Juliancolton

If the GFS is right, and the pattern does support it, any breaks of sun today will be the last until next Saturday. Crappy week coming up.

It was yet another mostly sunny day in the low-mid 70s, I dunno what you guys are talking about.

There was also the New Jersey hurricane in September of that year, although I think the northeast side was rather dry. It was a beautiful, September-like day up here once the stratus layer got scoured out. Foliage is absolutely nuts in the southern Gunks by the Basha Kill. Way better than at home.

Not yet, but they will soon: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/12/faa-drone-industry-must-wait-three-plus-years-for-new-id-system/. As it stands, they don't know... however, drones are generally flown with photography their main objective, and most people like to share their pictures on social media, so incriminating evidence is abundant. Like with most illegal activities though, enforcement typically happens only after you start causing actual problems.

"I talked to a doctor who said COVID is no big deal" is a thing I hear almost daily from deniers. It's so, so far down the list of believable stories.

Honestly, if I fly it half a dozen times a year, it's a lot. There are so few places where you are both permitted to fly and can feel comfortable flying. Even at home I live within 5 miles of a small airport, so I'm supposed to* call them and secure clearance every time I want to fly. There are different regulations for each classification of state land, so if you're within the blue line in the Catskills for instance, you have to* know whether you're on a forest preserve (can't fly), wilderness area (can't fly), wild forest (can fly with a permit), state forest (can fly), unique area (can fly sometimes), multiple use area (can usually fly without a permit but not always), travel corridor (state says sometimes but FAA says you can't fly over traffic), scenic area (no freaking clue)... and these all tend to be gerrymandered, recursive, and undemarcated. The good news is, the DEC usually has better things to do and your Barney Fife types generally don't know their intensive use areas from their state historic sites.

We probably peaked yesterday in my neighborhood as the balance is shifting toward more bare trees interspersed than green ones. The colors are nice - the best in several years, to be sure - although much potential was lost to the repeated wind and rain events. I sent my drone up late this afternoon to get a quick pano facing southwest. Not the best light, not the best quality, but it sure is purdy nonetheless.

32 here. The temp pretty much stopped falling after midnight or 1 am, likely due to high clouds streaming in. Despite those clouds, already pushing 60.

Still a slight breeze keeping the temp freefall from reaching terminal velocity. The high is sliding a bit too far south to optimize radiational cooling it appears. 36/34

I'll have to look into that for mine. It's been pretty good for the first couple years but I'm sure calibration errors grow over time.

.73" in the Stratus and .88" in the Ambient. Tipper a little tipsy?

I paddled out to get a quick phone picture yesterday before the leaf massacre started. Interestingly, the polarizing nature of the water surface makes the reflection colors more true-to-life than the real image. Need to do something about that dead ash tree before it takes out the service pole.

We're not far off from a slushy coating above like 3,000ft tomorrow night. Anyone living on the summit of Black Dome should prepare accordingly.

My sugar maples are on fire as well and taking on a much deeper shade of orange than most years. I planted two of them about 15 years ago... should have done a bunch more. They're great trees throughout the year.

You aren't fooling anyone

Absolutely bloody not. Snow before Nov 15th is the work of Satan himself.

There's always the hope(?) for something like what Islip experienced in 2014, 13.5" in 24 hours. That said, after seeing the flood damage caused by that same amount over the course of a whole week in October 2005, I think I'd rather replenish the wells in manageable increments. Not sure how my rubber band and bubblegum dam would fare against a tropical torrent.

I was always a rebel.

The wild card is Tuesday morning, when some models are increasingly suggestive of enhanced forcing from the advancing shortwave. If there's enough tropical moisture hanging around by then, we could still verify that Upton map and perhaps even do a bit better in northern areas.

I'd just sneak over the line early one morning and snip the biggest vines with a pair of loppers. Quick five-minute job. It's not a compete fix but at least the canopy will stop expanding and start dying back.

The models have trended south pretty markedly with the remnants of Delta on Monday. All-day downpours to basically a fringe job. War flashbacks

Agreed. Color seems to move inward from the outer limbs, and it can be nice at times but the goldilocks zone is never particularly deep... just sort of thin layers that get peeled off when the breeze kicks up.

Started a commissioned shoot at the old Catskill Game Farm today. That place is a bit like Chernobyl with everything left exactly as it was the day the place was abandoned. Animal feed, disposable cameras, half-full hand sanitizer dispensers (dibs if the virus flares up again) just resting in place since 2006. Anyway, foliage was getting pretty good around the foothills in that area. Just in time for the squall line this afternoon...

Yeah, it's back to awful again. I was meandering around the Bulls Bridge area in CT this morning and can only recall one tree that I would characterize as vibrant, rest either tortured green or mustard/beige/taupe/russet.

Yup, we're on the same page. Hopefully increased mindfulness to hygiene and distancing during virus season will keep flu deaths down as well.