yoda

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 949 AM EST MON JAN 03 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0930 AM SNOW 3 E CHANTILLY 38.87N 77.36W 01/03/2022 M4.2 INCH FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER

9:35am ZFP's now has 6-10 DC/FFX/PW... 8-12 PG/Spotsy/Stafford

From an hour ago PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 922 AM EST MON JAN 03 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0830 AM SNOW 3 N CHANTILLY 38.91N 77.41W 01/03/2022 M3.3 INCH FAIRFAX VA NWS EMPLOYEE

Nice hit on the 06z GFS for late Thursday night into Friday morning

Mesoscale Discussion 0028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southwest through northern Virginia and central Maryland Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 031013Z - 031415Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around 1-2 inches per hour and occasionally greater appear increasingly possible along and to the east of the Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains, into the Greater Washington D.C. and Baltimore Metropolitan areas, through 7-10 AM EST. DISCUSSION...Precipitation rates have increased along a frontal zone north through north-northeast of a deepening surface cyclone center across the South Carolina Piedmont. Although temperatures near the surface and in layers aloft are generally still warm to the east of the Appalachians, across much of the southern Mid Atlantic, a combination of strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and gradual low-level cold advection on northerly surface flow is likely to contribute to profiles increasingly conducive to snow. Surface temperatures are already approaching freezing across much of the Greater Baltimore and Washington D.C. metro areas into the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, where strengthening mid-level frontogenetic forcing for ascent appears likely to become focused, beneath an intensifying divergent flow field between coupled upper jets. Forecast soundings suggest that lift will become increasingly maximized within the dendritic growth layer through 12-15Z, in the presence of seasonably high moisture content (including precipitable water on the order of .75-1.0 inches) supportive of 1-2 inch per hour snow rates, and perhaps occasionally heavier. ..Kerr.. 01/03/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...MRX...

Fox5 just said report of TSSN in/near CHO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 319 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will continue to track northeastward along a cold front today. High pressure returns for Tuesday before a weak cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. Another low pressure system is slated to cross the region late in the week. Drier weather returns over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest WV imagery depicts a potent H5 trough beginning to take on a negatively tilted profile as a surface low pressure system currently over the southeast US tracks northeastward. Precip continues to spread over the area early this morning. Temperatures are sitting in the mid to upper 30s across many locations with some low 40s closer to the metro areas and southern MD. While precip is mainly in the form of rain currently, CC bright banding is showing some mixing in with sleet that`s becoming more widespread. In addition, some snow MPING reports and beginning to show over portions of the Blue Ridge. All of this is an indication of a warm mid layer continuing to erode away as colder air is advected into the region. Forecast generally remains on track from earlier forecasts. Only have made minor adjustments to snow totals to account for a slightly more NW shift in track. As such, have expanded the Winter Storm Warning farther NW. Expect the heaviest snow to begin developing closer to daybreak and last through most of the morning hours. There remains some uncertainty as to how far north the heaviest snow bands will develop. Latest hi-res guidance, in conjunction with previous runs, continues to depict a band of strong frontogenesis, slated to develop in a SW to NE orientation from the Central Shenandoah Valley, across southern Central VA, to just south of the DC Metro Area and points south. Strong omega in the snow growth zone, gives confidence that said bands have the potential to produce snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour at times along and southeast of the aforementioned locations. If that`s the case, with cold air in place yielding near 10:1 snow ratios, will see snow totals add up quickly. More so, given the fact that this will be occurring during the morning rush hour, will make driving quite difficult with visibilities lowering to a quarter of a mile in the heaviest banding, along with gusty winds that can result in blowing snow. Snow will begin to taper off from SW to NE through the afternoon hours as the low departs the area. Do expect the entire system to be offshore by early this evening. Cold air will remain in place overnight lows dropping down into the teens to low 20s for most.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 VAZ026-029-039-040-051-031600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T1800Z/ Rockingham-Page-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper- 256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. * WHERE...Madison, Page, Rockingham, Rappahannock and Culpeper Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. Rain, sleet, and snow will change to all snow by 6 AM this morning. The heaviest snow will be this morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one- half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 MDZ016>018-VAZ055>057-031600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T2100Z/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- 256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and the Virginia Piedmont including the Fredericksburg Metropolitan area. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one- half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 VAZ025-036>038-050-507-508-031600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T1800Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Orange- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with amounts around 8 to 14 inches along the Blue Ridge Mountains. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia, the Potomac Highlands of Virginia, and the Blue Ridge Mountains. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. A mixture of rain, sleet, and snow will change to all snow by 6 AM. The heaviest snow will be through this morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one- half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 MDZ008-011-508-031600- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T1800Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T2100Z/ Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Southeast Harford- 256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Cecil, Southern Baltimore and Southeast Harford Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. Precipitation may begin as a mix of rain, sleet, and snow, but precipitation will change to all snow by 6 am this morning. The heaviest snow will be through midday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one- half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.

Its crap snow. Next Better than the Euro

00z gfs has snow in DC at 99 and 102 and 105 (Friday storm)

We fine... they lost a few inches

00z gfs nudged south just a tad... but big changes for the MRB to FDK crew if you believe this run

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- 9:30 PM UPDATE: Latest surface analysis depicts that the cold front has pushed through the entire forecast area at this point, with cooler temps and drier air pushing in behind it. Low pressure is developing over the GA/AL border and moving in our direction tonight. In the wake of the cold front pushing through, the low pressure will begin to spread precipitation northeastward across the region starting late this evening and continuing into the early morning. Latest HRRR and NAM have continued a slight northwest shift. For this reason, updates are forthcoming to the forecast. Have decided to add eastern Loudoun County, VA into the Winter Storm Warning given this trend. QPF amounts have continued to trend upwards even into southern Baltimore, southern Harford, and Cecil counties in MD. However, uncertainty is still too high, so won`t be changing anything there for now headline wise

Eastern Loudoun upgraded to WSW from WWA

Big 18z GFS run here

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this evening, with low pressure then moving northeastward along the front late tonight into Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday before a weak system passes east Tuesday night. High pressure will return Wednesday before another system threatens for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest analysis shows cold front across western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, sliding southeast across the region. To the south, low pressure is organizing over Alabama and Georgia and will be riding northeast across the Carolinas tonight and off the coast Monday. A few showers will cross the region this evening as the cold front crosses the area. Temps will fall rapidly behind the front. Quick on its heals, the low pressure will begin to spread precipitation northeastward across the region starting late this evening and continuing into the early morning. Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part. Storm system looks a little slower so did extend some warnings into the mid-afternoon, with snow probably out of here by evening rush hour. There may be enough sun late in the day to warm temps back above freezing for most, which presents a re- freeze potential.

Sigh

18z RGEM nudged south slightly... but now shows a larger ribbon of 12"+ from around CHO to EZF into S MD that wasn't there at 12z

You know when Bob Chill and Zwyts (Deck Pic) are back posting... it's on lol

EPS mid month was quite tasty at h5

Not saying it's the same... but didn't we have a somewhat similar kind of storm in March a few years back? 50s/60s a few days or day before and I think with wet ground... ended up starting as snow and we got like 8"?

06z Euro looks really nice