It's likely false precision, but when I say POU I generally mean the airport itself rather than Poughkeepsie where people live. That's often a meaningful distinction and I think it could be in this case as well... if the banding/subsidence couplet sets up where I anticipate, there could definitely be a multi-inch gradient between the AWOS and, say, Marist, with higher totals N and W.
It's a last-ditch bid to regain some of my lost credibility after going down with the suppression ship.
Agreed, 12" is the make-or-break point west of the river. I was hoping to see some hints of a slower system, but alas, guidance continues to show a quick-hitter. The 12z HRRR gets close to saturating the column here between 8 and 9 pm and shuts off deep lift around 9 am. We have certainly seen big totals in 12-hour blitzes before. You just have to get lucky with local enhancements, without much opportunity to make up for lost ground.