yoda

Can we have some sun and like, low 70s for a few weeks please?

Large 30 percent added on days 4 and 5 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A substantial, multi-day severe thunderstorm event will continue on Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across much of the central CONUS. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur. ...Day 4/Tuesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest... Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement regarding the eastward progression of an upper trough across the western/central CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone is forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through the day, reaching the vicinity of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. Low-level moisture will advect rapidly northward ahead of the surface low and east of a dryline across parts of the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to be present over much of the warm sector, which should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability east of the dryline by Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level height falls and related ascent preceding the upper trough overspread the southern/central Plains, convection will likely initiate along the dryline from eastern KS to central TX. Even with deep-layer shear forecast to remain fairly modest through the day, the large reservoir of buoyancy will likely support robust severe thunderstorms. Large to very large hail should occur with initially discrete convection, and damaging winds will be a concern as convection grows upscale Tuesday night. Greater tornado potential may focus across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley, where better low-level shear should be present owing to a strengthening low-level jet. A 30% severe area has been included where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley/Midwest and Southeast... Convection still posing some severe threat may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South in a strong low-level warm advection regime. As the large-scale upper trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS, low-level moisture should continue to stream northward across the lower/mid MS Valley into parts of the Midwest. There are some differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of this upper trough on Day 5/Wednesday. Still, it appears likely that scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will develop across the broad warm sector and to the east of a cold front/dryline through much of the day. Strong deep-layer shear should combine with adequate instability to support updraft organization. All severe hazards appear possible with this convection, and any supercells will pose a threat for tornadoes in addition to large hail and damaging winds. Even with lingering uncertainty regarding the possible effect of early-day convection and some model differences in the placement of the upper trough and related surface features, enough confidence exists to include a 30% severe area for parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. This region appears to have the best chance for substantial destabilization Wednesday afternoon and discrete supercells. An isolated severe threat will probably persist into Wednesday evening/night across parts of the Midwest into the lower OH Valley and Southeast. Even though low-level moisture and instability should gradually decrease with eastward extent across these regions, both low-level and deep-layer shear will likely remain strong. This may support a continued severe threat through much of the overnight hours.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/summaries_and_publications/extremes.html

Chance of a frost/freeze early next week before that though

Second TOR confirmed from March 31st

Hatched tor on day 2 1730 OTLK

10% tor added for N LA into W MS on 1630z OTLK

The 06z GFS is trying to say its 46 degrees at that time at DCA... so its showing -20 temp anomalies because its supposed to be in the upper 60s per climate

I'll take the under... always seem to have a river wind that denies us

Middle of the week threat maybe?

LWX says few more hours to go in updated AFD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 PM Update: A cold front currently situated over far western portions of the forecast area will continue to sweep eastward over the next few hours. Behind the front, conditions will become stable, ending any threat for thunderstorms. Currently there is a cluster of thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor in northeast MD, and a scattering of thunderstorms trailing behind that through the center of the forecast area. Current SPC Mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to the east of the front, with effective shear values of 50+ knots. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms may continue to be possible over the next couple of hours. A strong low-level jet is present to the east of I-95 ahead of the northeast MD storms, but winds are much weaker at low levels farther west (despite the strong winds still present at mid- levels). As a result, any residual (low- end) tornado threat would be across northeastern MD. Damaging winds and large hail can`t be ruled out with the storms further to the west.

Looks like one more STW for you tonight lol

Instead of saying FILTERED sunshine... i typed FILETED sunshine through the clouds

Its @Ian

hmmm

But who will be measuring the snow if Doomsday arrives early?

Seems like the Culpepper storm is going to try one more time to go severe

Looks like Woodstock getting smoked by a nasty pop up storm

Tornado Warning has been cancelled ETA -- all severe warnings by LWX have been cancelled

Could be... but these are moving in from the SW... the storms here now moved in from the west. We'll see

Another storm developing behind the Culpepper one

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 846 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... The northern District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... North central Arlington County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 915 PM EDT. * At 846 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Mclean, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Arlington around 855 PM EDT. Bethesda, Martin`s Additions, American University, Friendship Village and Georgetown around 900 PM EDT. Fort Totten and Chevy Chase around 905 PM EDT. Langley Park, Takoma Park and Hillandale around 910 PM EDT. Hyattsville and Adelphi around 915 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Rivercrest, Little Falls, Brentwood, West Mclean, Chevy Chase Village, Catholic University, Langley, North Brentwood, Chillum and National Zoo. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

um... Culpeper cell is intensifying quickly

Off work tonight at Amazon... but just had to enter the group chat (for management) and do an "ALL MEMBERS" alert about the tornado warning