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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Almost looks like that storm/complex is turning more southward...
  2. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 226 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 226 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Frederick, Damascus, Poolesville, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, New Market, Boyds, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Linganore-Bartonsville, Clarksburg, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Monrovia, Barnesville, Ijamsville, Mount Pleasant, Park Mills, and Lucketts.
  3. yoda
    WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 495/496 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 219 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026 MDC013-021-027-031-033-190100- /O.CAN.KLWX.SV.A.0496.000000T0000Z-260719T0100Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.TO.A.0495.000000T0000Z-260719T0100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 495 UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MARYLAND THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND CARROLL FREDERICK THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BALLENGER CREEK, BETHESDA, BOWIE, BOYDS, BUCKEYSTOWN, CLARKSVILLE, CLINTON, COLLEGE PARK, COLUMBIA, ELDERSBURG, FOUR CORNERS, FREDERICK, GAITHERSBURG, GAMBER, GERMANTOWN, GLENMONT, GREENBELT, HISTORIC ELLICOTT CITY, MONTPELIER, PARK MILLS, SILVER SPRING, SIMPSONVILLE, SUITLAND-SILVER HILL, TANTALLON, WESTMINSTER, AND WOODSTOCK. $$
  4. yoda
    That seems odd
  5. yoda
    Fwiw, Radarscope is tagging max hail of 3.5"
  6. yoda
    FDK storm really needs a TW...
  7. yoda
    FDK cell may need a TW soon... 70mph winds and tornado possible tag in it in latest SWS
  8. yoda
    Another MCD for C into S VA into NC with STWatch needed soon in it... I guess we will get lumped into that Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181756Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25 kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed shortly. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734 37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087 35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  9. yoda
  10. yoda
    Just appeared to in like last 5 minutes if you put radar in motion
  11. yoda
    DPs are in the 75-80 range across the region as temperatures rise into the low 90s
  12. yoda
    Yes, agree. The watch that just came out from them goes into E PA which was a bit surprising to me considering the new watch box for our area would seem to go overtop that... I guess your idea would work. The watch to our north in PA covers like half our MCD lol
  13. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1648.html Mesoscale Discussion 1648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Pennsylvania...eastern West Virginia...northern Virginia...much of Maryland...Delaware...southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181650Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through early-mid afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary concern as storms evolve into eastward-moving clusters and line segments. A watch is likely prior to 18z. DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating of a very moist air mass is ongoing across the discussion area as of 1645z, contributing to moderate/pockets of strong surface-based instability. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across the higher terrain, and along a north-south confluence zone across southern PA south into northern VA, during the next few hours. As coverage continues to increase and low-level lapse rates steepen, the potential for damaging gusts will increase across the discussion area this afternoon and early evening. Additionally, low-level shear will remain locally enhanced in the vicinity of a warm front across southeast PA/southern NJ. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell structures, and the risk for tornadoes, potentially strong, will be maximized in this area. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is likely prior to 18z. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39077931 40007859 40547698 40477526 40267451 39987411 39137439 38627538 38437699 38487839 38647934 39077931 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  14. yoda
    Sounds like leaning towards Tornado Watch
  15. yoda
    TW up from CTP on a storm moving ESE... would be near HGR in a few hours
  16. yoda
    @high risk could there be some differential heating boundaries later? I'm assuming that with the rain/storms in PA, the WF will not push as far north and increase risk for a few tornadoes?
  17. yoda
    Should be getting a MCD soon, probably in next hour
  18. yoda
    S winds being reported on the 11am obs up to BWI... 84/75 S at 9 at DCA... C VA like CHO, Culpepper, EZF already upper 80s
  19. yoda
    Its "sunny" here in Springfield... just you can't tell with the smoky haze
  20. yoda
    12z IAD sounding
  21. yoda
    Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .A slow-moving front will interact with a very humid airmass in place to result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. MDZ501-502-509-510-WVZ503-504-182130- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0009.260718T1600Z-260719T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 923 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 2 AM EDT LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Allegany and Garrett Counties in Maryland, and Mineral County in West Virginia. * WHEN...From noon today through 2 AM EDT late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - High humidity coupled with a slow-moving front is expected to result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Localized rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour, with isolated totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
  22. yoda
    That's from 7am lol
  23. yoda
    Looks like @CAPE got a flush hit
  24. yoda
    SPC also went 5% tor for areas NE of a line from basically HGR to DC... and CIG 1 for extreme NE MD into SE PA/NJ with mention of a few strong tornadoes
  25. yoda
    Which is a bit confusing... because if let's say on the 1300z SPC OTLK, 60 wind with no CIG is introduced... its still ENH risk. But if a CIG 1 is introduced with the 60 wind, it becomes a moderate risk per the conversion table
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