed

The euro is all alone on an island man. And its close to its wheelhouse although the transfer to NC is still 120 hours out per q2z run. Um CMC was pretty close to the Euro

00z UKIE at 96 and 120

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Make sure to change it to the current run though of 00z 1-28

Lol CMC is 8 to 14 inches and Ji isn't happy with it