yoda

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable over parts of the central Great Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Wyoming into the lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over ID Wednesday morning, will move east into the Dakotas during the period. A lower-latitude belt of moderate mid-level flow is forecast to move from NM/CO into the TX Panhandle by early evening and strengthen across KS overnight. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains and develop eastward along the KS/NE border late. A residual frontal zone over the central Great Plains is forecast to advance northward into NE during the day. Increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow will advect moisture into western NE/eastern WY by mid afternoon. Increasing large-scale ascent coupled with the diurnal weakening of a capping inversion, will support widely scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. Large to very large hail is possible in addition to severe gusts with supercellular activity. By early evening, additional storms will probably develop farther east within the moisture plume over west-central NE as a LLJ strengthens and a potential tornado risk before upscale growth occurs. There is high confidence in the eventual development of an MCS to move across southern NE and into northern KS overnight. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) and richer moisture may aid in the development of a mature/severe MCS. Model run-to-run consistency and increased confidence yielded 30-percent wind probabilities this outlook update. Severe gusts, potentially significant, could accompany the more pronounced bowing portions of the squall line as it moves east into the lower MO Valley late. ...Southwest Kansas into west TX... A lee trough/dryline is forecast to sharpen during the day as 60s F dewpoints are forecast in the High Plains. Forecast soundings show a very unstable airmass developing by late afternoon across the TX Panhandle with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE expected. Localized erosion of CINH will likely lead to widely scattered thunderstorms developing. Effective shear around 40 kt will favor supercells with a threat for very large hail and severe gusts. A tornadic supercell is possible, especially where temperature/dewpoint spreads are locally minimized. Increasing convective inhibition during the evening will eventually lead to a diminished severe risk by late evening.

Looks like Wednesday will be our first chance in a while to see some "severe" and have some storms... MRGL risk for some gusty to damaging winds

At least we are still playing... for now. Game 5's ending was stupid... thanks Jarry

5% tor probs up

Be careful or capitalweather will come out of hiding and take you to task for this post

Good luck tonight... prepare for OT

Interesting... they downgraded Major Hurricane Iota to a high end Cat 4 at 155mph after postseason analysis https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1394742090966372359

Chilling with $40K more like it good sir

https://www.nhl.com/news/washington-capitals-lars-eller-injury-update/c-324802404?tid=277548856

Would be nice to see/hear some good storms... interestingly no mention in the SPC 4-8 day OTLK of anything nearby or even in the LWX AFD this morning... besides maybe on Sunday afternoon

Pendulum swinging all over the place in tonight's Caps game

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0651.html Mesoscale Discussion 0651 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Areas affected...Southeast/East-Central NM...TX South Plains...TX Permian Basin Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 171911Z - 172115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated with the next hour or two across far southeast NM/far southwestern TX Panhandle/western Permian Basin. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible and a Tornado Watch will be issued to cover the severe threat. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over about 45 miles northwest of ROW. A dryline extends southeastward from this low through much of southeast NM before arcing back more southward across the TX Trans Pecos. Northward returning low-level moisture also results in an effective warm front, which extends from the surface low northeastward through De Baca County NM and then back southeastward through the TX South Plains. Deepen cumulus has been observed within the area between these two boundaries, with a few orphan anvils recently noted. Expectation is for eventual convective initiation along the dryline as it continues eastward/northeastward. Air mass across the region has become moderately unstable, with mesoanalysis estimating 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is in place with little to no convective inhibition. Effective deep layer shear is currently around 30 to 40 kt, with a gradual increase anticipated over the next few hours as the shortwave trough moves through. Overall environment supports initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes. Some upscale growth is anticipated over time, which will result in a transition to strong wind gusts as the primary severe threat. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0650.html Mesoscale Discussion 0650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Areas affected...Northeast NM...Southeast CO...Western OK Panhandle...Northwest TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171839Z - 172045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase throughout the afternoon across northeast NM and southeast CO. Some severe storm are probable, with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a relatively complex pattern across the central and southern High Plains. Of interest for northeast NM and southeast CO is the weakening cold front extending from south-central CO southeastward through the TX Panhandle. Temperatures are relatively cool and dewpoints modest on either side of this boundary, but persistent low-level convergence is leading to some deeper cu, particularly in south-central CO. Additionally, area south of front across northeast NM to warm and destabilize. Recent TCC observation reported a temperature of 70 and a dewpoint of 53. Mesoanalysis estimates convective inhibition has eroded across this area, which is matched by modified forecast soundings. An increase in cumulus coverage has been noted over the past hour, with deeper cumulus recently observed closer to the high terrain where orographic effects and strengthening large-scale lift are promoting deeper ascent. Expectation is for continued destabilization coupled with strengthening ascent to result in eventual convective initiation away from the higher terrain. Convergence along the front will also likely result in storm development. A predominantly northeastward storm motion is expected, eventually taking the storms in the TX Panhandle. Some in situ development along the cold front is also possible. Overall vertical shear will remain modest, but still strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly given the steep mid-level lapse rates. Hail will be the primary severe threat, with some damaging wind gusts possible as well. Low-level wind profiles will be weak, but veering with height could still support a brief tornado or two. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

Well... resistance is futile...

That was because he didn't get to play full time and was rotated in and out

Ugh... why Kerrigan, why? https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ryan-kerrigan-signing-with-rival-eagles-after-pass-rusher-says-goodbye-following-10-year-run-in-washington/

Sounds like Anderson in net tonight... wonder who backup is.

Are you headed to TX today? If you are still out there chasing that is

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the southern Plains later this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail and a few tornadoes will be concentrated across northwest Texas. ...West TX/Western OK... An active period of severe weather is forecast for later today across portions of west TX and southwest OK. The latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary from overnight thunderstorms extending from southeast NM to near Midland, TX. This boundary is not expected to move much farther south before weakening and retreating northward by late morning. This will allow ample low-level moisture to return northward into parts of west/northwest TX by mid afternoon. Strong heating will eliminate the cap along the dryline, resulting in rapid thunderstorm development this afternoon from eastern NM into west TX near Lubbock. These storms will move into an environment of very high instability (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg), steep mid level lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km, and effective shear values of 40-50 knots. Intense supercell structures are expected, capable of very large hail. Low-level shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, but given the unusually favorable thermodynamic environment, a few tornadoes may result this afternoon and evening along the western edge of greatest boundary-layer moisture/CAPE - therefore have added a 10% tornado area. Storms will expand in coverage through the evening, spreading across the TX Panhandle and western OK with a continued risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southwest TX... Strong instability will also be present along the dryline extending southward toward the Rio Grande. While model guidance is less confident in coverage/placement/timing of storms, there will be a conditional risk of supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have expanded the ENH risk slightly farther east to account for recent HRRR runs that depict greater coverage of convection.

Upgraded to 10% on 1300 OTLK

Oshie to dressing room per NBC announcers ETA - back

Uh oh Vanacek Leaves game with injury

Looks like Oshie is playing