uncle W

1933-34 had a December/February big events... I think the snow came down faster yesterday...most of my snow fell in four hours...

the November average went up 0.7" making it 1.3" for the last nine years...it will be 1.1" for the decade if we get nothing next November...the decade already has the October and January record...last decade has the February record...

I think I know a little about the weather but never thought the city would get 2" let alone 6" of snow...I was thinking a slushy inch before the rain came...

it was hail...

this is the most snow NYC got this early in the season...it beats out 2012 until 11/25 when 1938 took over... record seasonal snowfall for each date... 10/10/1979/1925...trace... 10/13/1979/1925/1937...trace... 10/15/1876.....0.5" 10/20/1952/1876...0.5" 10/29/2011.....2.9" 11/07/2012.....4.3" 11/08/2012.....4.7" 11/15/2018.....6.0" 11/25/1938.....8.8" 11/26/1938.....9.3" 11/27/1898...13.0" 11/30/1898...19.0" 12/12/1898...19.5" 12/14/2003...19.8" 12/20/1948...21.3" 12/25/1883...22.0" 12/26/1947...29.3" 12/31/1872...30.5" 01/07/1948...32.9" 01/13/1948...33.3" 01/14/1948...35.1" 01/18/1948...37.8" 01/21/1948...39.4" 01/26/2011...49.4" 01/27/2011...56.1" 02/01/2011...57.2" 02/02/2011...57.7" 02/16/1996...60.9" 02/17/1996...61.7" 03/02/1996...66.3" 03/08/1996...70.8" 03/28/1996...71.1" 03/29/1996...74.9" 04/09/1996...75.2" 04/10/1996...75.6" 04/30/1996...75.6" ........................................ least... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/20/1973.....trace 1/28/1973.....trace 1/29/1994.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

4.5" with snow and sleet falling...

when the AO NAO get quite negative in November stronger blocks usually come in December...Boston should see 35" by mid January with this pattern...

1866-67 was big in the NYC area...some records from 1872... https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/

when the AO NAO went negative in certain great winters in November it repeated the negatives into December and beyond in some cases... the nine years had a stronger block in December...2010 had a stronger -ao but a lesser - nao...2002 had a stronger -nao but a lesser -nao in December...some years with blocking didn't pan out...the forecast for the nao/ao is for both to get very negative...this raises the chances for a great December... year.....AO and dates..........NAO and dates............... 2010...-4.058...11/26...........-2.696...11/30 2010...-5.265...12/18...........-1.544...12/14 2009...-0.620...11/29...........-0.946...11/15 2009...-5.821...12/21...........-2.111...12/14 2002...-3.455...11/24............-1.025...11/23 2002...-2.757...12/30............-1.585...12/10 2000...-3.114...11/05............-1.412...11/06 2000...-4.688...12/29............-1.658...12/07 1995...-1.953...11/15............-1.751...11/16 1995...-4.343...12/19............-1.846...12/07 1977...-2.245...11/20...........-0.862...11/15 1977...-3.071...12/07............-2.132...12/07 1976...-2.188...11/21............-1.266...11/21 1976...-5.287...12/30............-2.220...12/23 1968...-4.201...11/15............-1.383...11/06 1968...-4.547...12/29............-1.697...12/06 1963...-2.770...11/11............-2.471...11/09 1963...-4.470...12/20............-2.397...12/14

there were more than a few storms on Dec. 26... 1872...18.0" on 12/26... 1890.....7.0" on 12/26 1933...11.2" on 12/26 1947...25.8" on 12/26-27 1969.....6.0" on 12/25-26 2010...20.0" on 12/26-27

NYC decade snow averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 2010-11 to 2017-18......0.4.....1.3.....5.1...15.7.......9.7.....6.2......0.7.....39.1 as of 11/15/18 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 ............................................................................................................................................................................. snowfalls 10" or greater...... Year....date....amount"... 1872...12/26.......18.0" 1875...4/13.........10.0" 1876...2/3-4........11.0" 1877...1/1-2........13.0" 1879...1/15-16....13.0" 1888...3/12-14....21.0" 1896...3/2...........10.0" 1896...3/15-16....12.0" 1897...1/27-28....10.0" 1898...11/26-27..10.0" 1899...2/12-14....16.0" 1902...2/17..........10.0" 1905...1/24-25.....11.0" 1907...2/4-5.........11.0" 1908...1/23-24.....10.0" 1910...1/14-15.....10.0" 1912...12/24........11.4" 1914...3/1-2.........14.5" 1915...4/3-4.........10.2" 1916...12/15........12.7" 1920...2/4-7.........17.5" 1921...2/20..........12.5" 1925...1/2............11.5" 1926...2/3-4.........10.4" 1926...2/9-10.......12.0" 1933...2/11..........10.0" 1933...12/26........11.2" 1935...1/23-24.....13.0" 1941...3/7-8.........18.1" 1947...2/20-21.....10.7" 1947...12/26-27...26.4" 1948...12/19-20...16.0" 1956...3/18-19.....11.6" 1958...3/19-20.....11.8" 1959...12/21-22...13.7" 1960...3/3-4.........14.5" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 1961...2/3-4.........17.4" 1964...1/12-13.....12.5" 1967...2/7............12.5" 1969...2/9-10.......15.3" 1978...1/19-20.....13.6" 1978...2/6-7.........17.7" 1979...2/19..........12.7" 1983...2/11-12.....17.6" 1993...3/13-14.....10.6" 1994...2/11..........12.8" 1995...2/4............10.8" 1996...1/7-8.........20.2" 1996...2/16-17.....10.7" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...2/16-17.....19.8" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2004...1/28..........10.4" 2005...1/22-23.....13.8" 2006...2/11-12.....26.9" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...2/9-10.......10.0" 2010...2/25-26.....20.9" 2010...12/26-27...20.0" 2011...1/25-26.....19.0" 2013...2/8-9.........11.4" 2014...1/21..........11.5" 2016...1/23-24.....27.5" .................................................................................................... 30" in 30 days... 02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0" 02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2" 12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4" 01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1" 01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2" 02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8" 12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2" 01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2" 01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6" 01/21-02/19, 2014.....42.1"  01/17-02/15, 2016.....31.5" ..................................................................................... snow depth days... season........Days ...............consecutive days....Max depth.. ...................T 1" 4" 10"20"........ T 1" 4" 10"20"  1913-14......57 32 22 06 0....... 34 30 14 04 0..... 13" 1917-18......84 57 29 00 0....... 68 30 16 00 0..... 09" 1919-20......92 67 36 02 0....... 61 55 28 02 0..... 12" 1922-23......71 54 22 00 0....... 24 19 06 00 0..... 08" 1925-26......65 33 16 06 2....... 30 23 15 05 2..... 20" 1933-34......71 47 28 06 0....... 32 16 12 04 0..... 13" 1940-41......56 27 08 01 0....... 14 12 04 02 0..... 13" 1947-48......83 65 54 33 5....... 65 58 53 16 5..... 26" 1948-49......50 30 17 03 0....... 11 10 10 03 0..... 14" 1949-50......29 09 00 00 0....... 03 03 00 00 0..... 03" 1950-51......45 13 00 00 0....... 16 04 00 00 0..... 03" 1951-52......40 14 02 00 0....... 06 04 01 00 0..... 06" 1952-53......38 08 01 00 0....... 07 03 01 00 0..... 04" 1953-54......32 14 10 00 0....... 16 11 10 00 0..... 09" 1954-55......35 13 00 00 0....... 06 04 00 00 0..... 03" 1955-56......51 20 08 02 0....... 11 08 07 02 0..... 13" 1956-57......52 18 04 00 0....... 11 06 02 00 0..... 06" 1957-58......69 37 17 01 0....... 23 09 06 01 0..... 10" 1958-59......45 19 01 00 0....... 12 10 01 00 0..... 05" 1959-60......61 27 10 06 0....... 13 09 06 04 0..... 15" 1960-61......77 52 41 20 3....... 38 32 30 10 3..... 24" 1961-62......59 26 04 00 0....... 17 10 03 00 0..... 06" 1962-63......62 23 07 00 0....... 13 11 07 00 0..... 04" 1963-64......76 42 21 05 0....... 27 14 08 05 0..... 13" 1964-65......58 31 06 00 0....... 28 13 03 00 0..... 06" 1965-66......38 23 09 00 0....... 24 19 07 00 0..... 07" 1966-67......64 34 16 05 0....... 16 10 08 05 0..... 13" 1967-68......44 23 01 00 0....... 15 15 01 00 0..... 06" 1968-69......55 33 20 08 0....... 32 24 17 07 0..... 15" 1969-70......71 47 08 00 0....... 39 35 04 00 0..... 06" 1970-71......58 11 03 00 0....... 20 04 03 00 0..... 06" 1971-72......60 21 06 00 0....... 12 08 03 00 0..... 05" 1972-73......30 03 00 00 0....... 03 02 00 00 0..... 02" 1973-74......57 38 07 00 0....... 20 17 07 00 0..... 06" 1974-75......35 10 03 00 0....... 06 05 03 00 0..... 08" 1975-76......41 27 03 00 0....... 12 08 02 00 0..... 04" 1976-77......69 47 09 00 0....... 53 37 07 00 0..... 06" 1977-78......94 56 30 12 0....... 67 35 20 06 0..... 18" 1978-79......42 23 09 03 0....... 18 17 04 03 0..... 16" 1979-80......36 10 01 00 0....... 07 03 01 00 0..... 04" 1980-81......49 27 05 00 0....... 25 21 03 00 0..... 08" 1981-82......48 24 12 01 0....... 17 17 08 01 0..... 10" 1982-83......34 22 10 06 0....... 18 16 09 06 0..... 19" 1983-84......54 28 12 00 0....... 17 16 06 00 0..... 07" 1984-85......44 25 10 00 0....... 31 13 09 00 0..... 07" 1985-86......41 15 08 00 0....... 14 12 06 00 0..... 06" 1986-87......49 31 12 00 0....... 19 17 11 00 0..... 09" 1987-88......49 31 10 00 0....... 18 16 09 00 0..... 09" 1988-89......23 07 02 00 0....... 04 03 02 00 0..... 05" 1989-90......46 16 02 00 0....... 06 04 02 00 0..... 05" 1990-91......27 13 06 00 0....... 04 04 02 00 0..... 08" Feb. LGA obs... 1991-92......36 11 02 00 0....... 07 04 02 00 0..... 06" 1992-93......49 21 06 01 0....... 10 09 05 01 0..... 10" 1993-94......95 74 31 08 3....... 76 40 13 08 3..... 22" 1994-95......33 15 12 01 0....... 16 15 12 01 0..... 10" 1995-96......72 55 35 14 6....... 18 17 12 10 6..... 25" LGA obs... 1996-97......35 08 00 00 0....... 04 02 00 00 0..... 03" LGA obs... 1997-98......27 02 01 00 0....... 03 02 01 00 0..... 04" LGA obs... 1998-99......29 10 01 00 0....... 04 03 01 00 0..... 04" LGA obs... 1999-00......40 23 08 00 0....... 24 19 05 00 0..... 06" LGA obs... 2000-01......57 33 17 02 0....... 18 16 11 02 0..... 13" LGA obs... 2001-02......22 03 00 00 0....... 04 03 00 00 0..... 03" LGA obs... 2002-03......71 42 23 05 1....... 26 25 12 05 1..... 20" LGA obs... 2003-04......50 36 20 02 0....... 28 25 08 01 0..... 11" LGA obs... 2004-05......59 41 20 02 0....... 22 16 13 02 0..... 10" LGA obs... 2005-06......32 19 06 03 1....... 12 12 05 04 1..... 16" LGA obs... 2006-07......31 15 02 00 0....... 07 05 02 00 0..... 05" 2007-08......30 08 04 00 0....... 04 04 04 00 0..... 06" 2008-09......47 32 07 00 0....... 06 06 03 00 0..... 08" 2009-10......45 29 23 08 1....... 15 12 11 04 1..... 21" 2010-11......69 58 45 23 3....... 54 54 27 16 2..... 23" 2011-12......14 05 01 00 0....... 03 03 01 00 0......04" 2012-13......38 15 08 02 0....... 07 05 05 02 0......10" 2013-14......81 64 45 16 0....... 49 49 33 14 0......18" 2014-15......69 57 48 19 0....... 50 50 46 17 0......19" 2015-16......32 12 09 04 2....... 12 10 09 04 2......22"  2016-17......37 24 09 00 0....... 11 06 04 00 0......09" 2017-18......52 26 13 01 0....... 13 08 07 01 0......10" 2018-19......03 03 02 00 0....... 03 03 02 00 0........6" as of 11/17 ....................................................................................................................................... record seasonal snowfall for each date... 10/10/1979/1925...trace... 10/13/1979/1925/1937...trace... 10/15/1876.....0.5" 10/20/1952/1876...0.5" 10/29/2011.....2.9" 11/07/2012.....4.3" 11/08/2012.....4.7" 11/15/2018.....6.4" 11/25/1938.....8.8" 11/26/1938.....9.3" 11/27/1898...13.0" 11/30/1898...19.0" 12/12/1898...19.5" 12/14/2003...19.8" 12/20/1948...21.3" 12/25/1883...22.0" 12/26/1947...29.3" 12/31/1872...30.5" 01/07/1948...32.9" 01/13/1948...33.3" 01/14/1948...35.1" 01/18/1948...37.8" 01/21/1948...39.4" 01/26/2011...49.4" 01/27/2011...56.1" 02/01/2011...57.2" 02/02/2011...57.7" 02/16/1996...60.9" 02/17/1996...61.7" 03/02/1996...66.3" 03/08/1996...70.8" 03/28/1996...71.1" 03/29/1996...74.9" 04/09/1996...75.2" 04/10/1996...75.6" 04/30/1996...75.6" ........................................ least... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/28/1973.....trace 1/29/1995.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

the most snow NYC got on Nov. 15th and 16th is 1"...1872 got an inch on the 16th...in December 18" fell on 12/26...60" fell that winter...Nov 15th 1906 saw 1" of snow in NYC...later on in the winter there was an 11" storm in early February...53" fell that winter... 1872... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1872-11-17/ed-1/seq-9/ 1906... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1906-11-16/ed-1/seq-1/

31 here the last two mornings...

1963-64 had a weak to moderate el nino...QBO was slightly positive...solar was low...2018 is similar and it follows two weak la nina's...63-64 followed two weak negatives...I doubt December gets as cold as 1963...but it still could be below average...

the 2010's are on pace for 30 snowfalls 4" or more...it has 24 since 2010-11... ten year period........# 1890-91-1899-00...33 1900-01-1909-10...32 1910-11-1919-20...23 1920-21-1920-29...20 1930-31-1939-40...20 1940-41-1949-50...23 1950-51-1959-60...18 1960-61-1969-70...21 1970-71-1979-80...16 1980-81-1989-90...20 1990-91-1999-00...22 2000-01-2009-10...27 2010-11-2017-18...24

snow depth for NYC...mostly from Central park...every three days starting with Dec. 1st...it is possible and has happened in the past a snowfall could fall between dates and melt before the third day... .............................December...................................January.......................................February......................................March................. year.....01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31...03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30...02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29...02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 51-52....0...0...0...0...0...2...1...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...3.....T...0...0...0...0...0...T...T...0...1.....1...0...T...0...T...0...0...0...0...0 52-53....T...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...3.....T...T...T...T....0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 53-54....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...T...9...7...7...T...T....0...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T 54-55....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...1...T...0...T....0...0.....3...1...0...T...T...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...0...0...0...3...0...0...T...0 55-56....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...3...T...0...T.....T...0...0...0...T...0...T....0...0...0.....T...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0....T.....0...T...0...1...0...6...8...1...0...0 56-57....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T.....0...T...T...0...2...3...T....0...2...T.....6...T...0...0...T...0...0...0...0....T.....T...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...0...0 57-58....0...8...1...0...1...T...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...4...3...T...2...1...0...0...0.....0...0...1...T...T...8...5...1...T....T.....0...0...0...0...2...0.11...T...0...0 58-59....0...0...0...2...1...1...T...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...1...0.....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0....0.....0...0...0...5...1...0...0...0...0...T 59-60....0...0...T...0...0...0...0.14...4...T...0.....0...0...0...2...T...T...T...T....0...0.....T...0...T...1...0...0...0...0...0...T...12.12...3...T...T....T...0...0...0...0 60-61....0...0...0...0.15.10...7...2...1...T...T.....0...0...0...0...1...T...9.10..13...9.....8.24.17.11..5...4...T...0...0...T......0...0...1...0...0...T...0...0...0...0 61-62....0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...6...3...1.....T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T.....2...0...0...2...2...1...1...T....0...0.....0...T...T...0...0...0...T...0...0...0 62-63....0...0...T...1...T...T...0...3...T....0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...4...4.....4...1...0...0...0...0...2...T...T...T.....1...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0 63-64....0...0...0...0...T...T...1...T....6...5...2.....2...T...0...1.13...8...T...0...0...0.....0...0...T...2...0...T...6...5...2...1.....0...0...0...1...0...0...1...0...0...0 64-65....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0.....1...0...0...6...T...4...2...3...1...T.....1...T...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...T...1...T...0...0 65-66....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2...2...7.....8...4...2...T...0...0...0...0...4...T.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 66-67....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...7...5...T.....T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T.....0...0.13.11...8...T...1...4...T...1.....0...0...0...0...2...3...1...6...T...0 67-68....3...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1...3.....3...3...3...2...T...0...0...T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...1.....T...0...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...0 68-69....0...0...0...0...0...5...1...T...0...2...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...0.15.11...9...6...5...2...1.....3...T...1...T...0...0...0...0...0...0 69-70....T...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...2...4...2.....1...1...2...3...2...1...4...3...2...T.....0...3...1...0...1...2...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...4 70-71....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...2...T...0...0.....5...T...0...0...1...T...T...2...T....T.....0...T....T...0...T...0...0...0...0...0.....T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 71-72....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T.....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T....T.....T...0...4...2...0...2...2...5...T....0.....0...T...0...T...1...0...0...0...0...0 72-73....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2.....0...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 73-74....0...0...0...0...0...2...3...T...0...0...0.....T...1...1...4...4...4...1...T....0...0.....T...1...6...3...T...T....0...0...1...T.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2 74-75....0...0...0...T...0...0...T...0...T...0...0.....T...0...0...0...T...0...T....0...0...0.....0...3...0...0...6...T...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0 75-76....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2...1...0...0.....0...0...0...2...T...0...2...1...0...0.....1...2...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...4...T...0...0...0...0...0...0 76-77....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2.....T...T...2...1...6...5...3...2...2...2.....1...4...2...1...T...0...2...T....0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0 77-78....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0.....1...0...1...0...2...1.15.11..T...T......T...T.18.10.10...6...5...4...4...3.....8...4...3...1...T...1...0...0...0...0 78-79....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...3...0...T...0...T...0...0...0...0.....0...0...4...3...3...3.16...2...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0 79-80....0...0...0...0...0...0...3...T...0...0...0.....0...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0...T.....0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0 80-81....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...T....0.....2...2...4...3...2...2...1...T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...6...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 81-82....0...0...0...T...0...T...0...T....0...0...0.....0...0...T...6...5...3...3...2...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 82-83....0...0...0...0...3...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...1...T...T...0...0...0.....0...0...2.14.16...8...3...T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 83-84....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1...T...0.....0...T...0...4...3...6...6...4...0...T......0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T.....0...0...0...7...3...T...0...0...0...2 84-85....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2...0.....0...T...0...T...T...4...3...1...T...T......4...6...5...3...T...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 85-86....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1.....0...0...5...6...5...3...T...0...0...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 86-87....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...1...7...9...6.....3...T...0...0...2...1...T...4...1...0.....0...0...0...2...0...0...0...0...0...0 87-88....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2.....2...5...9...4...3...1...0...0...2...1.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0 88-89....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0.....T....5...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...T.....0...3...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 89-90....0...T...0...0...T...1...T...0...0....T...T.....0...0...T...T....T...0...T...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2...0.....0...3...T...0...0...0...0...T...0...T 90-91....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...7...0.....0...0...T...4....0...0...2...T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...T....0...0...8...7.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...T 91-92....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0.....0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...1...2...0...0 92-93....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...0...0.....T...0...T....1...T...0...0...0...0...0.....T....0...2...0...1...0...0...1...T...T.....0...T...0....8...2...1...0...0...0...0 93-94....0...0...0...0...2...0...0...0...T...0...4.....T...1...2...5...3...5...5...5...7...1.....2...1...7.22.17.15...7...3...2...2.....7...4...T....T...T....3...T...0...T...0 94-95....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...8...7...5...4...2...0...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 95-96....1...0...0...T...0...1...5...7...3...2...1.....3...3.31.29...9...7...T...0...0...0.....1...6...4...0...1...9...2...0...0...0.....2...0...4...T...0...0...0...0...0...T 96-97....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...1...1...0...0...0...0...T...0.....0...0...3...0...1...T...0...0...0...0.....1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 97-98....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0 98-99....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0...T.....0...0...1...0...1...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0...1...0.....0...0...0...0...3...0...0...0...T...0 99-00....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...2...T...4...3.....2...4...1...0...0...0...1...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 00-01....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...T...0...0.12.....7...7...5...3...T...0...4...2...T...0.....0...5...0...0...0...T...0...6...0...0.....0...3...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 01-02....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...T...0...0...0...2...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0 02-03....0...0...5...1...0...0...0...0...5...2...0.....0...T...1...0...T...T...T...0...2...1.....0...0...5...2...T..19.12...4...2...1.....T...3...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.. 03-04....0...0.13...6...T...T...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...T...5...3...2...2...8...7.....7...2...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...4...0...0...0...0 04-05....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...2...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0.14.13.11.....8...6...4...0...0...0...1...T...4...6.....5...3...1...1...0...0...0...1...0...0 05-06....0...2...1...6...3...T...0...0...0...0...T.....T....0...0...0...2...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...2.15...2...0...0...0...T.....1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 06-07....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...1.....T....0...0...0...2...2...0...0...2...0.....0...0...0...0...0...3...T...0...0...0 07-08....0...0...T...0...T...1...0...0...0...0...T......0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...5...0...T.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 08-09....0...0...0...0...0...1...4...3...0...0...T......T...T...0...1...1...2...3...0...0...1.....T...3...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....8...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 09-10....0...0...0...0...0...0...9...7...2...0...1.....T...T...T....0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....1...0...0.10...8.10...4...0.21.15.....4...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 10-11....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0.18.13.....6...2...2...9...6...5...6...6.23.18...17.15.11...8...7...2...0...2...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1...0...0 11-12....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...4...0...0...0.....0...0...T...T....0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 12-13....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0.....T....T...6...9...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...4...0...0...3...0...0...0...0 13-14....0...0...0...1...0...3...3...0...0...0...T.....6...1...0...0...0...0.11...6...3...1.....1...9...9.10.18.17.15...9...6...6.....5...4...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0 14-15....0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...1...1...T...0...0...0...3.10...7.....8...7...8...8...8.12...9...9.11.11...14.19.13...4...0...0...4...0...0...0 15-16....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...T...0...0...0.22...9...6......T...2...T...T...0...0...0....T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0 16-17....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...1...3...0...1...0...0...T...0...T......0...0...0...5...2...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...T...6...3...0...0...0...0 17-18....0...0...0...4...T...2...0...0...T....0...T.....0...6...5...T...0...T...0...0...0...1......T...0...0...0...0...4...0...0...0...0.....0...0...2...T...0...0...8...0...0...0

I left out the storms with two day cold between 60 degree days...1970-71 had 6" of snow New Years day...1989 was left out for lack of snow...1984 and 1990 for lack of cold...there were nine good periods from 1959 to 1970...12 yrs...nine good ones since 2000...18 yrs...none from 1984 to 1992... dates..........max min precip snow..........dates..........max min precip snow...........dates..........max min precip snow..........dates.......max min precip snow 12/20/59.....33...25........0.........0..........12/11/60......34...19.....0.18"....3.6"........12/16/61.....32...14........0.........0..........12/16/62...31...23...0.01"...0.3" 12/21/59.....33,,,23.....0.25"....3.4"........12/12/60.....21.....9.....0.68"..11.6".........12/17/61.....35...30.....0.33"....0.4".......12/17/62...34...22......0........0 12/22/59.....28...17.....0.71"..10.3"........12/13/60.....20.....8........0........0............12/18/61.....39...32.....1.05".....0..........12/18/62...39...34......0........0 12/23/59.....23.....9........0.........0..........12/14/60......28...17........0........0............12/19/61.....42...36.....0.25".....0..........12/19/62...41...37......0........0 12/24/59.....31...18........0.........0..........12/15/60......40...22........0........0............12/20/61.....44...38.......0........0...........12/20/62...41...14......0........0 12/25/59.....39...30........0.........0..........12/16/60......40...30.....0.24"....0.1"........12/21/61.....41...32........0........0..........12/21/62...28...10...0.16"...2.3" 12/26/59.....45...34.....0.02"......0..........12/17/60......33...23........0........0...........12/22/61.....40...29........0........0..........12/22/62...37...28...0.38"...1.1" 12/27/59.....40...36.....0.07"......0..........12/18/60......35...24........0........0...........12/23/61.....37...26.....0.23"....2.8".......12/23/62...39...31......T........T 12/28/59.....43...36.....0.57"......0..........12/19/60......34...24.....0.11"....1.3"........12/24/61.....33...25.....0.35"....3.4".......12/24/62...34...24......0........0 12/29/59.....37...33.....0.27"....1.8"........12/20/60......34...21........0........0...........12/25/61.....36...22........0........0..........12/25/62...35...24...0.10"...0.3" ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12/18/63.....30...23.....0.14"....1.4"........12/20/66......37...24.....0.20".....T...........12/22/67.....62...38.....0.30".....0..........12/22/69...38...28...1.44".....T 12/19/63.....30...16.......T..........T...........12/21/66......34...28.....0.15"....1.2"........12/23/67.....38...28.....0.09"....1.2"......12/23/69...28...18......0........0 12/20/63.....26...11.......0..........0...........12/22/66......36...27........0........0...........12/24/67.....33...26........0........0..........12/24/69...27...17....0.01"....T 12/21/63.....22...11.......0..........0...........12/23/66......31...26........0........0...........12/25/67.....43...27.....0.12".....0..........12/25/69...29...14....0.25"...2.1" 12/22/63.....36...21.......0..........0...........12/24/66......26...22.....0.74"....6.7".......12/26/67.....40...27.....0.08".....0..........12/26/69...37...27....1.54"...4.2" 12/23/63.....32...28.....0.60"....6.0"........12/25/66......32...23.....0.05"....0.4"........12/27/67.....31...24.....0.02"....0.3"......12/27/69...30...22....0.06"...0.5" 12/24/63.....36...25.....0.08"....0.6"........12/26/66......31...24........0.........0...........12/28/67.....36...31.....1.29"....1.0"......12/28/69...36...28.......0........0 12/25/63.....39...33.......0..........0...........12/27/66......33...26........0.........0..........12/29/67.....36...24.....0.05".....0..........12/29/69...30...21.......0........0 12/26/63.....45...30.......0..........0...........12/28/66......29...22.....0.05"....0.4"........12/30/67.....31...20........0........0..........12/30/69...36...31....0.16"....0 12/27/63.....34...25.....0.10"....1.0"........12/29/66......48...28.....1.25"....0.4"........12/31/67.....34...26.....0.28"....3.0".......12/31/69...33...25....0.16"....0 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ dates........max min precip snow..............dates.........max min precip snow.............dates........max min precip snow...........dates.......max min precip snow 12/22/70.....32...23.....0.24"....1.8".........12/16/75.....52...31.....0.03".....0............12/22/76.....29...16........0........0..........12/15/80...31...18....0.09"...1.1" 12/23/70.....32...28.....0.21"......T...........12/17/75.....42...30........0.........0............12/23/76.....38...26........T........T..........12/16/80...37...31....0.01".....T 12/24/70.....33...30.....0.12"......0...........12/18/75.....39...19........0.........0............12/24/76.....32...24........0........0.........12/17/80...32...21.......0.........0 12/25/70.....32...29........0.........0...........12/19/75.....26...17........T.........T.............12/25/76.....36...23.....0.06"....0.4".....12/18/80...40...21.......0.........0 12/26/70.....33...22........T.........T............12/20/75.....41...22........T.........T.............12/26/76.....36...27.....0.36"....2.7".....12/19/80...41...17.......0.........0 12/27/70.....30...20........0.........0...........12/21/75.....27...22........T.........T.............12/27/76.....27...19........0.........0........12/20/80...26...14.......0.........0 12/28/70.....32...22........0.........0...........12/22/75.....32...24.....0.18"....1.8"..........12/28/76.....25...19.....0.13"....2.0"......12/21/80...27...16.......0.........0 12/29/70.....30...21........0.........0...........12/23/75.....34...22........0.........0.............12/29/76.....32...20........T.........T........12/22/80...32...19.......0.........0 12/30/70.....30...20........0.........0...........12/24/75.....23...16........0.........0.............12/30/76.....22...10........0.........0........12/23/80...34...29....0.16"...0.6" 12/31/70.....34...19........0.........0...........12/25/75.....31...17.....0.17"....0.5"..........12/31/76.....22...15........T.........T.........12/24/80...37...20....0.10"...1.0" .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12/18/83.....37...28........0.........0...........12/22/93.....40...34........0.........0.............12/11/95.....24...15........0.........0........12/21/00...33...22........0.........0 12/19/83.....34...21........0.........0...........12/23/93.....39...25........0.........0.............12/12/95.....26...16........0.........0........12/22/00...32...17....0.01"...0.8" 12/20/83.....25...17........0.........0...........12/24/93.....36...20........T.........T.............12/13/95.....28...20........0.........0........12/23/00...30...14........0.........0 12/21/83.....32...14........T.........T...........12/25/93.....34...26........T.........T..............12/14/95.....37...24.....0.42"....1.7".....12/24/00...31...23........0.........0 12/22/83.....53...31.....2.18"....0.6"........12/26/93.....32...15........T.........T..............12/15/95.....44...32........0.........0........12/25/00...27...15........0.........0 12/23/83.....41...22.....0.03"....0.2"........12/27/93.....20...10........0.........0.............12/16/95.....41...33.....0.21"....0.5"......12/26/00...30...14........0.........0 12/24/83.....22.....6.....0.07"....0.8"........12/28/93.....25...20........0.........0.............12/17/95.....41...31........0.........0........12/27/00...32...21........0.........0 12/25/83.....13.....4........0.........0...........12/29/93.....27...15.....0.24"....3.7"..........12/18/95.....39...30........0.........0........12/28/00...27...19........0.........0 12/26/83.....19.....8........0.........0...........12/30/93.....27...20.....0.02"....0.3"..........12/19/95.....33...22.....0.68"....5.5".....12/29/00...30...17........0.........0 12/27/83.....29...16........0.........0...........12/31/93.....33...17........0.........0.............12/20/95.....23...18.....0.12"....2.2".....12/30/00...31...24....0.92"..12.0" ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ dates.........max min.. precip snow...........dates.........max min precip...snow.............dates........max min precip...snow........dates.....max min precip...snow 12/01/02.....41...29........T.........T............12/01/03.....51...35........0.........0............12/04/05.....34...28.....0.32"....2.5".......12/16/08...58...30....0.28"....1.0 12/02/02.....39...29........0.........0...........12/02/03.....36...23........T..........0............12/05/05.....35...31........T.........T..........12/17/08...42...32....0.42".....0 12/03/02.....37...19........T.........T............12/03/03.....31...21........0.........0............12/06/05.....37...29.....0.07"....1.0".......12/18/08...42...36......0........0 12/04/02.....32...20........0.........0...........12/04/03.....41...26........0.........0............12/07/05.....32...26........0.........0..........12/19/08...37...29....0.93"....4.0" 12/05/02.....31...26.....0.35"....6.0"........12/05/03.....37...25.....0.53"....8.0"..........12/08/05.....38...29........0.........0..........12/20/08...31...22....0.04"....0.5" 12/06/02.....35...28........0.........0...........12/06/03.....28...23.....0.40"....6.0"..........12/09/05.....36...27.....0.74"....5.8".......12/21/08...37...25....0.58"....0.2" 12/07/02.....36...25........0.........0...........12/07/03.....29...22........0.........0............12/10/05.....39...31........0.........0..........12/22/08...27...15.......0........0 12/08/02.....45...30........0.........0...........12/08/03.....37...23........0.........0............12/11/05.....37...24........0.........0..........12/23/08...31...18.......0........0 12/09/02.....30...19........0.........0...........12/09/03.....38...30........0.........0............12/12/05.....26...17........0.........0..........12/24/08...58...31....0.46".....T 12/10/02.....36...25........0.........0...........12/10/03.....52...36........0.........0............12/13/05.....24...14........0.........0..........12/25/08...57...33....0.13".....0 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12/16/09.....42...28........0.........0...........12/21/10.....38...28........0.........0............12/08/13.....33...29.....0.08"....0.7"........12/08/17...39...34.......0........0 12/17/09.....31...20........0.........0...........12/22/10.....38...28........0.........0............12/09/13.....39...31.....0.30"......T..........12/09/17...35...30....0.46"....4.6" 12/18/09.....30...16........0.........0...........12/23/10.....35...30........0.........0............12/10/13.....37...30.....0.23"....1.4"........12/10/17...39...29.......0........0 12/19/09.....30...21.....0.61"....9.1"........12/24/10.....40...29........0.........0............12/11/13.....33...27........0.........0...........12/11/17...41...33.......0........0 12/20/09.....34...21.....0.13"....1.8"........12/25/10.....32...25........0.........0............12/12/13.....30...23........0.........0...........12/12/17...50...29.......T........T 12/21/09.....36...28........0.........0...........12/26/10.....30...21.....1.09"..12.2".........12/13/13.....35...23........0.........0...........12/13/17...31...20.......T........T 12/22/09.....36...23........0.........0...........12/27/10.....28...20.....0.52"....7.8".........12/14/13.....34...22.....0.73"....5.0"........12/14/17...32...22....0.09"....1.2" 12/23/09.....30...20........0.........0...........12/28/10.....38...24........0.........0............12/15/13.....40...30.....0.72".....0...........12/15/17...28...20....0.11"....1.2" 12/24/09.....39...24........0.........0...........12/29/10.....37...31........0.........0............12/16/13.....33...25........0........0...........12/16/17...39...23.......0........0 12/25/09.....38...33.....0.24"......0...........12/30/10.....40...28........0.........0............12/17/13.....32...24.....0.19"....1.5".......12/17/17...38...32.......0........0

Three great winters had heavy rains around this time of the month...1947, 1963, 1977...1977 had 9" in two days. ..one bad winter with a deluge during the same period is 1972...

Except for 1972-73 and 1997-98 NYC had a much better winter after two or more la Nina or weak negative years...2014-15 was a second straight great winter and was better than the previous winter in Boston... 1952-53 1957-58 1963-64 1968-69 1976-77 1986-87 2002-03 2009-10 2014-15

Oct 2010 was +0.3 if we compare the actual numbers for Central park from 1981-2010...

the average temperature for October 2018 in NYC is 57.8 as of yesterday...there is a chance the average drops to 57.7 after today...counting 2018 the last 90 Octobers averaged 57.8

after today October temperature is averaging 58.8 in Central Park...the max so far this month is 80 and the min is 38...rainfall was 3.36" the last I looked...no snow recorded so far... October... decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall 1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6...........................................3.55" 1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17" 1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59" 1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39" 1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41" 1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39" 1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22" 1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42" 1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68" 1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45" 1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88" 1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01" 1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85" 2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23" 2010's.....59.2.......64.1....57.1......80.8...38.8......86...33......4.04" 2018.......58.8...............................80.0...38.0......80...48......3.36" as of 10/27 1870--- 2009.......56.8................................80.0...36.8........................3.66" 1980--- 2009.......57.2................................78.9...38.0........................4.36" Warmest... 64.1 in 2017 63.6 in 1947 63.6 in 2007 63.1 in 1949 62.7 in 1971 61.9 in 1990 Coolest... 48.6 in 1888 49.7 in 1889 50.6 in 1925 50.6 in 1876 50.9 in 1869 wettest"... 16.73 in 2005 13.31 in 1903 12.97 in 1913 09.00 in 1927 08.63 in 1983 driest... 0.14 in 1963 0.28 in 1924 0.36 in 2013 0.43 in 1879 0.59 in 1892 0.66 in 2001 0.66 in 1909 Snowiest"... 2.9 in 2011 0.8 in 1925 0.5 in 1876 0.5 in 1952 Hottest max.. 94 in 1941 10/5 91 in 1939 10/10 90 in 1927 10/2 90 in 1941 10/6 90 in 1938 10/17 89 in 1922 10/5 Coolest monthly max... 66 in 1888 70 in 1894 70 in 1895 70 in 1977 71 in 1981 Coldest min... 28 in 1936 10/27 29 in 1879 10/25 29 in 1976 10/27 29 in 1976 10/28 29 in 1925 10/31 29 in 1887 10/31 warmest monthly min... 45 in 1946 45 in 1971 44 in 2004 43 in 1994 43 in 1927 Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower... 1876...32 1879...29 1877...29 1889...32 1904...32 1917...32 1925...29 1928...32 1933...32 1936...28 1940...30 1965...32 1969...31 1972...32 1974...31 1975...31 1976...29 1988...31

the ao and nao going negative now and the analogs I think are relative to this year...

today was the first day that the ao and nao were negative together in months...forecasts are for them to get more negative before it relaxes...and then comes back...subject to change on a daily basis...timing looks good to me and I think December will be a negative ao month at least....