yoda

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach the Tennessee and Ohio Valley into Sunday morning. This low will track into the Mid Atlantic region on Sunday, transferring its energy off the coast of the Carolinas and Virginia Tidewater region Sunday night into Monday. The low will strengthen off the Delmarva Peninsula Monday afternoon and Monday night, tracking northeastward on Tuesday. High pressure will then return for the middle portion of next week before low pressure and its associated cold front may impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY/... Fcst through 00Z Mon remains on track and with high confidence that all areas except Calvert and St. Mary`s will get a good plowable snow of around 6 inches or more. Fcst confidence after that time decreases due to mid-level dry slot moving in, uncertainty in sfc temperatures, and amount of QPF. Model guidance do show ENE convergent flow into strengthening low pressure off the coast with potentially as much as 0.15 inches liquid equivalent which would likely be all wintry. I think we could see some good ice accretion more than what models are suggesting especially for areas west of I-95 where temperatures will likely stay in the upper 20s. Areas south of the Capital Beltway will likely rise above freezing to keep precip as liquid Sun night into Mon morning.

Ian!!!

Where are you based for this storm?

Now that's a lotta damage! The RGEM/HRDRPS runs that is

30 degrees here... nice to see temps around freezing now instead of having to wait and be like 44 degrees lol

Well its certainly nice when you do pop in Hope all the big things go well for you and things continue to go well

Go on lol... post those images

Still snowing at 72 at DCA including BWI getting the heavier snows still going at 75 lol

Yes

And the regular 18z NAM reading above posta looks like 6 to 7 inches?

On the road... but what was QPF for DCA on both 12km and 3km 18z NAM runs for WAA? Looks like 18z NAM was 0.6" QPF?

FWIW from AKQ for part 1... they went WSWarning for the counties bordering the LWX CWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 VAZ048-061-062-064-069-509>511-302200- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0600Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland 434 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

DCA just missed out on the epic CCB on 06z RGEM... just off to the NE

LWX morning disco on part 1

Meanwhile... we hope... 06z NBM

00z NAM still very juicy and nice with WAA... but big swing and miss after with CCB -- too far north for just about everyone 4-8" and that's it

06z 3km NAM juiced up compared to its 00z run by a good amount for the WAA part... up to 0.45" to 0.50" QPF by hour 45 when DCA mixes... 3-6" of snow... 4-8 on Kuchera

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 DCZ001-MDZ003>005-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ028-030-031-040- 050>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Frederick VA-Warren- Clarke-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Eastern Mineral- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 MDZ006-008-011-507-508-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T1100Z-210201T1100Z/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern Baltimore, Cecil, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 MDZ001-VAZ025>027-029-036>039-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501>503-505- 506-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0300Z-210201T0300Z/ Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle- Greene-Madison-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi

I will take you to Jabba now... er.. show you the EPS members now