Juliancolton

My final call after poring over the mesos and ongoing trends: MGJ: 18" SWF: 15.5" POU: 13" DXR: 9.5" Millbrook: 11.5" Millerton-Salisbury: 12" Catskill-Hudson: 20" Kingston: 17.5"

The OC crew definitely are definitely best-positioned to take advantage of that banding orientation. That's your 2-3"/hr and your key to 16"+ totals. The NAM, HRRR, and especially the hi-res RGEM suggest that the WAA fronto band just blows through eastern areas from S to N in a couple hours, to be usurped by subsidence. I thiiink I may be the farthest NE of the regular posters here, so that's my biggest worry for MBY, but hopefully I can still get into the CCB before the dynamics collapse too hard.

Bx's link is a good resource. Briefly though, the chart shows a vertical slice of the atmosphere at a single moment in time (8z/3 am Thursday). The red line traces the air temperature from the surface (bottom) to, for our purposes, the "top" of the troposphere. The green line is the same concept, but concerns dew point instead of temperature. The dry slot you spotted is a good observation, and is part of what I was illustrating with the graph. Non-tropical low pressure systems are tilted northwestward with height, so if the surface low (the big red L) passes just to our south, its mid-level component may pass overhead or even to our north. When that happens, we run the risk of getting into the mid-level warm sector, replete with dry air and mild temperatures at that level of the atmosphere. Dry air can be identified by large dewpoint depressions, or lots of room between the green and red lines. In that frame, saturation is only being reached up to around 700mb, so much vertical snow-making area is lost. Basically... weak precip rates and inefficient snow growth if taken verbatim. That's after a strong burst of WAA snowfall, presumably with perfectly fine ratios, so it would still be a nice storm even in that handicapped solution. Just not feet upon feet.

+1. Not my best forecast, but at least we can take pride in having laid it out on the table for all to scrutinize. Nothing worse than the folks who strut in at the 11th hour after a week of radio silence and say they always knew it was going to be like this.

No, by definition it didn't verify. Not yet. Verification happens after the forecast period has passed.

We nowcast, for the most part. It'll be evident by tomorrow morning where the mid-level drying may hinder totals, and generally whether the strongest frontogenesis will pivot over I-84 or I-88. When friends have been messaging me to ask about totals, I tell them it'll be a good storm but not one of the greats and won't commit to numbers. That's a widely held sentiment here. Agree about the 50/50 low, I fell into the same trap in thinking it had more staying power. It's also clear that we're dealing with a sharper trough with more momentum swinging around the base than I'd anticipated up until recently, so that's playing a role, too. If this amped solution holds and southern areas bust low from mixing, folks will be quick to blame it on December climo or warm SSTs or whatever, but I think it was really just the luck of the synoptic draw. That cold powder to the coast scenario was well within reach. Alternatively, it could just be that forky literally controls the wx.

Yeah, that State College–Albany corridor highlighted by the RGEM et al. deserves it more than just about anybody. They've been real troopers through years and years of getting the shaft.

You can see the high/+ height anoms retreating as the transient 50/50 low scoots downstream. The price we pay for a tenuous NAO block. This has been a very well-forecast system overall, with a long lead time. 100 miles makes a world of difference in these wound-up coastal lows, and that's well within the reasonable track error for 2-3 days out.

Allllright, that's too tucked. That's how you really screw up your ratios for 4 out of 12 hours.

Yeah, if 6z holds serve I'll jettison the GFS and start delving into ratios and mesoscale features. I assume Albany puts us in 12-18" with the morning package.

Yup. The Euro will get it done - much better than 12z. Deform band rotting overhead as the low occludes and pulls east in the wee hours on Thursday. ~1.75" liquid along 84.

The UK mid-levels were about as good as it gets for us. That model and the Euro are a killer duo when they're in lock-step... if the Euro shows a nice hit, I'll feel a lot more confident in the potential for double-digit totals.

Ugh. I'm having such a hard time betting against the GFS. The southerly solution has made the most sense to me for almost a week now, and this isn't 2010... the GFS is good. I'd definitely at least toss it in the stew to help balance out the ridiculous Canadian QPF.

I think this is a really good first(?) call from Albany. The messaging for the interior should be that a significant but not crippling snowstorm is on the way. If expectations are kept in check, all here should have a very enjoyable Thursday morning.

No need to brag

No, per the document Rob linked to: "This measurement should reflect the greatest accumulation of new snow observed (in inches and tenths, for example, 3.9 inches) within the past 24 hours even if this total occurs at a time preceding the regularly scheduled observation time." So the goal is to get as close as possible to maximum depth from the event, OR to clear and measure after 24 hours, if required. That said, everyone seems to have their own methodology. I follow the above guideline except (for my personal records) in situations where additional snowfall is expected to follow a temporary p-type change. So if I get 3", then a period of rain, then another 3", with depth never exceeding 4", I'll record it as 6" instead of 4". Again, though, I adhere to the standard protocol more closely when reporting to the NWS.

Still 33F here, so melting resumed as soon as snowfall rates eased up. Max depth may have briefly touched 0.6" for the period, but I only ever measured .5" so there we are I guess.

@LibertyBell, today is exactly halfway between the 2017 and 2024 eclipses. Only 1,211 days left until my next serotonin molecule is released!

It's been said before, but modeled precip is often inflated along the periphery. You have to look at the mid-level forcing mechanisms to see where the northern deform band will set up and drop significant totals... north of that corridor, it turns into a non-event very quickly. Even if HPN jackpots, warning-criteria snowfall to I-90 seems very unlikely.

Spent the morning flip-flopping between rain, sleet, and snow, but now all snow and starting to form a healthy coating on all non-paved surfaces. Likely around a half inch on the board with decent snow growth at 33/31. Visibility is low, somewhere around 3/4 mile, but fog is contributing to at least some of that reduction. edit: @gravitylover it's interesting that our wx is often so similar despite the different latitudes. That extra bit of elevation makes you an honorary north of I-84er I think.

It'll be nice to enjoy C-2" tomorrow while we wait for clarity on the midweek system. The Canadian suite looked pretty sweet for most here, but of course that and a token will get you a ride on the subway...

AWT

He took up landscape photography and is really good at it. Just travels the world shooting the most awesome places without ever having to worry about showing up on Monday. Jealousy.

You're fooling nobody.

+10