uncle W

I can't imagine a pattern worse than what we have now?...

I'm not just counting the weather...

I'm at 1400ft...a different world up here...

we picked up a half inch up here in Wild Acres PA...still cloudy...

1882-83 had 14" in November and none in December...then about 30" the rest of the winter...

January snowfalls 6" or more in Central Park...... 27.5" 1/22-23/2016 20.2" 1/07-08/1996 19.0" 1/25-26/2011 13.8" 1/22-23/2005 13.6" 1/19-20/1978 13.0" 1/01-02/1877 13.0" 1/15-16/1879 13.0" 1/23-24/1935 12.5" 1/12-13/1964 11.5" 1/02/1925 11.5" 1/21-22/2014 11.0" 1/24-25/1905 10.3" 1/24/2004 10.0" 1/27-28/1897 10.0" 1/23-24/1908 10.0" 1/14-15/1910 9.9" 1/19-20/1961 9.8" 1/26-27/2015 9.8" 1/04/2018 9.1" 1/11-12/2011 9.0" 1/01/1869 9.0" 1/26-27/1871 9.0" 1/03-04/1923 9.0" 1/19/1936 8.8" 1/13-14/1939 8.6" 1/10-12/1954 8.1" 1/22/1987 8.0" 1/03/1882 8.0" 1/25/1891 8.0" 1/02-03/1904 7.8" 1/14/1923 7.0" 1/20/1925 7.0" 1/03-04/1905 6.8" 1/29-30/1966 6.7" 1/15-16/1945 6.5" 1/14/1874 6.5" 1/26-27/1894 6.5" 1/28-29/1922 6.4" 1/01/1971 6.4" 1/2-3/2014 6.3" 1/10/1965 6.0" 1/19/1869 6.0" 1/22/1873 6.0" 1/15/1892 6.0" 1/05-06/1893 6.0" 1/17/19/1907 6.0" 1/21/2001

with over 63" of precipitation for 2018 NYC is averaging over 50" 1970...before that the average was 42" from 1869-1969...driest ten years were from 1956-1965...wettest ten years was from 2002-2011... NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870. 10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year 1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26" 1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16" 1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26" 1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32" 1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00" 1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06" 1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53" 1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51" 1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20" 1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54" 1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03" 1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56" 1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92" 2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70" 2010's..............50.26"........38.51".......72.81" as of 12/26/18 1956-1965........36.87"........26.09".......46.39" 2002-2011........56.27"........45.21".......72.81" 1870- 2009................45.14" 1980- 2009................50.14" 1870- 1969................42.92" 1970- 2009................50.64"

1976-77 had 45 days with a max 32 or lower...the next year had 42 days...2013-14 has the most since 1978 with 33 days...2018-19 has two so far thanks to a cold spell in November... 1880-81.....52...........................................2 in 1952-53 1903-04.....47...........................................3 in 1997-98 1976-77...45..........................................3 in 2001-02 1917-18.....45...........................................5 in 1931-32 1887-88.....44...........................................6 in 2007-08 1977-78.....42...........................................6 in 2011-12 1876-77.....41...........................................7 in 1990-91 1892-93.....41...........................................7 in 1992-93 1919-20.....40...........................................7 in 1918-19 1904-05.....40...........................................8 in 1974-75

El nino February's in NYC...23 years...eight above average temperatures...15 below average temps......ten above average snowfall...two near average...eleven below average snowfall...six years with a snowstorm 10" or more...eight that had below average temperatures and above average snowfall... year.....average temperature...snowfall...major snowfalls ... 1952...………...36.2...………………...2.8"...…………... 1958...………...27.4...……………….10.7"...…………...7.9" 1959...………...32.1...………………...0.4" 1964...………...32.9...……………….14.1"...…………...6.8" 1966...………...35.1...………………...9.8"...…………...6.3" 1969...………...32.6...……………….16.6"....………...15.3" 1970...………...33.0...………………...6.4" 1973...………...32.5...………………...0.8" 1977...………...33.5...………………...5.8" 1978...………...27.2...……………….23.0".........…….17.7" 1980...………...31.4...………………...2.7" 1983...………...36.4...……………….21.5".........…….17.6" 1987...…………33.2...………………...7.0" 1988...………...35.0...………………...1.5" 1992...………...36.4...………………...1.0" 1995...………...31.6...……………….11.6"...…………..10.8" 1998...………...40.6...………………….0 2003...………...30.1...……………….26.1"...…………..19.8" 2005...………...36.5...……………….15.8"...…………….7.7".....6.0" 2007...………...28.2...………………...3.8" 2010...………...33.1...……………….36.9"...…………..10.0"....20.9" 2015...………...23.9...……………….13.6" 2016...………...37.7...………………...4.0"

there were many good busts back in the 1960's and 70's...there were also many bad busts...one of the worst was in early January 1970...As soon as I heard there was a heavy snow warning Dim Sun appeared and the snow stopped...

that evening when the snow was falling I was watching Alan Kasper and he was concerned the snow rain line was moving south so he upped his totals to 8" when everyone else was 3" over to rain...it ended up 14" ending as a mix...my best busts are March 3rd 1960 and February 9th 1969...

if I had money I would have invested in oil when it went below 30 dollars I was so sure it would rise again...I would have tripled my money...If it goes into the 30's buy...

1947... http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?141114 http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?142010 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878037/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878066/ 1872 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791 1890 from the Evening World... http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/ 1933 https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/57565868/

some el nino years that had most of its snow after January 15th... season...Jan 15th...After...total 1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4" 1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2" 1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8" 1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7" 1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8" 1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2" 1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1" 1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6" 1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8" 1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5" 2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0" 2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4" 2014-15........3.2"......47.4"......50.4" 2015-16...…..0.2"......32.6"......32.8" 2018-19...…..6.4"

1883 has to be the coldest snowiest pre Christmas on record... day...max...min precip snowfall 19.....37.....22.....0.60".....4.5" est...http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 20.....24.....21........0 21.....29.....21.....0.35".....3.5" est...http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-22/ed-1/seq-5/ 22.....25.....10........0 23.....10......-1.....0.01".....0.1" started late on the 23rd... 24.....31.......7.....0.80".....7.4" ended during the day...est. snow cover at midnight...10-12"... 25.....31.....28.....0.38".....5.0" snowed 3pm to midnight... 26.....35.....25........0 27.....48.....30.....0.41 1883... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-24/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-24/ed-1/seq-5/ 1883 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-25/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-25/ed-1/seq-2/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399969 1883 snowfall from the Brooklyn Eagle... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399973/ 1883 snowfall in the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1883-12-26/ed-1/seq-1/

since 2000 Christmas week has seen its share of mild days with no chance of snow...it's possible this year could have a 60 degree temperature Christmas week and snow on Christmas eve... 2000.....cold last ten days of December...light snow before Christmas...heavy snow before New Years day... 2001.....51 degrees on 12/24... 2002.....snow Christmas afternoon... 2003.....56 degrees on 12/24... 2004.....59 on 12/23... 2005.....54 0n 12/25...55 on 12/24... 2006.....59 on 12/23... 2007.....61 on 12/23... 2008.....58 on 12/24...57 on 12/25...65 on 12/28... 2009.....54 on 12/26...2" on the ground Christmas morning from 12/20 11" snowfall... 2010.....heavy snow 12/26-27... 2011.....62 12/21...57 12/27... 2012.....rain and snow 12/24... 2013.....65 12/21...71 12/22...64 12/23... 2014.....62 12/25... 2015.....62 12/22...64 12/23...72 12/24...66 12/25...59 12/26...61 12/27... 2016.....50 12/25...60 12/27... 2017.....51 12/20...50 12/22 2018.....61 12/21

10/14/1954 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/54529018/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/54529159/ 1954... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/54528946/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/54528957

in case Christmas is warm here are the other mild Christmas days... year...max/min 1889....64 43 snowy March... 1893....58 45 Snowy February... 1900....59 44 1915....55 38 snowy March... 1932....59 47 snowy February... 1933....55 34 snowy cold February 1936....56 40 1940....62 38 snowy March... 1964....60 49 snowy January... 1965....59 47 snowy January... 1979....61 50 March snowfall... 1982....64 41 big Feb snowstorm... 1986....53 43 snowy January... 1987....53 48 snowy January... 1988....53 37 1994....59 41 Feb snowstorm... 2005....54 39 Feb Snowstorm... 2008....57 33 March snowstorm... 2014....62 44 50" snow season... 2015....66 57 big January snow... 2016....50 36 Feb snowstorm...

there have been some snowy February's during an el nino...some years really started the end of January...some el nino years had one good month and it usually was the end of January to the end of February...Feb 66, 83 and 2016 had above average temperatures...the rest were below average... winter...…..Feb Temp......snow...….6" plus snows...... 1925-26...…….29.2...…….26.3"...…….10.4"...12.0"...Feb... 1940-41...…….31.1...……...5.4"...…….18.1" in March... 1957-58...…….27.4...…….10.7"...…….7.9"...Feb...…….11.8" in March... 1963-64...…….32.9...…….14.1"...…….6.8"...Feb 1965-66...…….35.1...……...9.8"...…….6.3"...Feb...……...6.8" the end of January... 1982-83...…….36.4...…….21.5"...…….17.6"...Feb... 1986-87...…….33.2...……...7.0"...…….8.1" the end of January... 1994-95...…….31.6...…….11.6"...…….10.8"...Feb... 2002-03...…….30.1...…….26.1"...…….19.8"...Feb... 2009-10...…….33.1...…….36.9"...…….10.0"...20.9"...Feb... 2014-15...…….23.9...…….13.6"...…….9.8" the end of January... 2015-16...…….37.7...……...4.0"...…….27.5" the end of January...

there have been winters that were similar but had different enso...1999-00 had sensible weather like 1965-66...1995-96 had sensible weather similar to 1963-64...

1973 missed by a week of having an icy Christmas...Christmas 1964 will always stand out with the 60 degree temperatures after five straight White Christmas's...69 degrees at Newark...there was snow on the 20th that melted in the fog Christmas eve...in 1979 NYC set the warmest minimum for Christmas...1980 set the coldest minimum...1982 set the warmest max...1983 set the coldest max...

today is the 8th straight day with a minimum 32 or lower...the streak should reach 10 days...not bad for the beginning of December...

although that storm did produce in the end it was depressing to see it raining hard Christmas morning...

go here... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

I was 17 in 1966 and it was a very good year...now I'm in the Autumn of the year...Frank Sinatra from 1966...that storm changed to sleet in the afternoon that kept accumulations down...