uncle W

the ao/nao are negative together for the first time in months...temps are cool and a storm is lurking...this is what we need in January...

El nino Decembers...negative ao/nao Decembers...Positive ao/nao Decembers...

the ao and nao better be negative in December or the odds for a cold snowy December will be slim... the chart below is ave temp and above ave snowfall in blue...black is near ave...negative ao and nao in blue...positive ao/nao in red...the nao and ao were negative for the coldest nine Decembers...six of the nine had above average snowfall...the bottom twelve were all above average in temps and below average in snowfall...only 1987 had a neg ao but positive nao...1957 had above average snowfall despite having a positive ao nao...the snow came early in Dec. 1957 after a negative ao November... year.....ave temp...snowfall.....ao.....nao 1958.......29.4.........3.8".......-1.687.......-0.70 1976.......29.9.........5.1".......-2.074.......-1.60 1963.......31.2.......11.3".......-1.178.......-1.92 1969.......33.4.........6.8".......-1.856.......-0.28 1968.......34.3.........7.0".......-0.783.......-1.40 1977.......35.7.........0.4".......-0.240.......-1.00 2009.......35.9.......12.4".......-3.413.......-1.93 2002.......36.0.......11.0".......-1.592.......-0.94 1997.......38.3..........T..........-0.071.......-0.96 2004.......38.4........3.0"......+1.230.......+1.21 1972.......38.5..........T........+1.238.......+0.19 1986.......39.0........0.6"......+0.060.......+0.99 1987.......39.5........2.6".......-0.534.......+0.32 1991.......39.6........0.7"......+1.613.......+0.46 1957.......40.2........8.7"......+0.828.......+0.12 2014.......40.5........1.0"......+0.413.......+1.86 1965.......40.5..........T........+0.163.......+1.37 1979.......41.1........3.5"......+1.295.......+1.00 1994.......42.2..........T........+0.894.......+2.02 1982.......42.8........3.0"......+0.967.......+1.78 2006.......43.6..........0........+2.282.......+1.34 2015.......50.8..........T........+1.444........+2.24

for now these are my weighted analogs...1957-58 came during a high Sun spot period...QBO was slightly positive around January all three years after a very negative previous year...the ao and nao are predicted to go negative to set the stage for the up coming winter...like last year I expect to see the heaviest snows when the AO goes negative...

the early 60's were so innocent...

another great group...things you can't say anymore...50 years after...

1968 was a great year for music...

there's one from the winter of 68-69...a great song... https://www.musicradio77.com/wmca/surveys/1969/surveyjan169.html

latest MEI number was +0.506...big rise from lasts months value... using the MEI scale there were five years when the MEI peaked in the Dec/Jan period...All very good mid Atlantic and or north east winters...most models have the el nino peak during the winter and having the MEI peak in the Dec/Jan period has been good in the past...1978-79 and 1993-94 were not el nino years but weak positive mei years peaking in DEC/JAN... season..........D/J mei.....DJF oni 1957-58......+1.474.......+1.8 2002-03......+1.180.......+1.1 1963-64......+0.856.......+1.1 1978-79......+0.598........-0.1 1993-94......+0.334.......+0.1

the first seven years on that list had good to great winters...

look at some of the great winters when the spot cycle is near the low point...some epic winters in there... 1933-34...very cold and snowy in the east...big snows in the east... 1944-45...very cold... 1955-56...very cold start and ending...big March snows in the east... 1963-64...great winter in the east...east coast blizzard... 1977-78...epic winter in the east...east coast blizzard... 1986-87...big snows in DC... 1995-96...big snows everywhere 2009-10...big snows galore in the east... only 1944-45 did not have a major storm in the northeast... 1957-58 came during a peak Sun spot period...57-58 belongs with the years mentioned above...some really snowless east coast winters during the high peaks...

I missed the rain by a few blocks...I must have gotten a few sprinkles...

the first 15 days in October 1954 had 8 days in the 80's...but between heat spells there was briefly record cold in the upper 30's...That's something we don't see any more...Hurricane Hazel also came in October 54...

I forgot 2002-03...92-93 wasn't great in the city but it did break a 10 year 10" snowfall drought in NYC...

hall of fame winters...my votes... 1947-48 1957-58 1960-61 1963-64 1966-67 1977-78 1993-94 1995-96 2009-10 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15

there aren't to many winters with over 40" of snow...some areas got 60"...even February as warm as it was managed to have a 4" snowfall...late December and January had a two week period below freezing with a coastal snowstorm...March produced over 20" on Staten Island...

there were mild Octobers before some great winters with a variety of enos's...there have been great winters after a cold October and vise versa... 1947... 1963... 1995... last year...

Newark NJ snow depth days... 1977-78 had 90 days with some snow on the ground or in the air at some point during the day...2011-12 had only 15 such days...1993-94 had 69 days in a row with a trace or more...1947-48 has the most 1" days and consecutive 1" days...it also has the most 4" days...2014-15 has the most consecutive 4" days...1960-61 had the most 10" days...2010-11 has the most consecutive 10" days...1995-96 has the most 20" days and consecutive days...it has the deepest depth at 31"...1972-73 has the smallest depth at only 1"... ........................total days.........................consecutive days.... winter..........T.....1".....4"...10"...20"................T.....1".....4"...10"...20"...max depth... 1946-47....55....37....13......2.....0................20....14.....7.....2.....0.......11" 1947-48....80....62....50....15.....2................65....57...29.....8.....2.......25" 1948-49....44....27......9......3.....0................11....11.....4.....2.....0.......13" 1949-50....45......8......0......0.....0.................3......3......0.....0.....0........3" 1950-51....43....12......0......0.....0...............13......5......0.....0.....0........3" 1951-52....45....14......3......0.....0.................9......6......1.....0.....0........4" 1952-53....30....11......2......0.....0.................4......4......1.....0.....0........4" 1953-54....37....14......9......0.....0...............18....12......7.....0.....0........8" 1954-55....39....18......1......0.....0.................6......6......1.....0.....0........4" 1955-56....53....20......7......3.....0...............10......9......7.....3.....0.......18" 1956-57....51....18......5......0.....0.................7......6......3.....0.....0........7" 1957-58....61....39....19......5.....0...............15....11......8.....2.....0.......13" 1958-59....49....22......2......0.....0...............11......9......1.....0.....0........5" 1959-60....64....32....11......4.....0...............16....11......9.....4.....0.......14" 1960-61....89....60....40....24.....3...............36....36....29...11.....3.......25" 1961-62....61....32......6......1.....0...............15....13......5.....1.....0.......10" 1962-63....65....26......8......0.....0...............17....12......8.....0.....0........6" 1963-64....80....47....14......4.....0...............26....17......7.....4.....0.......13" 1964-65....60....39......9......0.....0...............29....28......5.....0.....0........8" 1965-66....40....24......9......0.....0...............23....19......8.....0.....0........7" 1966-67....66....42....21......5.....0...............16....10....10.....5.....0.......14" 1967-68....52....20......6......0.....0...............19....15......6.....0.....0........3" 1968-69....58....31....13......4.....0...............20....20....13.....4.....0.......14" 1969-70....81....49....24......0.....0...............46....36....11.....0.....0........6" 1970-71....69....27......6......0.....0...............22......9......4.....0.....0........7" 1971-72....58....23......2......0.....0...............12......6......2.....0.....0........4" 1972-73....26......2......0......0.....0.................5......1......0.....0.....0........1" 1973-74....52....31......8......0.....0...............19.....11.....5.....0.....0........5" 1974-75....43....13......4......0.....0...............13.......6.....4.....0.....0........9" 1975-76....46....26......7......0.....0...............10.......9.....4.....0.....0........4" 1976-77....70....42....13......0.....0...............51....17......7.....0.....0........5" 1977-78....90....49....30....13.....0...............67....33....16.....8.....0.......19" 1978-79....46....25....13......3.....0...............22....18....12.....3.....0.......19" 1979-80....42....15......5......0.....0.................7......4......3.....0.....0........5" 1980-81....55....29......4......0.....0...............20....17......3.....0.....0........8" 1981-82....63....29....21......2.....0...............24....19....18.....2.....0.......13" 1982-83....41....24....12......4.....0...............17....14....11.....4.....0.......19" 1983-84....60....29....14......0.....0...............24....18......8.....0.....0........8" 1984-85....50....27......8......0.....0...............28....13......7.....0.....0........6" 1985-86....50....23....11......0.....0...............13....12....11.....0.....0........7" 1986-87....52....22....11......8.....0...............20....18....12.....8.....0.......14" 1987-88....53....33....11......0.....0...............17....16....10.....0.....0........9" 1988-89....30......7......2......0.....0.................5......4......2.....0.....0........4" 1989-90....44....12......2......0.....0.................6......3......2.....0.....0........6" 1990-91....39....17......3......0.....0.................9......6......2.....0.....0........8" 1991-92....39....11......5......0.....0...............10......7......5.....0.....0........7" 1992-93....52....23....10......4.....0...............11....10......8.....4.....0.......13" 1993-94....82....55....24......9.....0...............69....14....13.....8.....0.......18" 1994-95....33......9......7......0.....0...............15......8......7.....0.....0........9" 1995-96....87....60....32......9.....5...............31....31....13.....8.....5.......31" 1996-97....44....11......1......0.....0.................5......2......1.....0.....0........4" 1997-98....31......3......0......0.....0.................3......1......0.....0.....0........3" 1998-99....31....11......1......0.....0.................4......2......1.....0.....0........5" 1999-00....37....24......8......0.....0...............22....16......4.....0.....0........7" 2000-01....48....30....20......3.....0...............18....16....13.....3.....0.......14" 2001-02....18......4......0......0.....0.................4......4......0.....0.....0........3" 2002-03....70....44....16......6.....2...............24....23......8.....6.....2.......23" 2003-04....47....34....21......3.....0...............27....22......8.....3.....0.......14" 2004-05....55....38....19......3.....0...............16....15....15.....3.....0.......13" 2005-06....38....23....10......3.....1...............13......7......6.....3.....1.......21" 2006-07....38....22......3......0.....0.................9......7......3.....0.....0........4" 2007-08....31....11......2......0.....0.................6......4......2.....0.....0........7" 2008-09....47....32......5......0.....0.................6......6......3.....0.....0........7" 2009-10....41....28....21......4.....0...............12....11....10.....2.....0.......12" 2010-11....68....54....37....18.....4...............51....39....21...12.....2.......24" 2011-12....15......5......1......0.....0.................3......3......1.....0.....0........5" 2012-13....42....16......7......1.....0.................7......5......4.....1.....0.......10" 2013-14....67....47....32....12.....0...............38....22....21.....9.....0.......18" 2014-15....71....53....44......0.....0...............48....45....42.....0.....0........8" 2015-16....37....18....10......6.....2...............16....11....10.....6.....2.......24" 2016-17....47....25......9......0.....0...............11......7......4.....0.....0........8" 2017-18....53....28....12......0.....0.................8......8......6.....0.....0........8"

1936 east coast hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52701203/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52701232

1.20 today..

thanks...it's probably not the only one...But I try...

next week Florence will be effecting us...How much rain will we get?...will it make this list?... rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane... date.................amount........ Sept 1882.......10.63" Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria Sept 1938.........5.74" Sept 1934.........5.48" Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd June 2013.........4.77" Andrea Aug 1879..........4.59" Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle Oct 1877...........4.07" Aug 1893..........3.94" Sept 1904.........3.85" Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria July 1960...........3.56" Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

sometimes the mei lags or is a head of the game...in the 1960's we had a few weak la nina mei years with a neutral oni... 1961-62 and 1962-63 had a DJF oni of -0.2 and -0.4...mei was near moderate la nina territory both years...1992-93 had a DJF oni of +0.1...mei was in el nino territory...the JMA has its own enso measuring technique...I look at all three when analyzing enso. ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

a look back at the 1896 storm... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50460383/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1896-09-11/ed-1/seq-14/

it rose to 63 the past hour...so much for the record again...