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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... East central Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 352 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 15 miles southeast of Romney, moving east at 55 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR PORTIONS OF FREDERICK COUNTY, SHENANDOAH COUNTY, WARREN COUNTY, AND CLARKE COUNTY IN VA INCLUDING THE CITY OF WINCHESTER. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Strasburg, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City, Wardensville, Star Tannery, Middletown, Boyce, Yellow Spring, High View, White Post, Gaylord, Blue Mountain, Nineveh, Albin, Bethel, Clary, Capon Springs and Stringtown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across portions of northern Virginia. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3921 7794 3914 7784 3906 7789 3900 7799 3894 7804 3904 7865 3927 7852 TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 280DEG 48KT 3916 7859 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  2. yoda
    Uhhh come again Radarscope on that 4 inch hail marker
  3. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 348 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... East central Washington County in north central Maryland... Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Northern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 348 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Emmitsburg to near Wolfsville to near Saint James, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Westminster, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Eldersburg, Mount Airy, Taneytown, Hampstead, Walkersville, Manchester, Sykesville, Boonsboro, Braddock Heights, New Market, Mount Lena, Gamber, Clover Hill, Discovery-Spring Garden, Wolfsville and Linganore-Bartonsville.
  4. yoda
    evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 346 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 WVC027-031-122000- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-220712T2000Z/ Hardy WV-Hampshire WV- 346 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDY AND SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES... At 345 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of Wardensville, or 12 miles south of Romney, moving east at 50 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTHERN HARDY AND SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN WV. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Wardensville, Augusta, Bean Settlement, Yellow Spring, Delray, Inkerman, Kirby, Rio, Capon Springs, High View and Lehew. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3907 7887 3933 7883 3927 7841 3926 7842 3924 7840 3920 7844 3916 7841 3915 7843 3913 7844 3911 7846 3911 7848 3903 7857 TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 282DEG 44KT 3916 7873 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  5. yoda
    Tennis ball sized hail? Da hell
  6. yoda
    Holy sh*t BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Northern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 335 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of Moorefield, moving east at 50 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTHERN HARDY AND SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY WV. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Moorefield, Wardensville, Burlington, Russelldale, Augusta, Bean Settlement, Old Fields, Yellow Spring, Purgitsville, Mcneill, Delray, Inkerman, Kirby, Rio, Junction, Capon Springs, High View and Lehew. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3927 7841 3926 7842 3924 7840 3920 7844 3916 7841 3915 7843 3913 7844 3911 7846 3911 7848 3903 7857 3909 7900 3934 7893 TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 282DEG 44KT 3919 7889 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  7. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 WVC023-027-031-057-122000- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-220712T2000Z/ Grant WV-Mineral WV-Hardy WV-Hampshire WV- 333 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL GRANT...SOUTH CENTRAL MINERAL...NORTHERN HARDY AND SOUTHWESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES... At 332 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Keyser to near Moorefield, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Moorefield, Burlington, Russelldale, Bean Settlement, Old Fields, Purgitsville, Lahmansville, Mcneill, Delray, Baker, Medley, Inkerman, Kirby, Rio, Williamsport, Junction and Mccauley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These storms are producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage across northern Hardy County and southern Hampshire County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3903 7869 3909 7911 3939 7896 3921 7851 TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 257DEG 37KT 3935 7891 3909 7905 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  8. yoda
    Radarscope now showing rotation markers on the storms in E WV
  9. yoda
    Half dollar size hail report in Allegheny County MD at 302pm
  10. yoda
    Yay flood watch lol Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 634 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-503>506-VAZ052>054-121845- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0013.220712T2000Z-220713T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Damascus, Falls Church, Bethesda, Chantilly, Centreville, College Park, Reisterstown, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, Germantown, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Gaithersburg, Severn, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Ellicott City, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Laurel, and Franconia 634 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * WHEN...From 4 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will move across the region late this afternoon through the evening hours. Heavy rain will accompany a number of these storms which may drop 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in an hour. Additionally, some regions could see repeat thunderstorm activity leading to an enhanced threat for flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
  11. yoda
    I wasn't really counting on a tornado threat tomorrow... but LWX has it in their afternoon AFD SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A low pressure trough of low pressure should set up on the leeside of the mountains late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. Winds will increase out of the south to south- southwest, leading to increasing warmth and humidity where temperatures will climb into the 90s with dewpoint temperatures punching into the lower to middle 70s. This will be the fuel for the thunder that is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches the region. CAPE values will rise into the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The combination of this CAPE and some added wind shear as mid-level energy sweeps in from the northwest will get developing thunderstorms to possibly become severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing any one of the severe weather aspects such as flooding downpours, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. SPC has the northeastern one-third of our region in the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Depending on additional model data late this afternoon and this evening, this area may be brought farther south and east into eastern Virginia and parts of southern Maryland. The timing on any severe thunderstorms on Tuesday will be from mid- afternoon through early evening, especially for the metro areas. The actual cold front should pass through the region later Tuesday night, perhaps an hour or two before daybreak on Wednesday. Afterwards, the front could stall near the Virginia and North Carolina border on Wednesday.
  12. yoda
    Looks like Tuesday afternoon may be our last chance for some storms or even severe storms for the next 10 days or so -- from this afternoon's AFD: With southerly flow and moisture return ahead of a cold front Tuesday, temperatures will soar toward the low 90s for most locales. PWs will increase through the day to near 1.75-2" east of I-81 by the evening. Profiles show a decent overlap of CAPE in the -10 to -20C layer on soundings, so there could be a large hail threat in combination with a damaging wind threat in any thunderstorm. There could be two rounds of thunderstorms: 1) Along a lee-side pressure trough near and east of the Blue Ridge and 2) With the frontal boundary itself. There is also noteworthy shear for this time of year (40-50 kts of bulk shear).
  13. yoda
    What are the ARIs that LWX AFD talks about?
  14. yoda
    Before Isabel weakened to a Cat 2... I was very concerned for the Mid Atlantic considering it was an annular Cat 5 for a while. It's only a matter of time before DC gets visited by a 1933 Chesapeake Hurricane redux
  15. yoda
    @WxUSAF has turned on the drought magnet
  16. yoda
    DPs are already in the low 70s out... yuck
  17. yoda
    Morning AFD update from LWX as of 1035am NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Latest surface analysis show a quasi-stationary front stalled near the VA/NC border with a cold front draped across the Great Lakes. The stationary front will gradually lift north through the day and into tonight and eventually interact/collide with the approaching cold front. Through the early afternoon, the local region is going to be positioned between two shortwaves with subsidence. Guidance continues to suggest showers and thunderstorms develop on the lee-side pressure trough late this afternoon as a weak shortwave moves through. These showers/thunderstorms then slowly advance to the northeast, posing an isolated flood/flash flood threat for any storms that train over the same area. Uncertainty in coverage and placement of the lee-pressure trough and therefore the thunderstorm placement is somewhat uncertain. Current thinking is anywhere from the Shenandoah Valley to east of the Blue Ridge. Any thunderstorm is capable of producing gusty winds. As the aforementioned frontal boundaries begin to merge nearby, a line of convergence will develop overnight. A stronger shortwave with low-level to surface based broad low pressure will move over the frontal boundary this evening into the overnight. This low will continue advancing along the front through Saturday. PWs will be near record levels for the day, with widespread 2-2.5" values (2-3 SA above climo). The WCL will be high (above 4 km), with a high FZL indicating warm rain processes will be dominant. Given the forecast low-level forcing, the PWs in guidance seem realistic. There are two variables leading to some uncertainty: 1) The amount of instability (generally 100-750 J/kg) and 2) The spread in models with where exacting the positioning of the front will be and the amount of low-level and fgen forcing present with the low as it moves nearby. Should the higher magnitudes of forcing be realized, a higher-impact heavy rain event would be plausible, however should the lower magnitudes of forcing come to fruition, this may be more of a beneficial light to moderate soaking rain. The area of greatest concern remains over the largely hydrophobic Baltimore/Washington Metro areas. FFG is lowest in this area. Will continue to assess latest 12Z guidance before making any headline considerations.
  18. yoda
    Closer view
  19. yoda
  20. yoda
    12z FV3 Hi-Res is for DC metro
  21. yoda
  22. yoda
    12z NAM NEST still drops 3 to 5 in DC metro into S MD
  23. yoda
  24. yoda
    FWIW... that's some heat on the 18z GFS in the Day 10 to 15 range
  25. yoda
    1-3"
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