uncle W

fewest days with at least one inch on the ground or accumulated that day...1/2 inch is rounded up to one inch... 2018-19.....6 so far... 2011-12.....5 1997-98.....2 2001-02.....3 1972-73.....3

I hope this storm turns out as good as Feb. 21, 1993...4" of snow before it ended as rain...

it did at the end of January for two days...one day in Feb... https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-5B1B69F4-34BE-4F57-9CB0-2DBAA86806B1.pdf

snow depth on February 20th for Central Park since 1958...maybe 2019 will make this list... 1979...16" 2014...15" 2003...12" 2015.....9" 1994.....7" 1964.....6" 1969.....6" 1958.....5" 1978.....5" 2010.....4" 1983.....3" 1963.....2" 1972.....2" 1977.....2" 1996.....2" 1962.....1" 1967.....1" 2000.....1"

1900-01 should be 9.1"...50-51... 11"... https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

NYC needs 1.3" to reach 10" for the season...not the great winter I was expecting...I guess we were due for a clunker...the winter has some similarities with the 1936-37 winter...that winter ended up with 16" for the season...

from 1956-1960 March was the snowiest month and had the biggest snowfalls...the only year that had below average snowfall in March was 1957 and it had an April snowfall...

snow lovers have been spoiled since 1994...some great winters since then...1993-94...1995-96...2002-03...2009-10...2010-11...2013-14...2014-15...the two biggest snowstorms came in different years...both topped 1947...the 1980's and 1880's had one each...both epic storms...the blizzard of 1888 looks like it was under measured when you look at some of the pictures...

here is NYC 10" snowfalls...JFK you can get from this site... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94789&_target2=Next+> snowfalls 10" or greater...... Year....date....amount"... 1872...12/26.......18.0" 1874...12/20.......10.0" 1875...4/13.........10.0" 1876...2/3-4........11.0" 1877...1/1-2........13.0" 1879...1/15-16....13.0" 1888...3/12-14....21.0" 1896...3/2...........10.0" 1896...3/15-16....12.0" 1897...1/27-28....10.0" 1898...11/26-27..10.0" 1899...2/12-14....16.0" 1902...2/17..........10.0" 1905...1/24-25.....11.0" 1907...2/4-5.........11.0" 1908...1/23-24.....10.0" 1910...1/14-15.....10.0" 1912...12/24........11.4" 1914...3/1-2.........14.5" 1915...4/3-4.........10.2" 1916...12/15........12.7" 1920...2/4-7.........17.5" 1921...2/20..........12.5" 1925...1/2............11.5" 1926...2/3-4.........10.4" 1926...2/9-10.......12.0" 1933...2/11..........10.0" 1933...12/26........11.2" 1935...1/23-24.....13.0" 1941...3/7-8.........18.1"...ended as a mix... 1947...2/20-21.....10.7" 1947...12/26-27...26.4" 1948...12/19-20...16.0" 1956...3/18-19.....11.6" 1958...3/19-20.....11.8"...some rain was mixed.. 1959...12/21-22...13.7" 1960...3/3-4.........14.5" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 1961...2/3-4.........17.4" 1964...1/12-13.....12.5" 1967...2/7............12.5" 1969...2/9-10.......15.3" 1978...1/19-20.....13.6"...ended as ice... 1978...2/6-7.........17.7" 1979...2/19..........12.7" 1983...2/11-12.....17.6" 1993...3/13-14.....10.6"...changed to sleet and rain...ended with a dusting... 1994...2/11..........12.8" 1995...2/4............10.8"...ended as rain... 1996...1/7-8.........20.2" 1996...2/16-17.....10.7" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...2/16-17.....19.8" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2004...1/28..........10.4" 2005...1/22-23.....13.8" 2006...2/11-12.....26.9" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...2/9-10.......10.0" 2010...2/25-26.....20.9"...changed to rain for a time... 2010...12/26-27...20.0" 2011...1/25-26.....19.0" 2013...2/8-9.........11.4" 2014...1/21..........11.5" 2014...2/13-14.....12.5"...(9.5" or snow changed to heavy rain and ended as 3" of snow)... 2016...1/22-23.....27.5"* biggest of all time...

is it shut down for the rest of the season or a long term trend like we saw in the 1980's?...

1972-73 revisited...

when growing up my favorite story my family told me was the big snow of 1947...The next year in Dec. 1948 there was another storm that was 19.3" at Battery Place...I was in my mothers belly and she fell in the snow and someone saw her and helped her get home...That's another story I was told while growing up in Brooklyn...my first big storm was the March 56 snowstorm...

I was born at the beginning of a six year snow drought in 1949...The periods of 1969-70 to 1976-77 (Eight Years) had no major storms...the best chances changed to rain or were to far south and east of us...biggest storm in this period was 7.8" in Feb. 1975...only eleven 4" storms in that period...from the 1983-84 season to the 1991-92 season ( nine years ) had no major storms...biggest storm in this period was 8.9" in Feb. 1991...it was a bullseye storm...nineteen 4" storm in that period...2013-14 and 2015-16 had six each for comparison...edit...1929-30 to 1931-32 had no storms 4" or more...

February decade snowfall average for NYC plus snowstorms 10" or more... year...…...ave.….10"+ snowfalls 1870's.....9.3".....11.0"... 1880's.....7.9".....none 1890's...10.1".....16.0" 1900's.....9.3".....10.0"...11.0" 1910's.....7.5".....none 1920's...12.2".....17.5"...12.5"...10.4"...12.0" 1930's.....7.6".....10.0" 1940's.....8.9".....10.7" 1950's.....4.0".....none 1960's...10.1".....17.4"...12.5"...15.3" 1970's.....9.9".....17.7"...12.7" 1980's.....5.4".....17.6" 1990's.....8.7".....12.8"...10.8"...10.7" 2000's...10.1".....19.8"...26.9" 2010's...12.5".....10.0"...20.9"...11.4"...12.5"

the last 30 days averaged 30.8 in Central Park...the average coldest 30 day period is 29.0 since 1930...probably the coldest 30 day period of the winter...last year the city had 30 days that averaged 27.1 from Dec into Jan...2015 had one averaging 23.9...1977 has the lowest in recent times at 21.9...1997-98 has the highest at 37.3...2016-17 had one at 36.4...

1995-96 went a head of 2011 on Feb. 16th...2011 had 57.2" but 1996 went a head with 60.9"

there have been nine winters that produced less than 10" of seasonal snowfall since 1868-69...1996-97 had exactly 10"...I lived through five of these winters...here they are by the numbers... season.....snowfall...1" snowfalls... 1972-73........2.8"........1.8" 2001-02........3.5"........3.0" 1918-19........3.8"........1.3" 1.4" 1931-32........5.3"........2.0" 1.1" 1997-98........5.5"........5.0" 2011-12........7.4"........4.3" 2.9" 1877-78........8.1"........8.0" 1988-89........8.1"........5.0" 2.6" 1900-01........9.1"........1.8" 4.0" 1.5" ....................................................... season.....ave temp/relative to decade coldest temp... 1972-73........35.8........33.7....................7 2001-02........41.5........35.2....................19 1918-19........36.6........32.0....................10 1931-32........40.1........34.0....................15 1997-98........39.6........36.4....................14 2011-12........40.5........36.6....................13 1877-78........33.3........31.5....................7 1988-89........35.9........34.9....................5 1900-01........31.7........32.0....................4 ................................................................ season.....precipitation ... 1972-73........15.17" 2001-02..........4.91" 1918-19........10.96" 1931-32..........9.59" 1997-98........15.28" 2011-12..........8.60" 1877-78..........8.89" 1988-89..........6.45" 1900-01..........4.22" .............................................................................. 1972-73 had the least amount of snowfall with above average precipitation...Mild/wet... 2001-02 was second with very little precipitation...It was the warmest winter on record...Mild/dry... 1918-19 was third withy two 1" March snowfalls...precipitation was slightly below...Mild... 1931-32 was fourth and was the second warmest ever...2" snow in November...Mild/dry... 1997-98 was wet and mild...5" March snowfall...wettest of them all...Mild/wet 2011-12 similar to 2001-02 but with an October snowstorm... 1877-78 had one snowstorm...was milder than the 1870's average...Dry as well...Mild/dry 1988-89 had two snowfalls over 2"...was very dry...was milder than the 1980's average...mild/dry... 1900-01 had three 1" snowfalls...was colder than the 1900's average...was the driest...cold/

NYC average temperature for January 2019 was 32.5...the 2010's decade averaged 32.8...since 1990 the average is 33.6...1960 to 1989 averaged 31.2...the long term average is 32.0 since 1870...the 2019 January max min was 59 and 2...the average max since 1990 is 60.3...the long term is 57.2...the average minimum is 8.0 since 1870 and 9.9 since 1990....precipitation was 3.58" in 2019...the average since 1870 is 3.45"...3.75" since 1990...snowfall averaged 12.7" for the 2010's...only 1.1" in 2019...the average since 1870 is 7.8"...8.7" since 1990... January NYC climate stats from Central Park...since 1870... Decade averages... decade...ave...high...low...ave/ max min max...min...snowfall...precipitation 1870's...30.3...37.5...23.8.........................68...-4......9.6"......3.29" 1880's...28.7...39.6...24.7......53.5.....4.3...65...-6......9.1"......4.12" 1890's...31.7...37.6...23.7......55.0.....9.0...64...-2......8.6"......3.46" 1900's...32.1...38.4...25.3......55.2.....7.5...64...-1......8.1"......3.07" 1910's...32.4...40.9...21.7......57.1.....6.6...69...-5......5.1"......3.77" 1920's...30.5...34.0...23.4......53.9.....4.6...62...-2......8.9"......3.52" 1930's...34.7...43.2...28.9......59.9.....9.7...70...-3......6.4"......3.98" 1940's...31.0...38.6...25.0......56.2.....7.6...63....0......7.7"......3.20" 1950's...33.7...41.4...28.5......58.7...10.8...72....0......5.0"......2.75" 1960's...31.8...37.4...26.7......55.4.....8.6...68...-1......7.1"......2.37" 1970's...30.6...37.3...22.1......57.5.....6.0...66...-2......8.0"......4.57" 1980's...31.3...37.4...26.1......57.4.....6.8...63...-2......7.9"......3.26" 1990's...34.8...41.4...25.6......60.9...11.2...66...-2......6.1"......4.47" 2000's...33.1...40.9...24.7......60.8.....9.8...72....1......7.2"......3.19" 2010's...32.8...38.0...28.6......59.2.....8.7...66....2....12.9"......3.60".....2010-2019... 1870- 2019.....32.0...43.2...21.7…..57.2.....8.0...72...-6......7.8"......3.45" 1990- 2019.....33.6...41.4...24.7......60.3.....9.9...72...-2......8.8"......3.75"

like last year winter will say hello when it's time to say goodbye...this year when the ao went negative we got extreme cold...Last year when the ao went negative we got big snows...lets hope that changes this month...I'm still waiting for the big one and I think it will come this year...TWT...

analogs of hope...not counting none el nino years like 2012-13 that had a November snowstorm and February storm... 1905-06...after only 2.5" by mid January the second half had three snowstorms adding up to 17.5"... 1913-14...after only 1.6" by mid January February and March had major storms and a total of 38.9"... 1923-24...after only 1.5" by mid January the second half totaled 26.0" including an eight inch snowstorm on April 1st... 1925-26...after only 4.1" by mid January February had two major storms adding to the 28.3" that fell... 1965-66...Only a trace of snow by mid January but the last week of January got 11.6" including a KU event...February got another 6" storm in the second half of the month... 1968-69...had 8" going into the second half of February because December was good...22.2" including a major storm after February 8th... 1982-83...had 4" by mid January but February delivered 21.5" with a major storm... 2014-15...had 3.2" by mid January and 47.1" the rest of the way including a snowy March...

the historic winter of 1887-88 had three rain storms between arctic outbreaks...then came March...

that storm would be the biggest of the winter for most years....it gets lost because of the January blizzard...

snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI.... 12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina 12" 03/20/1958...-2.522....0.067.....-0.830.....El Nino 14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral- 15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral- 15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral- 10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral- 18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral- 13" 01/12/1964....0.385....0.654.....-1.180.....Weak El Nino 15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina 10" 03/21/1967....2.537...-0.387......1.142.....Weak La Nina 15" 02/09/1969...-3.114...-0.325......0.044.....Weak El Nino 14" 01/19/1978...-0.347....0.262......0.230.....Weak El Nino 18" 02/06/1978...-3.014....1.188.....-0.093.....Weak El Nino 13" 02/19/1979...-0.697...-0.042......0.254.....Neutral+ 10" 04/06/1982....0.172...-0.799.....-0.982.....Neutral- 18" 02/11/1983...-1.806....0.845.....-0.567.....El Nino 10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino 09" 02/08/1994....0.296...-0.454.....-0.483.....Neutral+ 13" 02/11/1994...-0.862...-0.589......0.927.....Neutral+ 11" 02/04/1995....1.429....1.604......0.437.....El Nino 20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina 11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina 12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina 20" 02/16/2003....0.128....0.681......0.836.....El Nino 14" 12/05/2003....0.265....0.784.....-0.197.....Neutral+ 10" 01/25/2004...-1.686....0.164.....-0.541.....Neutral+ 14" 01/25/2005....0.356....1.098.....-0.035.....El Nino 27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral- 11" 12/19/2009...-3.413....0.549.....-1.833.....El Nino 10" 02/09/2010...-4.266....0.622.....-1.136.....El Nino 21" 02/25/2010...-3.818....0.087.....-0.219.....El Nino 20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina 19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina 11" 02/09/2013...-0.700....0.403......0.219.....neutral- 11" 01/21/2014...-1.843....1.172......0.137.....neutral- 10" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral- 10" 01/26/2015....1.661....0.311......1.075.....El Nino 27" 01/23/2016...-0.085....1.687......0.082.....El Nino 09" 02/09/2017...-1.769....0.690......1.070.....La Nina 10" 01/04/2018...-1.506....0.872......0.725.....La Nina

the day the storm started...in some cases the nao was rising from a negative period... 12/21/1959...very positive...localized 12" storm in Central Park 3/3/1960 1/19/1961 2/6/1967 1/19/1978 2/19/1979 2/11/1994...very positive... 2/16/2003 2/13/2014

in January 1972 it was 62 degrees at midnight on the 13th...5 degrees the morning of the 15th...57 a few days later...